海角大神

The e-reader is dead.

At least, that鈥檚 according to the blogosphere, where analysts are predicting the death of the device that was supposed to save the publishing industry.

鈥淭he e-reader death watch begins,鈥� proclaimed Slate.

鈥淲hy e-readers are the next iPods,鈥� taunted Mashable.

鈥淗ere鈥檚 what the future of reading looks like,鈥� offered New York Magazine, featuring a picture of a man reading a book not on an e-reader, but on a cell phone.聽

What鈥檚 behind the dire proclamations?聽

Analysts are citing recent moves by industry giants Amazon and Barnes & Noble as evidence of e-readers鈥� demise.聽

Amazon just launched its first smartphone, a sign that the company recognizes that more people are reading books on their phone now, not e-readers like the Kindle.聽

Barnes & Noble just announced that it鈥檚 spinning off its Nook division after revenues for the e-reader business fell 22 percent in the most recent quarter and 35 percent in the fiscal year.

And then there鈥檚 the industry watchers' predictions.

Forrester predicts e-reader sales will fall to only 7 million units in the US by 2017, compared to 25 million units sold in 2012. Ditto IHS iSuppli, which predicts US e-reader sales to plummet to 7.8 million by 2015. Meanwhile, IDC predicts聽the global tablet market will grow only about 12 percent this year compared to almost 52 percent last year.聽

Since e-books account for so much reading and sales聽鈥� the typical e-reader owner purchases and reads an average of 24 books a year compared to 15 books for a non-e-reader, according to a 2012 Pew report聽鈥� could this spell disaster for the industry?聽

Not so fast. Spinning "sky-is-falling" predictions are practically a sport in the publishing world. (See: death of the novel; death of the聽publishing industry.)

And while it is true e-reader sales are dropping off sharply, it鈥檚 not necessarily reason for alarm.

For starters, consumers may not be buying more e-readers because they bought them back in 2007 or 2008 when e-readers were hot and 鈥渆-reader models don鈥檛 really evolve, so there鈥檚 no need to upgrade,鈥� as Mashable mused.

As the website pointed out, e-readers still have a niche market. 鈥淟ike iPods, they're great gifts for kids too young to be trolling the Internet. Battery life also makes them attractive鈥�making them attractive for long plane trips.鈥�

Perhaps more importantly, however, is this point: cell phones and tablets are overtaking e-readers as the preferred e-book-reading platform of choice.聽

鈥淚ncreasingly, when people read e-books, they're doing it on their existing tablets and smartphones, not on devices built expressly for reading,鈥� writes New York Magazine.

Adds Vox News, 鈥淭oday 90% of Americans own a cellphone, 32% own an e-reader, and 42% own a tablet. This is important because most e-book consumption happens on those two devices. More than 50% of readers said that they read e-books on聽tablets or e-readers.鈥�

That鈥檚 not fantastic news for readers, as New York Magazine points out: 鈥淚f you've ever tried to read a book on your phone, you'll know why. Reading on an original Kindle or a Nook is an immersive experience. There are no push notifications from other apps to distract you from your novel, no calendar reminders or texts popping up to demand your immediate attention.鈥�

But it鈥檚 not necessarily bad for the industry. Folks are still reading e-books, they鈥檙e just reading them on different devices.

Considering the fact that many more Americans own cell phones and tablets than e-readers, this trend may even increase the potential audience for e-books.

As Slate put it, 鈥淒evices come. Devices go.鈥� To which we鈥檇 add: But reading will always endure.

Husna Haq is a Monitor correspondent.