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Three factors that will determine Syria鈥檚 future
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Three factors that will determine Syria鈥檚 future
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Much of the analysis of the crisis in Syria looks at the upheaval through a binary lens: Either Bashar al-Assad manages to defeat his political opponents and his regime survives, or the regime collapses and a new political leadership takes control of the country.
But there is a third, increasingly more realistic, possibility 鈥� quagmire, says Benedetta Berti, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies of Tel Aviv University. That means prolonged internal violence under a weakened and failing 鈥� but neither defeated nor failed 鈥� Assad regime.
Under this framework, a better question to ask about Syria鈥檚 future would be: How long can a regime function in this 鈥渇ailing state limbo,鈥� and how long can it endure massive internal violence before imploding?
In Syria, the answer depends on these three main factors:
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The most realistic scenario in Syria is quagmire: Assad still has loyalty; the opposition is splintered, though protests continue; and the international community is indecisive, including the Arab League. But stalemate could finally prompt foreign intervention and a needed 鈥榮afe zone. Benedetta Berti, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies of Tel Aviv University, lists the three factors that will determine Syria鈥檚 future.
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