海角大神

Make no mistake, any attempt at tax reform will be a heavy lift. But an interesting behind-the-scenes debate is brewing among reformers over just how high to aim. And聽some Republicans insist that big, broad-based reform would be easier to accomplish than a more modest rewrite of the Revenue Code.

The go-long theory, favored by House Ways & Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) and others, works like this: The way to break the logjam over reform is to propose an aggressive, attention-getting, block-buster rate cut. And you finance this ambitious goal by going after everybody鈥檚 tax preferences, not picking and choosing among the oxen to be gored.

Such a strategy serves two purposes, they say. 聽First, a big rate reduction鈥攕ay, bringing the top corporate and individual rates down to 25 percent from today鈥檚 35 percent鈥攚ould generate the sort of popular enthusiasm that a more modest effort cannot. Who, the Camp camp asks, is going to get excited about knocking the top rates down from 35 percent to, say, 32 percent? It鈥檚 a yawner, they argue.

The second benefit to this strategy, supporters say, is that it forces all special interests to take a haircut on their existing tax preferences.聽 There will still be winners and losers, for sure, but because nobody would avoid losing some targeted tax breaks, it would be tougher for lobbyists to protect their clients.聽

This model is much like the 1986 tax reform, which from its very beginnings聽was an attempt to knock individual rates down significantly (Ronald Reagan鈥檚 original reform would have cut the top rate, for example, from 50 percent to 35 percent). And it is similar to the strategy of the fiscal commission chaired by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, which proposed taking the top rate down to 28 percent.

Of course, the go-prudent camp has different view: 聽It is na茂ve, at best, to think that a full rewrite of the Revenue Code is possible in the current political environment.聽 It would, they say, be something of a miracle if Congress can agree to any reform at all, much less mega-reform.

This view says take reform one聽step at a time. President Obama, for instance, has said that Congress should tackle corporate reform first. The more controversial individual provisions could be addressed later.

The cynics in the聽cautious camp have yet another argument. They say the go-long strategy is nothing more than justification for locking in big rate cuts that are both inappropriate and unsustainable in the current fiscal environment.

And, of course, there is perhaps the most likely option of all: Go home. As they have聽for decades now, policymakers聽will talk about tax reform聽even as they聽add聽more targeted tax breaks to the code.聽

But let鈥檚 pretend Congress will enact some聽reform聽in 2013. What will it do? Today鈥檚 politics is so different from 1986 that I鈥檓 not sure how many lessons of that experience apply. And while I鈥檇 certainly like to believe that big, broad-based reform is doable,聽my head tells me it probably is not.

What do you think: Should tax reformers go long, or go prudent?