Trading revenge for peace in Iran
However the regime contemplates retaliating against Israel, one restraint may be the public鈥檚 desire for calm at home.
However the regime contemplates retaliating against Israel, one restraint may be the public鈥檚 desire for calm at home.
For more than a week, ever since the assassination in Tehran of a top Hamas leader, Iran has promised revenge against Israel, blaming it for the killing. The long delay has been telling for many reasons. One may be a desire for peace among many Iranians.
A hint of this mood lies in a report that President Masoud Pezeshkian pleaded with Iran鈥檚 supreme religious leader, Ali Khamenei, to avoid a direct strike on Israel. A retaliatory attack by Israel on economic targets, he said, would be devastating, according to the Iran International news site. It would also erode 鈥渃itizens鈥� trust鈥� in the regime.
That trust is already severely lost. A rigged election in June and July that brought Dr. Pezeshkian to power saw the lowest voter turnout in the 45-year history of the Islamic Republic. And Dr. Pezeshkian was the most reformist of the four chosen candidates. During the campaign, he warned, 鈥淭he gap between the people and the state has led to an aversion to taking significant decisions, which the public might not support.鈥�
After the election, Dr. Pezeshkian warned of the need to heed public desires: 鈥淲hen 60 per cent of the people do not vote, it means we must recognise that there is a flaw in our work. If we are to stand against the enemy, it is the people who will stand, and [the government] cannot do it alone.鈥�
A desire for peace is reflected in the turn against political Islam by most Iranians. A confidential government survey found that 73% support a separation of religion and politics, the BBC reported. And as more Muslims in Iran have stopped practicing their religion, at least two-thirds of the country鈥檚 mosques have closed.
Some Iranians have even taken to openly supporting Israel. Videos on social media show students purposely not stepping on Israeli flags painted at the entrance of schools. Some people have hung banners on a city street reading, 鈥淲e stand with Israel.鈥� An exiled dissident, Vahid Beheshti, told the Israeli parliament in January, 鈥淭he good news is that you have an army of 80 million Iranians who are thirsty for freedom and democracy.
If the supreme leader chooses to avoid direct revenge and only let Iran鈥檚 proxies attack Israel, it may be for many reasons. Not least could be that even the most autocratic of regimes is concerned about losing its legitimacy with the people. And when the people openly want peace, revenge is less of an option.