海角大神

The stock market is telling us something. But we鈥檙e all getting different messages. If you are a baby boomer, you lived through the dot-com crash of 2000 and financial panic of 2008. Retirement is not far away. If the stock market is calling to you, it probably sounds a little like Count Dracula鈥檚 treacherous invitation: 鈥淓nter freely 鈥� and of your own will.鈥澛�

Maybe you should enter. Maybe you should run.聽

If you are a member of the Millennial Generation, on the other hand, the stock market may be saying something completely different to you. You never lost money in it. There seem to be good bargains. Maybe you鈥檒l make some money. Maybe you鈥檒l lose some money. With time on your side, you can afford to experiment. (鈥淗ey, Count, what鈥檚 for dinner?鈥�)

I was there once myself. Enchanted with the new Apple Mac-intosh in 1984, I bought the first shares I ever owned: 50 of Apple at $30. Pretty smart, right? It鈥檚 now around $440. Of course, I didn鈥檛 think it would ever go that high. In fact, a few months after I bought in I had qualms and sold out 鈥� at $20. My excellent adventure in investing wasn鈥檛 profitable, but it was a life lesson. It taught me the value of buying a quality stock 鈥� or better, a balanced mutual fund via a 401(k) 鈥� and holding it. I鈥檝e faithfully followed the price of AAPL on the NASDAQ ever since, even though I鈥檝e never bought another share directly.

No matter how the market has been performing, your past performance is a pretty good indication of your future behavior. You can see that pattern on display in a Monitor cover story. We鈥檙e a long way from 鈥渋rrational exuberance.鈥� Even 鈥渃autious optimism鈥� is too bubbly a term. The best phrase for current investor psychology is probably: 鈥淎s opposed to what?鈥�

Interest rates are so low that there鈥檚 little incentive to be in fixed income. Gold and other precious metals 鈥� hedges against financial catastrophe 鈥� have been sagging as the economy slowly improves. Home prices are rising, but other than in unique markets like New York and San Francisco the era of house flipping is unlikely to return soon. Which leaves equities.

Older investors are edging back in, though in many cases they can鈥檛 shake the fears they felt five years ago (see Jonathan Harsch鈥檚 article). Younger investors are willing to experiment, to put money into the market and see what happens (see Schuyler Velasco鈥檚 article). This is not unusual.

Laurent Belsie, who has been writing about financial markets since the 1980s, recalls how in 1981, during what was then the greatest recession since 1929, market pundits worried that the stock market would never recover and that the financial system itself might be broken. And yet a year later the greatest bull market in history began. His life lesson: 鈥淚f I were Larry David鈥檚 evil twin, I鈥檇 say the message of the market is 鈥楥urb Your Enthusiasm and Curb Your Gloom.鈥� 鈥�

And so, after the latest worst financial crisis since 1929, despite economic shakiness, and amid 10,000 caveats, the stock market may in fact have a message for all of us: We鈥檙e getting back to normal. Which doesn鈥檛 mean predictable, universally profitable, or even especially stable. The market will go up and down. Some stocks will appreciate, others will tank. But five years after the bottom fell out, we can stop wondering if the system itself is broken. We can resume seeing the stock market as a place to make some money, lose some money, and learn a few life lessons.

John Yemma is editor of the Monitor. He can be reached at editor@csmonitor.com.