海角大神

Belvidere, Illinois, is the kind of comeback community that President Donald Trump envisions for Middle America.

It鈥檚 a blue-collar Midwestern town that builds things. Less educated and poorer than the national average, it鈥檚 the kind of place President Trump hopes to rescue with tariffs intended to bring manufacturing back to the United States. But Belvidere is roaring back because of its own pluck. And those tariffs, meant to help Middle America, may cause more harm than good for this conservative city of 25,000, at least for the short term.

It鈥檚 a reminder that on the ground, economic reality doesn鈥檛 always conform to government plans and that international trade restrictions cast a long shadow.

Over lunch at the Steam Plant Family Restaurant, Mayor Clint Morris is optimistic. 鈥淭he tariffs are really incentives to bring these jobs back to this country,鈥� he says. 鈥淚n the long run, I think they鈥檒l be good ... [but] there鈥檚 going to be some growing pains.鈥�

Pamela Lopez-Fettes isn鈥檛 so sure about the wisdom of tariffs. 鈥淭he price is going to go up for the end user,鈥� says the CEO of Growth Dimensions Economic Development, a nonprofit organization for Boone County. 鈥淲e know that this is hitting farming. This is hitting manufacturing.鈥�

While tariffs may raise costs for local businesses that buy Asian steel and Canadian oats, they may help protect others from foreign competition, she adds, and it鈥檚 not yet clear whether any trade deals that Mr. Trump makes will prove to be a net positive. What is clear is that the disruption surrounding tariffs has caused a lingering uncertainty.

At first glance, Belvidere would seem well insulated from the impact of tariffs. Downtown, Victor Hernandez is getting ready for the dinner crowd at his restaurant, El Molcajete.

鈥淚t鈥檚 definitely looking up,鈥� he says of the local economy. 鈥淭he population is growing.鈥� And the prospect of the local Stellantis auto assembly plant reopening in a couple of years means good times ahead, he adds. So far, tariffs have not hit the restaurant鈥檚 food budget very much.

Across the street, the Boost Mobile phone shop hasn鈥檛 seen any impact, either. But the trade war with China has weighed on business. 鈥淲e鈥檙e aware of it,鈥� says Athziri Islas, a sales representative, and sales haven鈥檛 exactly been brisk. 鈥淧eople have been holding on to their money,鈥� she adds.

If the latest ceasefire in the U.S.-China trade war holds, iPhone prices won鈥檛 be doubling. Still, they might cost about 30% more.

Such changes matter for Belvidere residents, especially its large, low-income Hispanic population.

Lessons for the rest of America

If one lesson is that tariffs aren鈥檛 a simple fix for economic development, Belvidere offers other lessons for American communities hoping for a rebound.

Success breeds success, says Mayor Morris, a major force behind Belvidere鈥檚 still-emerging revival. Once General Mills committed to building a distribution facility in the city, it was easier to convince other companies to do the same.

Rebounds also take time, says Art Wheaton, director of labor studies at Cornell University鈥檚 School of Industrial and Labor Relations. The Stellantis facility, with an existing plant and workforce, will have taken four years before Ram pickups start rolling off the assembly line in 2027, he points out. New plants take even longer.

And communities that succeed are not returning to their nostalgic pasts. They鈥檙e reinventing themselves to fit an ever-evolving economy that is increasingly automated. When Stellantis reopens, it will provide 1,500 union jobs 鈥� a fraction of the peak employment in the plant鈥檚 heyday, says Mayor Morris.

Walmart, one of the city鈥檚 newcomers, is due to open in 2027 a new cold-storage facility that will be one of its first automated distribution centers. Some 400 to 700 employees will deliver frozen food, eggs, dairy, fresh produce, and even flowers to area Walmart stores at twice the capacity and double the speed of its traditional distribution centers.

General Mills鈥櫬爊ew facility is its first primarily automated distribution center. It employs only about 70 workers who load and unload inventory and service the machines that store and retrieve it.

Behind this city鈥檚 gradual revival

Belvidere鈥檚 turnaround preceded the Trump administration. It was led by local people who didn鈥檛 give up on their community when its major employer, the Stellantis plant, was idled in early 2023. And it was aided by the United Auto Workers, who negotiated a national contract with Stellantis that included a promise to reopen the plant.

Even before the Stellantis announcement, Mayor Morris was pushing to diversify the local economy beyond autos. He helped convince General Mills, Walmart, and Midwest Refrigerated to locate storage and distribution centers in town. Although these bigger businesses mostly deal with domestic products, they also worry about tariffs.

With two-thirds of Walmart鈥檚 products made domestically, CEO Doug McMillon nevertheless said in a statement last week that it had already raised some prices and would raise more 鈥済iven the magnitude of the tariffs.鈥�

It鈥檚 unclear whether Netherlands-based Stellantis will benefit from the Trump administration鈥檚 tariffs. Its North American operations, formerly Chrysler, might benefit from the 25% duty on imported cars and parts. But its French and Italian brands could be hit hard. In any case, the transition may prove rough. 鈥淚n the United States, the car industry is severely affected by tariffs,鈥� its chairman, John Elkann, said in a speech聽last month. 鈥淥n top of the 25% tariff imposed on vehicles, we are impacted by layer upon layer of additional compounding tariffs including those on aluminum, steel, and parts.鈥�

Rival automaker Ford says the tariffs will cost the company $1 billion, even after adjustments. Earlier this month, it raised prices on some of its Mexican-produced cars by up to $2,000. General Motors has pegged its tariff tab at聽$2.8-3.5 billion, after adjustments, and has trimmed by a fifth its estimated profits for the year.

Editor's note: This story was updated May 19, the same day as publication, to correct spellings for Doug McMillon and El Molcajete restaurant.