海角大神

Is Latin America's 'pink tide' turning?

The demise of Latin America's 'pink tide' of socialism has been much discussed in recent years. But there is no seismic shift back to the days of right-wing dominance; the truth is more nuanced.

A version of this post ran on聽. The views expressed are the author's own.

Much has been made of the end of the so-called聽 in Latin America. Socialism is collapsing under its own weight, and the right 鈥� referring specifically to a commitment to free markets 鈥� is getting another turn. For the right, this is a source of celebration. For the left, it spurs dire warnings.

It is popular to argue that聽this simply reflects 聽that affects economic policy. The right held sway in the late 1980s until the mid-to-late 1990s, the left solidly through the first decade of the 2000s, and now the right is back. But that binary approach tends to obscure the popular pressures leaders on both the left and right currently face.

Instead, for the most part what we鈥檙e seeing are muddled shifts toward the middle, or what we might call bounded or limited ideology: Leaders that move too far one way or the other face pushback.聽聽and many do not want their leaders exclusively embracing orthodox economic policies. They prefer an聽a la carte聽menu.

The Left leans Right

In Bolivia, President Evo Morales rails against the evils of capitalism almost as loudly as Venezuela's former President Hugo Ch谩vez ever did.聽But he has been , saving during the commodity boom, running budget surpluses, and increasing reserves while reducing poverty. Even within his own party, the Movement Toward Socialism, he is dealing with聽difficult trade-offs with , which limit how far he can dictate mining policy.

Chile has been a strange mix for years, a market-oriented economy run by self-proclaimed socialists. It is a country dedicated to limited government involvement in the economy, but also where the 鈥� long the hallmark for free marketeers 鈥撀燼re under fire聽across the political spectrum. Former President Sebasti谩n Pi帽era, who is also a top candidate to run in November 2017,聽admits that 聽that the middle class is fearful about losing its pensions, healthcare, and even its jobs.

Before she was ousted, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff聽聽such as spending caps and cuts in pension benefits. But 21st聽century austerity still requires maintaining large social programs. President Michel Temer聽successfully pushed through聽a constitutional amendment to cap spending, but left key social welfare programs like聽Bolsa Familia聽untouched ().

The Right leans Left

It might be tempting to think that if leftists are sometimes acting like libertarians, then 鈥渘eoliberal鈥� orthodoxy must have triumphed. But that鈥檚 not true either.

In Colombia, the center-right government of President Juan Manuel Santos聽聽intended to help pay for social programs generated by the peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. That comes at the same time as聽the country is seeing through free trade zones: Free trade and increased spending can co-exist. That鈥檚 also the case in Guatemala, where President Jimmy Morales 鈥� who was widely聽seen as a conservative lackey聽when elected 鈥撀爎eceived 聽for his attention to providing free medicine to the public.

When the Right tries to stay Right

In Mexico, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) first emerged in the 1920s as the protector of the revolution and then presided over the nationalization of oil in 1938. Now, a PRI government聽聽as it loosens regulations and gas prices rise.聽The 2017 budget聽is austere and聽the government is dealing with serious backlash as a result, to the point that the opposition Democratic Revolutionary Party聽has been energized聽and its former leader, Andr茅s Manuel Lopez Obrador,聽may very well be coming out of .

In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri has pushed fiscal belt tightening over the past year. He replaced Finance Minister Alfonso Prat-Gay 鈥� after Argentina failed to come out of recession in 2016 鈥� with Nicolas Dujovne,聽a fiscal hardliner. Protests聽. Mr. Macri鈥檚 honeymoon is coming to a close, and he will likely face pressure to ease back on his austerity measures. Argentina has聽 in October 2017聽that will show what Argentines think of his efforts and whether he can maintain course or is forced to adjust.

And when the Left tries to stay Left

Finally, Venezuela, the paragon of 21st聽century socialism, is now primarily a kleptocracy. Amidst hyperinflation, the聽government is issuing 聽in a confused process of currency replacement. Rank-and-file聽chavistas聽feel their government .

In sum, the region is not experiencing a pendular shift back to the late 1980s and early 1990s, when unfettered capitalism was dominant and there was ample political space for free market experiments. These days, presidents who try to recreate that era do so at their own political risk, and there is no such thing as being exclusively on the right or the left: Presidents elected from across the spectrum are left to convince the public that they are the best suited to balancing calls from both sides in this new world of limited ideology.

Gregory Weeks, PhD,聽is chair of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. He is editor of the academic journal聽,聽and he is the author of numerous books and articles.聽He blogs regularly on Latin American politics at聽.