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Lest you鈥檙e worried that Donald Trump doesn鈥檛 like babies, he鈥檚 come out with a proposal he says will reduce the cost of their care. In a聽talk at the Detroit Economic Club, Trump proposed allowing all families to deduct average childcare costs on their income tax returns. Trump left out key details鈥攖he campaign says he鈥檒l provide more details soon鈥攂ut the plan seems unlikely to benefit many families that struggle to pay for childcare.

Working parents currently can use two tax benefits to offset child care costs: the child and dependent care tax credit (CDCTC) and the exclusion for employer-provided child care. The Treasury estimates that those provisions saved 6.9 million families almost $5.3 billion on their 2015 taxes (a relatively small amount by tax standards). The programs provided larger average combined subsidies to higher-income taxpayers than lower-income families. The reason is simple: deductions, exclusions, and nonrefundable tax credits (such as the CDCTC) don鈥檛 benefit people who don鈥檛 owe federal income tax. Moreover, deductions and exclusions benefit families with higher tax rates more than those with lower tax rates.

It鈥檚 not clear whether Trump鈥檚 plan is a deduction or an exclusion鈥攃ampaign talking points called it an exclusion while the speech referred to a deduction. Further muddying the waters on what the policy actually is, the聽New York Times reported聽that Trump鈥檚 campaign indicated there would also be a 鈥渃redit to stay-at-home caregivers鈥� and that the plan 鈥渁llows parents to exclude childcare expenses from half of their payroll taxes鈥�.

Assuming the proposal is a deduction or exclusion, the provision would be worth nothing for the many households for whom Trump鈥檚 proposed quadrupling of the standard deduction would zero out taxable income and hence tax liability. On the other hand, if the exclusion of income extended to payroll taxes, it would help low-income families. A credit would need to be refundable (able to reduce taxes below $0) in order to help most low- and middle-income families.

It鈥檚 possible that the plan would increase the exclusion for employer-sponsored child care that exists under current law. That could provide a modest benefit to lower-income households whose employers offer such plans 鈥� but historically,聽very few low-income families have benefited from such a policy.

It鈥檚 also possible that the plan would simply create an additional standard deduction for families with qualifying children tied to the average cost of child care. That would be relatively simple, but it would be of no benefit to households that already owe no income tax (before refundable tax credits). If it鈥檚 treated as a standard deduction, that would add a small element of progressivity, though, because high-income families that itemize deductions would not benefit (although TPC estimates that only 3 percent of households would itemize under Trump鈥檚 proposal).

Child care expenses can represent large burdens, particularly for low- and middle-income families.聽 But, as I noted聽elsewhere, tax subsidies aren鈥檛 generally the best way to help low-income households pay for childcare. Families typically have to pay their childcare bill weekly or monthly. A tax subsidy for childcare that comes at tax time鈥攍ong after expenses have been incurred鈥攊s likely too late to be much help for needy families.

Trump has identified a real challenge affecting working families, but his proposal would do little or nothing to help them.

Posts and Comments are solely the opinion of the author and not that of the Tax Policy Center, Urban Institute, or Brookings Institution. This article first appeared in TaxVox.