Nate Silver's book sales skyrocket post-election
Sales of political statistician Nate Silver's book 'The Signal and the Noise' saw a surge of 850 percent 鈥� lifting it to No. 2 on Amazon 鈥� after Silver correctly predicted the 2012 election results.
Sales of political statistician Nate Silver's book 'The Signal and the Noise' saw a surge of 850 percent 鈥� lifting it to No. 2 on Amazon 鈥� after Silver correctly predicted the 2012 election results.
President Barack Obama wasn鈥檛 the only person who won Tuesday night.
New York Times political statistician and FiveThirtyEight blogger Nate Silver celebrated his own victory: successfully predicting essentially all 50 states correctly, then seeing sales of his recent book, 鈥淭he Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail 鈥� but Some Don鈥檛,鈥� soar 850 percent on Amazon.
After climbing to No. 15 on Wednesday on Amazon.com, 鈥淭he Signal and the Noise鈥� rocketed to No. 2 after Silver correctly predicted the election results. The 544-page book published in September is second only to Jeff Kinney鈥檚 popular children鈥檚 book 鈥淭he Third Wheel (Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Book Seven).鈥�
The victory is all the more significant considering Silver鈥檚 growing chorus of skeptics. Pundits like MSNBC鈥檚 Joe Scarborough and the New York Times David Brooks were critical of Silver鈥檚 reliance on poll data, writes Politico. The Washington Post鈥檚 Ezra Klein described Silver鈥檚 methodology as 鈥渓ittle more than a sophisticated form of poll aggregation.鈥�
There were a lot of eyeballs watching Silver ahead of and into election night. In the days and hours prior to the election, roughly one in five NYT.com visitors visited Silver鈥檚 FiveThirtyEight blog, which analyzes polling data to predict how many electoral votes each candidate will win. (The blog is named after the 538 total electoral votes.)
The result? Silver correctly predicted every state. (Though Florida votes are still being counted, Silver predicted the state would be very close, with a slight edge to Obama.)
Those interested in his electoral prediction would do well to check out 鈥淭he Signal and the Noise,鈥� in which Silver explains the art of prediction and outlines the methodology behind his system for determining everything from how well a major league baseball player will perform to who will win the presidency. (We listed Silver鈥檚 book as one of the 鈥�11 best books of September, according to Amazon.")
Being the mastermind statistician-soothsayer that he is, you鈥檇 think Nate Silver saw this coming.
Of course he did.
鈥淚鈥檓 sure that I have a lot riding on the outcome,鈥� Silver told Politico last month. 鈥淚鈥檓 also sure I鈥檒l get too much credit if the prediction is right and too much blame if it is wrong.鈥�
For now, Nate Silver and his 鈥淪ignal and the Noise鈥� gets our vote.
Husna Haq is a Monitor correspondent.