About those nuclear threats by Russia
Both global norms on protecting the innocent and military deterrents by the U.S. may be restraining the Kremlin from pulling the nuclear trigger.
Both global norms on protecting the innocent and military deterrents by the U.S. may be restraining the Kremlin from pulling the nuclear trigger.
As Russia鈥檚 military forces lose ground in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has escalated his threats to use nuclear weapons. The United States, he said Friday, had 鈥渃reated a precedent鈥� in 1945 by dropping atomic bombs on imperial Japan to force its surrender. Russia, warned Mr. Putin, will defend 鈥渙ur land鈥� 鈥� which he now claims includes eastern Ukraine 鈥� 鈥渨ith all the forces and resources we have.鈥�
The U.S. takes these threats seriously, promising 鈥渃atastrophic consequences鈥� for Russia as a deterrent. Yet the fact remains that ever since Russia began to lose the war soon after its invasion in February, it has not used a nuclear weapon or even prepared them for battlefield use.
One reason is that the world has rejected the 1945 鈥減recedent鈥� and created a strong taboo against the use of nuclear weapons. A global norm to protect innocent civilians from weapons of mass destruction has held pretty well. Even within Russia, 鈥渋t is still a taboo ... to cross that threshold,鈥� Dara Massicot, a former Pentagon analyst of the Russian military, told The Associated Press.
On Monday, the Kremlin even criticized a call by one of its loyalists, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who had advocated the use of 鈥渓ow-yield nuclear weapons鈥� in Ukraine. A spokesperson said the Kremlin prefers a 鈥渂alanced approach鈥� to the issue of nuclear weapons and not one based on emotion. Russia will rely on its military doctrine of using nuclear weapons only if another weapon of mass destruction is used against it or it faces an existential threat from conventional weapons.
The rise of humanitarian law since World War II 鈥� known as the Geneva Conventions 鈥� may have helped restrain Russia鈥檚 actions in Ukraine. Its troops have killed thousands of noncombatants, yet the global outcry 鈥� and Ukraine鈥檚 studious investigation of such war crimes 鈥� could be coloring the Kremlin鈥檚 thinking on nuclear weapons.
The keeper of those humanitarian laws, the International Committee of the Red Cross, has been busy trying to protect civilians in Ukraine. Last week, ICRC Director-General Robert Mardini was in Kyiv calling for a halt to military operations around a Russian-held nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. He said any release of radioactive material from the Zaporizhzhia plant would bring 鈥渃onsequences for millions of people.鈥�
More countries openly oppose Russia鈥檚 taking of Ukrainian lands and its tactics. Statements by China and India indicate those two powers do not want any military escalation. And the European Union warns that Russia鈥檚 political leaders will be held accountable for violations of international humanitarian law.
It may not seem like it to Ukrainians, but part of their defenses against Russian forces is a global norm, or international laws safeguarding the innocent. The world鈥檚 embrace of its progress against nuclear weapons can be a mighty weapon.