海角大神

Venezuela sends US diplomat 'saboteurs' packing

US hopes that the post-Ch谩vez era might usher in better US-Venezuelan ties were dashed with President Maduro's announcement that he was expelling three 'Yankee' diplomats.

Over the past several months, the US government has been accused of a host of offenses by Venezuela鈥檚 leadership: Planning a Maduro, barring government planes from , causing widespread blackouts by interfering with the country鈥檚 electric grid, and even playing a role in former President Hugo Ch谩vez鈥檚 illness and death.聽

And this week, Mr. Maduro said he's had enough. He announced it was time for three 鈥淵ankee鈥� diplomats in Venezuela to go home 鈥� the second time he鈥檚 kicked out US officials this year. He found they had been 鈥�dedicated to meeting the far-right and to financing and encouraging acts of sabotage against the electrical system and Venezuela鈥檚 economy,鈥� Maduro announced on TV Monday. 聽

Seven months ago, in the lead-up to the first presidential election in 15 years in which Mr. Ch谩vez was not a candidate, there was hope that Venezuela鈥檚 new leadership would work toward warmer relations with the United States.聽

鈥淲hat is different is that [Maduro]鈥檚 someone you can talk to and with Ch谩vez that [was] impossible,鈥� Michael Shifter, director of the Inter-American Dialogue, told 海角大神 in March, noting that Maduro is a staunch leftist and would still walk the party line. 鈥淸He鈥檒l be accessible] within the party, to the opposition, and the US,鈥� Mr. Shifter said.

The US announced 鈥渋ts interest in developing a constructive relationship鈥� with Venezuela鈥檚 government, according to a statement by President Obama following the announcement of Ch谩vez鈥檚 death on March 5.

But today鈥檚 move seems to indicate little has changed when it comes to dealing with Venezuela鈥檚 鈥渋mperialist鈥� neighbor to the north.

"I have the proof here in my hands," Maduro said last night, referring to his allegations of sabotage. "Yankees go home! Get out of Venezuela! Get out of here! I don't care what actions the government of Barack Obama takes."

So, what happened to hopes for renewal in US-Venezuela relations?

To start: a foundering economy, record-high inflation, strict currency controls, shortages of basic goods ranging from toilet paper to sugar, rolling blackouts, and high levels of violence 鈥� many problems that were inherited from the previous administration.

鈥� on external forces is a time-honoured tradition鈥� in Venezuela, according to the Financial Times. And Maduro has stepped up the blame game, activating a sabotage hot line (0800-SABATAJE) last month, which the government said received more than 1,000 calls in its first week. The Miami Herald reports that Maduro鈥檚 office has in at least 144 communiqu茅s sent out since mid-April.

According to the FT, blaming outside forces is especially big now since Maduro "has made little headway in correcting the economic distortions bequeathed by , his charismatic predecessor, a failure that has also left many wondering how much longer the situation can go on."

鈥淭he breaking point in Venezuela is very moveable because the country always has oil revenues,鈥� says Luis Vicente Le贸n, a pollster and economist at Datan谩lisis in Caracas. 鈥淲hatever a government misspent yesterday, huge cash flows come again tomorrow.鈥�

Still, although the Opec nation receives about $100bn in oil revenues every year, mismanagement and policy incoherence mean its economic problems, such as an annual of above 45 per cent, continue to mount 鈥� especially when it comes to the exchange rate.

Fixed at 6.3 bol铆vars to the dollar at the official rate, and trading on the black market at seven times that, the distortion has cut the supply of dollars to Venezuelan importers, thereby exacerbating shortages of basic goods but providing quick winnings for anyone who can access dollars at the overvalued official rate.

Quirky stories on the effects of some of Venezuela鈥檚 economic policies have popped up as a result. Used cars in Venezuela actually gain in value, at times selling for more than a new car due to currency controls and insufficient vehicle supplies. And Reuters reported last month that 鈥� not so much for the voyages overseas, but because of restrictions that allow those with international plane tickets to exchange up to $3,000 at the government rate.

And hovering in the background of Venezuela鈥檚 towering list of economic woes are upcoming local elections, scheduled for Dec. 8. David Smilde and Hugo P茅rez Herna铆z write on the Venezuela blog of the聽Washington Office on Latin America this week that the elections are the first true test of Maduro鈥檚 leadership since his contested presidential victory in April. not only on 鈥楥havismo without Ch谩vez,鈥� but on the opposition without Ch谩vez.鈥�

Venezuela鈥檚 opposition, led by former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, is strongest with the middle classes in Venezuela鈥檚 major urban centers. Chavismo, in turn, has overwhelming support in Venezuela鈥檚 towns and rural areas. This means that the government will likely win a larger number of municipalities. But the opposition theoretically has the chance to win the popular vote. And it is indeed the elections as a national plebiscite on the Maduro government鈥�.

Thus the December 8, nationwide municipal elections pose a set of opportunities and risks for both sides. The Maduro government鈥檚 candidates will surely win most municipalities, but if it loses the national popular vote it will effectively have lost its first 鈥減lebiscite.鈥� This would leave the opposition strengthened and in good position to seek a recall referendum on Maduro in two years. Maduro鈥檚 standing as Chavez鈥檚 successor would be seriously weakened and probably challenged by other leaders within Chavismo.

However, if Chavismo wins most municipalities and the national vote, it could be disastrous for the opposition.

One of the officials Maduro kicked out last night was the US charge d鈥檃ffaires, who has served as the highest ranking US diplomat in the Andean country since the last US ambassador was expelled in 2010.

but we have not received any official notification of expulsions," a US State Department representative told CNN. "We completely reject the Venezuelan government's allegations of US government involvement in any type of conspiracy to destabilize the Venezuela government."