海角大神

Putin鈥檚 friendship has hampered Europe鈥檚 right. Not Hungary鈥檚 Orb谩n.

For many right-wing European leaders who have wooed Russian President Vladimir Putin, the war in Ukraine has been a blow to their popularity.

Not so for Viktor Orb谩n.

The Hungarian prime minister is facing his toughest election yet on April 3, against a united opposition led by a 海角大神 conservative. Before the invasion, the public fretted about COVID-19, high inflation, migration, the defense of traditional family values versus greater LGBTQ rights, and how Budapest鈥檚 conflicts with Brussels over rule of law, corruption, and media freedoms might play out. It seemed like a formula for Mr. Orb谩n鈥檚 ouster.

But the conflict in Ukraine has pushed traditional hot-button issues into the background 鈥� and looks likely, experts say, to boost Europe鈥檚 self-styled 鈥渋lliberal鈥� strongman鈥檚 chances at the ballot box.

The latest polls suggest Mr. Orban鈥檚 Fidesz party could win by a narrow margin. The public鈥檚 logic seems to be that Mr. Orb谩n puts the economic well-being of Hungarian families first and national interests above geopolitical considerations.

鈥淲e really trust in Viktor Orb谩n,鈥� says Gy枚ngyi Bors, a redheaded hairdresser who came with her grandchildren to hear the Hungarian leader speak in Budapest. 鈥淎s long as he is in power, this country is safe and the people of Hungary are safe. He is reliable. He is authentic. And whenever we go outside Budapest, we see that Hungary is developing in a great way. Everything is getting more and more beautiful. Things are built.鈥�

While Fidesz is expected to win, it is also expected to lose the supermajority it secured in 2018 鈥� which made constitutional changes possible.

鈥淭here is room for surprises,鈥� says Stefano Bottoni, a teacher of Eastern European history at the University of Florence and author of a book on Mr. Orb谩n. 鈥淭he war totally changed the situation.鈥�

From freedom fighter to Putin鈥檚 ally

Mr. Orb谩n knows how to pivot and nail down messages that resonate with the majority of Hungarians, analysts say. He shot to political fame as an anti-communist freedom fighter who stood in Budapest鈥檚 Heroes鈥� Square in 1989 demanding that Russian troops exit Hungary. It was Mr. Orb谩n who oversaw Hungary鈥檚 accession to NATO in 1999. And for years, he insisted that Hungary should diversify its energy sources and lessen its dependence on Russia.

鈥淲e don鈥檛 want to be the happiest barracks of Gazprom,鈥� Mr. Orb谩n declared in 2007 when his Fidesz party was in the opposition.

That fiery antagonism toward Russia ended in 2010, when Mr. Orb谩n traveled to Moscow and reset relations with Mr. Putin. In the summer of 2014, he declared Russia 鈥� along with China and Turkey 鈥� as political models to follow, proudly launching Hungary on the path to 鈥渋lliberal democracy.鈥� Mr. Orb谩n鈥檚 authoritarian tendencies and sweeping reforms are today major points of concern for the European Union.

On the economic front, Mr. Orb谩n signed a contract with Russia鈥檚 Rosatom to expand the Paks Nuclear Power Plant. More recently, he invited the controversial Russian-led International Investment Bank to set up its headquarters in Budapest, reportedly providing diplomatic immunity to its staff even if critics see it as a front for Russian spying. These projects are perceived to be dear to the Hungarian leader鈥檚 heart, fruits of a carefully crafted, pragmatic relationship with Mr. Putin.

They are also why he is widely perceived as Mr. Putin鈥檚 last ally in Europe.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 not a viable position,鈥� says Dr. Bottoni. 鈥淗e seemed quite unsure for a couple of days [after the invasion of Ukraine began]. Then he assumed this new position of peace fighter. He has a pass for victory now because he has a new narrative as commander in chief for peace and many Hungarians want to hear this. The war scares people, and Hungary is a border country [with Ukraine].鈥�

鈥淭here is moral risk鈥�

The war changed the dynamic of the parliamentary campaign, as the opposition seized on Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine to present Mr. Orb谩n as Mr. Putin鈥檚 lackey in Europe. It highlighted that Hungary blocked Ukraine鈥檚 accession to NATO, and that Mr. Orb谩n stood alongside Mr. Putin weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, celebrating their 12th meeting since 2010.

It鈥檚 a matter of 鈥淓ast versus West鈥� and democracy versus greater authoritarianism, opposition leaders say.

鈥淐hoose Europe, freedom, and growth instead of East, slavery, and deprivation,鈥� urged P茅ter M谩rki-Zay, the joint opposition candidate for prime minister at a rally last month. As a small-town mayor and churchgoing father of seven, he embodies the conservative values that resonate with the right-wing Fidesz voter base but also has the support of liberal parties. Many believe he is the country鈥檚 best hope to unseat Mr. Orb谩n.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also criticized Mr. Orb谩n in recent days, blaming him for holding back on some sanctions, blocking weapons transfers to Ukraine via Hungary, and importing Russian oil and gas. 鈥淭here can be no Russian branches in Europe that divide the EU from within, that are trying to help Russia make as much money as possible even now,鈥� Mr. Zelenskyy said Tuesday. 鈥淓urope must stop listening to the excuses of Budapest.鈥�

Hungary has come out looking soft relative to the other central European nations. When the prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovenia聽鈥� which, along with Hungary, form the so-called Visegr谩d Group聽鈥� went to Kyiv to show support for Ukraine earlier this month, Mr. Orb谩n stayed home. Hungary鈥檚 weaker line toward Russia also led the rest of the聽Visegr谩d Group to snub a planning meeting of defense ministers in Budapest this week.

Still, Hungary did fall into line with the EU and impose sanctions on Russia. And for all the cozying up to Mr. Putin in recent years, Mr. Orb谩n has never called into question Hungary鈥檚 membership in NATO or the EU per se, analysts note. 鈥淲e were trying to expand our range of motion,鈥� says Dr. Bottoni. 鈥淯ntil now, it didn鈥檛 seem so risky. It seemed even a smart move, playing a bit with the Russians, with the Chinese, imagining a global role for Hungary.鈥�

Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine dramatically changed the equation. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not only risky; there is moral risk,鈥� Dr. Bottoni adds. 鈥淵ou are aligning with bloody dictatorships; you are aligning with isolated regimes. You are perceived as a kind of last ally [to Mr. Putin]. And Hungary has a very bad tradition, unfortunately, in the 20th century of standing on the wrong side.鈥�

Remembering the Soviets

The majority of Hungarians are wary of being dragged into the Ukrainian conflict. Hungary was stripped of two-thirds of its territory in the aftermath of World War I. Hungary sided with Nazi Germany in World War II largely because Adolf Hitler offered to return the land. Large swaths of the population still dream of restoring Greater Hungary, a sentiment Mr. Orb谩n plays on.

鈥淗ungary had to pay a high price for these wars,鈥� says 脕goston Mr谩z, director of the conservative think tank N茅z艖pont Int茅zet. 鈥淭hat is why the sentiment to stay neutral is so strong in society.鈥�

The stakes of a conflict with Russia are clear for the average Hungarian, even if ties between Budapest and Moscow have been at their best under Mr. Orb谩n, and even if Fidesz media repeats Russian tropes about the Ukrainian conflict. Hungary lived under communist rule until 1989.

鈥淲e know what it is like to fight with the Russians,鈥� says Endre Pokasz, a press officer tasked with showing the aircraft museum, upgraded churches, and cultural venues set up under Mr. Orb谩n in the town of Szolnok. 鈥淚f anyone thinks the Russians can be beaten easily, they are wrong. Hungary must keep the peace. What if Russia takes revenge on us? We are too small for this. If they close the gas, we will have no heating. Companies will have to stop working. Nothing will work.鈥�

Russia supplies 80% of Hungary鈥檚 gas. Mr. Orb谩n signed a 15-year deal with Gazprom last year. That makes energy prices in Hungary cheaper compared with the rest of Europe. 鈥淚t is a powerful weapon for Orb谩n,鈥� says Dr. Bottoni. 鈥淲e have to do what is good for us. You are paying less for gas and oil. Do you want to pay more? Please vote for the opposition, break down the agreements with the Russians. ... If not, we have to accept that the Russians are our partners. Whatever they do.鈥�

鈥淥rb谩n gave a very smart answer saying in wartimes, the most important thing for Hungarians is not who is responsible for the war and not moral issues. But the question is who can guarantee the freedom and peace of Hungary, and through that the prosperity of Hungary?鈥� concurs Mr. Mr谩z.

Victory for the opposition would mean a complete re-orientation of Hungary鈥檚 foreign policy toward the West. That is the fervent wish of lawyer Gabor Matlak, in Budapest. Lingering by the banks of the Danube River with his family after the opposition rally, he clung to the flag of Europe.

鈥淲e are afraid we will not be part of the EU anymore if Orb谩n wins again,鈥� he explains. 鈥淚t is our last chance for Hungary to stay in the European Union and NATO. I think Europe will not tolerate Orb谩n anymore if we are not strong enough to kick him out.鈥�