海角大神

Making sense of the pulsating political chaos in Pakistan is at times akin to peering into a kaleidoscope when the colors, crystals, and light are ever shifting, then trying to describe what you saw.

Earlier this month, an increasingly assertive Pakistani Supreme Court indicted the country鈥檚 prime minister, Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, for contempt because he refuses to reopen a longstanding corruption case against his boss, President Asif Ali Zardari.

Just a few weeks before that, Pakistan was swept by rumors of a possible military coup against the president and prime minister. Those rumors were followed by talk of a looming judicial coup led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry鈥檚 Supreme Court.

There is a national joke circulating that the Pakistani Army decided against a coup d鈥櫭﹖at this time because the generals persuaded the Supreme Court to do their dirty work for them.

Adding to the uncertainty is speculation about whether there will be early elections this year with the countervailing buzz that elections won鈥檛 take place until 2013.

And today there are 40 active, functional, television news channels stoking the furnace of speculation and gossip 鈥� broadcasting 24/7.

One can sympathize with the US ambassador in Islamabad or the CIA station chief trying to write home reports that stand up for slightly less than the next 48 hours.听

Imagination can run wild amid these political uncertainties and instability. Pakistan has dozens of nuclear bombs. A 2009 Gallup poll showed that nearly 60 percent of the population in this Muslim country believes the United States poses a greater threat than Islamabad鈥檚 traditional enemy, India (at only 18 percent). Pakistanis overwhelmingly believe Israel was behind the 9/11 attacks on America.

Yet the US is stuck with Pakistan 鈥� in for a penny, in for a pound. Washington鈥檚 worst nightmare is the witches鈥� brew of a Taliban-dominated nuclear Pakistan led by radical mullahs eager to fan the smoldering political embers at home. While a Taliban-dominated Pakistan is probably unlikely, that could change in a nanosecond if an outside power were to meddle in the affairs of the world鈥檚 second most populous Islamic country.听

Bruce Riedel, adviser to four US presidents, rightly warns, 鈥淭he future of the global jihad will be decided in Pakistan more than anywhere else in the world,鈥� making Washington鈥檚 quest for political stability in Pakistan an imperative.

But any pessimistic view of Pakistan, while endemic in the West, differs considerably from the perspective of Pakistani analysts who cautiously point to more optimistic scenarios. They cite half a dozen hopeful developments.

1. Despite a weak coalition civilian government, there has been no coup d鈥櫭﹖at. Shuja Nawaz of the Atlantic Council notes the military has 鈥渉eld back over the last four years, [and is] now gradually stepping back鈥� from the day-to-day political arena.听

2. A resurgent judiciary in Pakistan has emerged as a potent force. In 2007, 2008, and 2009 it played a critical role in driving Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the military dictator, from office. In a country where millions are serfs and villeins and humans are occasionally sold like chattel, the Supreme Court increasingly offers a venue for redress of grievances. Mr. Nawaz observes, 鈥淭he Supreme Court is now being seen as a great opportunity for the people of Pakistan to get a voice.鈥澨�

3. There is even a budding moderating trend on听Pakistan鈥檚 religious landscape. Hassan Abbas, another Pakistani analyst, recently commented that 鈥渢here is a renewed effort across Pakistan among 鈥� [Muslim] clerics to challenge Al Qaeda and the Taliban.鈥� It manifests itself in a reassertion of a more moderate Islam that preaches that suicide bombings are un-Islamic.听

4. Pakistan鈥檚 generals, who have thrived for decades by promoting a perceived threat from India, now seem to realize the greater threat is internal terrorism, not to mention the violent secessionist movement in the province of Baluchistan. Professor Abbas observed, 鈥淓ven the military has signed on to the reality of normalization with India because [if] you normalize with India then the Army can deal with the internal militancy.鈥�

5. The proliferation of broadcast media outlets coupled with an explosion of social media like Facebook are further reshaping the landscape. Now everyone is becoming part of the political process, challenging politicians and government institutions, including the Army.听

6. Finally, the entry of Imran Khan, the national cricket hero, into the political election melee could well meet a genuine public craving for change. Ultimately Mr. Khan鈥檚 new political movement could even challenge the stagnant two-party system.

But Moeed Yusuf, a Pakistani journalist, says hope hinges on what he calls 鈥済ood governance鈥�: the ability of the central government to deliver water, guarantee electricity, and develop civil society so that violence 鈥� rape and murder 鈥� is not the norm. Without this political stability, democracy in Pakistan remains impermanent at best.

Walter Rodgers, a former senior international correspondent for CNN, writes a biweekly column.