海角大神

The European Union officially ratified the Paris climate agreement on Wednesday, along with several member nations. Among them was a most unlikely signatory: Poland, whose reliance on coal had previously threatened the deal.

Developing nations have been especially wary of the Paris agreement, which will mandate considerable emission cuts when it goes into effect next month. They argue that strict emissions rules will stunt the economic growth of developing countries. Fully industrialized nations, they say, have already reaped the benefits of environmental carelessness.

Poland isn鈥檛 a developing country, but it is less developed than much of Europe. Could it lead way for other less-developed nations to curb emissions?

Polish energy security is based almost entirely on coal. In 2013, more than 85 percent of the country鈥檚 electricity was generated in coal-fired power plants. Coal miner unions are politically powerful, drawing support across party lines.

鈥淭here is a heavy reliance, not just because the power sector generates electricity overwhelmingly from coal, but because it鈥檚 deep in the nation鈥檚 psyche as well,鈥� says Ian Sue Wing, a professor of climate policy at Boston University, in a phone interview with 海角大神.

But will Poland have to end its fossil fuel love affair? The primary goal of the Paris agreement is to limit global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F.), compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Coal is among the most carbon dioxide-intensive fuels, up to 60 percent more emissive than natural gas. So complying with the EU鈥檚 climate target will be difficult for Poland, whose economy is so entrenched in the fuel.

鈥淓ncouraging alternative energy sources is critical, because you can鈥檛 reduce emissions while still relying on coal as a primary energy source,鈥� says Noelle Eckley Selin, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology鈥檚 department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, in a phone interview with the Monitor. 鈥淭hat just won鈥檛 work.鈥�

Why did Poland acquiesce to such a drastic change? One possibility is that the change won鈥檛 be very drastic at all.

Despite the EU鈥檚 overarching aspirational goals, nation-specific agreements are not included in the legally binding portion of the Paris agreement. Since emissions-reduction policies are nationally determined, countries have more wiggle room than you might guess.

鈥淭hat flexibility, I think, encourages countries that might be a little more reluctant to join in and do what they can,鈥� Dr. Selin says.

It鈥檚 also possible that the signing was, in some ways, opportunistic. There is a global oversupply of coal, and prices are down. Subsidies from the Polish government have propped up the coal sector, but labor is both intensive and expensive.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not a sector that was expanding, and you鈥檝e now cut the legs out from under it,鈥� Dr. Sue Wing says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just hastening a decline that was already occurring.鈥�

Despite Poland鈥檚 heavy reliance on coal, most of its plants are decades old. As those plants continue to age, their output efficiency has declined. Even without abandoning coal, Poland could reduce emissions simply by revamping its energy infrastructure.

Now, the country has an opportunity to modernize. And with EU backing, that process could be underwritten by the European Central Bank, at least in part.

鈥淚f I were Poland, I would shamelessly beg. 鈥極K, you want us to reduce emissions? We鈥檒l shutter the coal mines. But we need regional structural funds to help depressed regions as a result of these shuttered mines,鈥� 鈥� Sue Wing says.

But not all countries have the benefit of financial support. Indonesia, India, and South Africa all have large coal portfolios, but nobody to help with the adjustment. When it comes to curbing emissions, they鈥檙e on their own.

鈥淭here are much more limited options for you to buy power from someone else to keep the lights on,鈥� Sue Wing says. 鈥淵ou are faced with the painful costs of modernization as a sovereign government, facing down powerful unions while also meeting the needs of a growing population who are energy-hungry.鈥�

Even as Poland faces the same reduction challenges, the pressures are different. But in reducing its dependence on coal and developing alternative energy technologies, the country still could carve a path for less-developed countries to follow.

鈥淭he more technology that exists for alternative energy sources, and the cheaper that technology becomes, the more benefit there is for broad applicability and adoption,鈥� Selin says. 鈥淭he more countries that research or implement these limits, the better it is in general.鈥�