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Israel's Netanyahu fails to stop Iran deal. Will he pay a price at home?

Prime Minister Netanyahu has made a career of opposing Iran's nuclear program. Israeli critics fault him on style points, but fear of the deal and distrust of Obama protect him politically.

Preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power has been a pillar of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political career.

The Israeli leader, who invokes Nazi Germany to describe the threat of a nuclear Iran,聽has escalated his criticism over the past six years of US diplomacy toward Iran, while hinting heavily at the possibility of a military attack on Iranian nuclear sites.

His zealous campaign brought him before a joint session of Congress in March, sacrificing any vestiges of a working relationship with President Obama.

Now, with the conclusion of a historic deal between world powers and Iran in Vienna that leaves an Iranian nuclear program intact, albeit heavily monitored, his effort has failed. On Tuesday, Mr. Netanyahu himself called the deal a 鈥渉istoric mistake.鈥� What does that mean for his political standing at home?

鈥淗e will be perceived as a failure, because he made this his No. 1 goal, and by his own admission the agreement is a horrible agreement,鈥� says Ofer Zalzburg, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a moment of weakness for him.鈥�

Indeed, Netanyahu鈥檚 political opponents in Israel were already reminding the public of this before the agreement was announced.

Yair Lapid, who served as Netanyahu鈥檚 finance minister in the last government but is now a member of the opposition in parliament, said last week that the prime minister should resign in case of an agreement.

鈥淗e ran on this issue in three election campaigns, promising that there would be no nuclear weapons for Iran,鈥� Mr. Lapid said in an interview with the Israeli news website Ynet. 鈥淚f you didn鈥檛 prevent a deal, you should go home.鈥�

Isaac Herzog, leader of the opposition Labor party, and Uzi Arad, a former national security adviser under Netanyahu, both criticized the prime minister for alienating the Obama administration and leaving Israel with little ability to impact the agreement.

Overall, issue is not partisan

Yet, despite the criticism, the nuclear deal is not expected to imperil Netanyahu's coalition.聽

The question of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program and how to confront it is not a partisan debate in Israel in the way the question of a Palestinian state is. While many legislators like Lapid and Mr. Herzog take issue with Netanyahu鈥檚 tactic of publicly clashing with the Obama administration, they essentially agree with him that the emerging Iran deal would be bad for Israel.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 see any domestic repercussions,鈥� says Prof. Sam Lehman Wilzig, a researcher in politics and communications at Israel鈥檚 Bar Ilan University. 鈥淲e just had elections, and it was quite clear that the treaty was going to be signed.鈥�

Neither foreign nor domestic critics present a serious challenge to Netanyahu in the arena of Israeli public opinion. Though President Obama has made the case for diplomacy to the Israeli public for years, his policies in the Middle East are viewed here as naive and unfavorable toward Israel.

Criticism hasn't hurt, politically

A in May found that 49 percent of Israeli Jews consider a nuclear deal with Iran as an existential threat to Israel, and 45 percent of respondents said they don鈥檛 trust Obama to maintain Israel鈥檚 security. That said, only 16 percent of Israeli Jews believe Netanyahu should publicly confront Obama, while 46 percent say he should oppose the deal quietly.

Domestically, Netanyahu has come under fire in the past from former security chiefs for allegedly pushing too hard toward a preemptive attack,聽or viewing Iran with an overly 鈥渕essianic鈥� zeal, but that hasn鈥檛 hurt him politically.

Instead, he is credited with putting Iran鈥檚 nuclear program on the international agenda, and there are no political rivals who have presented themselves as credible alternatives to his handling of Iran, says one former aide.

鈥淎s long as there is no one in Israel that can prove to the Israeli public that his way is the better way, it won鈥檛 hurt Netanyahu,鈥� says Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu spokesman.

The prime minister is likely to continue to chide the international community over the agreement. After the deal, he鈥檚 likely to shift his focus to whether or not Iran is complying with the terms of the agreement.

鈥淗e鈥檚 going to attack everything that鈥檚 known to him regarding noncompliance, or every little statement coming out of Iran,鈥� says Tal Schneider, an Israeli political blogger and analyst.

Battle in Congress

The Israeli leader is also expected to take his fight to Congress to convince legislators to pass legislation that would override the Iran deal, legislation that Obama has already vowed to veto.

Even if the odds are long that Netanyahu will succeed 鈥� say the Republican invitation to address the earlier joint session of Congress stirred too much partisanship to sway Democrats to his side now 鈥� the lobbying effort in the US will reinforce the notion that he has done all he can to block a deal.

While its unlikely he鈥檒l visit the US personally to head up the public lobbying campaign, it is very possible that Israeli officials and diplomats will lobby legislators 鈥� with the focus on potential Democratic swing voters.

鈥淔or sure he鈥檒l go to the Congress. He has nothing to lose. He has burned his bridges with Obama,鈥� says Bar Ilan鈥檚 Professor Wilizig. 鈥淗e鈥檚 not alone out there [opposing the deal], there are others saying the same thing.鈥�

Lenny Ben David, a former Israeli diplomat in the Washington embassy, says he expects that the prime minister will lobby congressmen who visit Israel during the summer recess, and that Israeli officials and politicians will travel to the US to push opposition. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to heat up,鈥� he says.聽