海角大神

Mountains of rotting squash in Florida. Midwest dairy farmers pouring milk down the drain. A South Dakota pork processing plant ordered to shut down after 400 employees tested positive for coronavirus.

Then there are the empty supermarket shelves where the flour and yeast 颅鈥撀燼nd toilet paper 鈥撀爑sed to be. It鈥檚 enough to make a shopper worry if there鈥檚 enough food to go around.

鈥淚 think the entire American public is getting a lesson in the supply chain,鈥� says Mike Troy, editorial director of Progressive Grocer. 鈥淚 bet they wish they weren鈥檛.鈥�

Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service,聽all our coronavirus coverage聽is free. No paywall.

They might especially wish they weren鈥檛 if they knew, say food supply experts, that the lessons they鈥檙e getting are likely wrong.

鈥淚 think we鈥檙e overreacting,鈥� says Chris Mejia-Argueta, director of the Food and Retail Operations Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, referring to reports of disruptions to the food industry. 鈥淚 am very certain we鈥檙e not going to run out of food.鈥�

Still, he understands why people may feel anxious if they don鈥檛 grasp exactly how the food supply chain is adapting to meet the crisis and simply see headlines about rotting vegetables and shuttered slaughterhouses. 鈥淚t鈥檚 human nature to worry about things that are a mystery to us,鈥� he says. The 鈥渂lack box鈥� aspect of the food system 鈥渃reates uncertainty. And uncertainty leads to hoarding and fear.鈥�

Those feelings were on display last week in a Massachusetts supermarket where a woman wearing a face mask rooted at the back of near-empty shelves of dried beans. She rolled her cart down the aisle, then scooped up a couple dozen cans of black beans, pintos, kidneys.

鈥淓mergency beans,鈥� she told an onlooker. 鈥淐an鈥檛 have enough. ... Or maybe this is too much?鈥� She moved as though to put some back, but then thought better of it, and shrugged. 鈥淣ah. Could be last chance.鈥�

To reduce such uncertainty, says Mr. Mejia-Argueta, 鈥渨e have to remember that the episodes we鈥檙e hearing about are local, and expected.鈥�

Stockpiles and substitutions

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration insists there are no nationwide shortages of food, though inventories may run low in grocery stores before restocking. 鈥淔ood production and manufacturing are widely dispersed throughout the U.S. and there are currently no widespread disruptions reported in the supply chain,鈥� it reported last month.

None of which means that grocery shopping will feel normal any time soon. Hoarding should fade as at-home stockpiles have been built. But shoppers may still need to substitute, says Mr. Mejia-Argueta. When a favorite Italian pasta is absent, a store brand will have to do. Instead of Cheerios, we鈥檒l eat oatmeal. Substitution helps the supply chain by spreading demand more evenly across a store鈥檚 stock.

Grocery retailers and the supply chain as a whole are busy adapting, too. They are figuring out how shoppers respond to variable supplies of items and how much they need to stock and to put on display. And, by knowing in advance what鈥檚 available from their suppliers, they can use promotions to nudge shoppers to choose some products over others, 鈥渨ithout us even knowing it,鈥� says Mr. Mejia-Argueta.

Before the pandemic, 54% of U.S. food dollars were spent on meals away from home. Now suppliers are scrambling to redirect food from restaurants and food service to retailers for at-home eating, a sudden and unprecedented shift in consumption.

From auto parts to flour cargoes

Take bacon, for example. Doug Baker, an executive at FMI, the food industry association, points out that 鈥渢he 20 pounds of bacon intended for food service may be repackaged under a store brand in 1 pound consumer packages.鈥� But that doesn鈥檛 happen overnight.

Likewise, logistics resources are being diverted into food transport. 鈥淥ne of the hardest parts now is how to move cargo from its source to where people need it,鈥� says Mr. Mejia-Argueta. 鈥淢ore truckers are needed, so truckers are being diverted into the food supply system from other sectors that are momentarily quiet.鈥� Trucks that used to carry auto parts might now be hauling flour.

As a supply-chain scientist, Mr. Mejia-Argueta has looked at what could happen to severely disrupt food production and distribution. The main risks would come from panic purchasing and hoarding, workforce shortages due to illness, and a disaster-case economic crisis.

Evidence of every one of those worst-case scenarios is already present, but not to any extent deemed threatening.

鈥淚 would tell people, to be honest, that you don鈥檛 need to worry. The supply chain will be resilient and robust enough to manage this without any issue. We will find a way,鈥� he says.

Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service,聽all our coronavirus coverage聽is free. No paywall.