海角大神

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said this week it would readmit a member whose energy balance doesn鈥檛 exactly live up to the storied cartel鈥檚 name.

In December, Indonesia will rejoin OPEC, the group of 12 of the world鈥檚 top oil exporters, despite the fact that the Southeast Asian nation became a net importer of oil over a decade ago, and continues to consume more oil than it produces. 聽

The apparent contradiction reflects a global oil industry scrambling to adapt to rapidly shifting energy supply and demand. Readmission to OPEC should create valuable ties for Jakarta as it works to sustain a booming population. For OPEC, it鈥檚 a concession that the era of centralized, top-down markets may be coming to a close. New supply continues to boom in the West, and demand centers shift to the East as efficient, renewable technologies curb consumption in Europe and the US. It鈥檚 why OPEC鈥檚 longstanding grip on global oil markets is slowly yielding to US shale producers and emerging energy alternatives. 聽

鈥淚ndonesia has contributed much to OPEC鈥檚 history,鈥� OPEC said in a聽statement released earlier this week. 鈥淲e welcome its return to the Organization.鈥�

The home of thousands of volcanic islands and sweltering jungles was already a member of OPEC from 1962 until 2009, when it voluntarily suspended its membership after years of rising domestic demand and falling production. Not a lot has changed since then, since Indonesia鈥檚 need for refined products ensures that it continues to import more oil than it exports. An OPEC reentry is thus widely seen as a smart move for Southeast Asia鈥檚 largest economy, where聽plans to revamp oil refineries and a rapidly growing population are spurring demand for even more imports, and consequently, more connections to the oil industry.

But many analysts are scratching their heads as to why OPEC members would allow a net importer into an organization of exporters. While some say the move is indicative of the cartel鈥檚聽desperation to maintain influence in the international oil market, others say the decision demonstrates that OPEC is evolving.

鈥淭he idea of nations that are oil exporters and others that are sheer oil importers is becoming fuzzy,鈥� says Deborah Gordon, Director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 鈥淟ook at America. Despite the oil boom, we remain an oil importer, yet we export a tremendous amount of refined product.鈥�

鈥淕lobalization is changing the oil industry,鈥� Ms. Gordon adds. 鈥淥PEC is in the center of this paradigm shift.鈥�

Saudi Arabia, one of OPEC鈥檚 main heavyweights, could be preparing for a future when it too will export less oil and import more refined products, Gordon says. Allowing a net importer to join the gang could be a good way to innovate and renew OPEC鈥檚 mission.

To be sure, control over the international oil market is still a desirable consequence of Indonesia鈥檚 reentry into OPEC. Many experts point out that Saudi Arabia has a lot to gain from obtaining a foothold in Asia. Regional stability in Asia, where the cartel could benefit from a growing demand for refined products, is important for the organization in the long run. Consequently, it is in OPEC鈥檚 interest to promote economic stability in the area and to incorporate Indonesia, which despite being a net importer, is still an important player in the global oil market.

鈥淚ndonesia is OPEC鈥檚 only member in Asia, and Jakarta鈥檚 return extends OPEC鈥檚 global coverage,鈥� says Brenda Shaffer, a specialist on energy and foreign policy at Georgetown University, in an e-mail to the Monitor. Indonesia also straddles the Malacca Strait, a major global oil transit waterway that is likely to see increased traffic as Asian energy demand grows. Indonesia鈥檚 readmission gives OPEC more control over the transport of oil from core producers to core consumers, Ms. Shaffer notes.

Meanwhile, Indonesia鈥檚 motivations are clear. Many analysts have pointed out that the country needs OPEC to capitalize on its oil resources during a time of low crude prices. Indonesia produced around 840,000 barrels of oil per day in July,聽according to the International Energy Agency. Its re-entry will bring OPEC鈥檚 membership up to thirteen, and is expected to boost the organization鈥檚 production by around 2.6 percent.

Some analysts suggest that expanding Indonesia鈥檚 output on an already oversupplied market could further erode oil prices, a fact that would be undesirable for the cartel鈥檚 oil-rich economies.

OPEC is already producing around 2 million barrels per day over its official target of 30 million bpd. Based on July鈥檚 outputs, Indonesia鈥檚 addition could nudge OPEC鈥檚 outputs up to 33 million bpd.

Still, swinging the doors back open for Indonesia could be a way for the organization to signal to the global marketplace that, despite low oil prices, its members are ready to do business

鈥淎 larger OPEC may ultimately be a stronger OPEC,鈥� Gordon says.

鈥淧ermitting membership to anyone at this point who wants to be part of the cartel creates optimism whereas drawing the circle tightly around current members could signal loss of confidence.鈥�