African leaders move to quash dissent before it can form
Some leaders in sub-Saharan Africa are taking swift action against protests and fear of reprisal is likely to keep potential demonstrators quiet.
As protests continue across the Arab world, rumblings of political discontent have sounded in as well. These rumblings range from serious protests in Gabon and Sudan to pro-revolution newspaper columns in countries like Nigeria. Revolution will likely not spread through sub-Saharan Africa, but leaders in Ethiopia and Uganda moved this week to block even the possibility of uprisings. These moves show that the Arab protests are making some African leaders quite nervous, particularly as their countries navigate political transitions.
In Ethiopia, journalist Eskinder Nega has compared his country to Egypt and speculated about the possibility of an . Eskinder鈥檚 remarks online and on the radio drew the attention, he says, of the :
Eskinder Nega says six heavily-armed policemen jumped from a truck on a busy central Addis Ababa street last week, grabbed him and whisked him away to federal police headquarters. He says during a two-hour detention, he was brought before a deputy police commissioner who did not identify himself, but who warned him his activities were considered seditious.
鈥淗e said, 鈥榊ou鈥檝e been trying to incite Egyptian and Tunisian-like protests in Ethiopia through writings you do on the Internet,鈥� Eskinder recounted. 鈥淎nd the interviews you give to various news outlets. And he said, 鈥楴othing similar is going to happen in this country.鈥欌��
Eskinder was jailed during the 2005 government crackdown in Ethiopia, which followed fiercely contested elections. Last year鈥檚 elections in Ethiopia did not produce the same levels of dissent 鈥� or violence 鈥� that 2005鈥瞫 elections did, but Eskinder鈥檚 latest detention suggests that Ethiopian authorities are keen to shut down any voices who say that the government lacks legitimacy and is vulnerable to the wave of uprisings.
In Uganda, which holds presidential elections today, there seems to be little chance that President Yoweri Museveni will lose, and little chance that mass demonstrations could drive him from power. Still, have talked about launching protests if Museveni wins. This threat was enough to , which 鈥渙rdered phone companies to intercept text messages with words or phrases including 鈥楨gypt鈥�, 鈥榖ullet,鈥� and 鈥榩eople power鈥� ahead of [today]鈥榮 elections that some fear may turn violent.鈥� This preemptive maneuver seems to presage a greater crackdown to come, if the opposition does indeed take to the streets.
Government crackdowns could end up being the decisive factor in stopping sub-Saharan African protest movements before they really get off the ground. Northern Sudan鈥檚 repression appears to have stymied protesters there for the most part. And the words of an that Eskinder interviewed are revealing as to the political realities there:
Could the legal Ethiopian opposition leaders try to replicate what the legal opposition triggered in Egypt? 鈥淣o,鈥� firmly answered an opposition official I queried. 鈥淭here will be a massacre, and it will also be the end of us,鈥� he said. I could have been mistaken, but I thought I had sensed alarm in his tone.
There is another important issue also: If government repression did occur, would media outlets cover it? Given how little coverage Gabon has received in comparison with Arab countries, I think it unlikely that international media would devote substantial attention to a short 鈥� but merciless 鈥� crackdown in a country like Ethiopia. Some people paid attention in 2005, of course, but not on the scale that we鈥檙e seeing with Egypt and elsewhere.
In some places, then, African activists鈥� realistic fears of death and failure are already discouraging potential protesters. Nevertheless, as I said Wednesday, everyone is well aware of the events in Egypt 鈥� including governments who are taking steps to signal policies of zero tolerance for dissent.
鈥� Alex Thurston is a PhD student studying Islam in Africa at Northwestern University and blogs at .