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After 'Birth Certificate Day,' what now for Donald Trump?

Donald Trump has ridden far on the 鈥榖irther鈥� issue. But some strategists have their doubts that he can withstand sustained scrutiny by primary voters.

Now that Donald Trump鈥檚 signature campaign 鈥渋ssue鈥� 鈥� getting President Obama to reveal his full birth certificate 鈥� is over, he faces a big question: Can he turn himself into a serious presidential contender, if that is even his goal?

Mr. Trump has ridden far on 鈥�birtherism.鈥� Some polls show him leading the large and still-forming GOP pack, based in part on name ID and his aggressive approach toward the president. Trump says he鈥檒l announce in June if he鈥檚 running, but political analysts have their doubts that he can reinvent himself into a credible candidate. This is especially so, given that his second act appears to be a focus on Mr. Obama鈥檚 academic record and whether he deserved entry into Ivy League universities.

Some high-profile public figures have asserted that Trump鈥檚 new line of attack smacks of racism.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 just code for saying he got into law school because he鈥檚 black,鈥� said 鈥�Face the Nation鈥� host Bob Schieffer on the 鈥�CBS Evening News鈥� Wednesday. 鈥淭his is an ugly strain of racism that鈥檚 running through this whole thing.鈥�

Even if Trump were to try to pivot toward a serious discussion of the issues of the day 鈥� gasoline prices, the deficit, unemployment 鈥� some Republican strategists have their doubts that the reality star/real estate mogul can withstand sustained scrutiny by primary voters.

鈥淒onald Trump has the shelf life of unrefrigerated milk,鈥� says Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

鈥淭he Republican-primary electorate in this country is very dissatisfied with the current range of choices,鈥� Mr. Ayres adds. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e going to flirt with a great many possible candidates. But there鈥檚 a great gulf between flirting and getting married. Donald Trump is the flirtation of the moment.鈥�

Indeed, a Rasmussen poll of GOP primary voters released Tuesday, the day before 鈥�Birth Certificate Day,鈥� showed Trump leading the prospective Republican pack with 19 percent. He is followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 17 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 15 percent. The fact that Mr. Huckabee polls so high while showing few serious signs that he鈥檚 planning to run is an indication of how such early polling isn鈥檛 terribly predictive.

But it does indicate who is getting voters鈥� attention. And Trump clearly has the attention-getting skills of P.T. Barnum himself. In his press appearance in New Hampshire Wednesday, where he boasted of getting the president of the United States to accede to his wishes, Trump did touch on serious issues, but fact-checkers quickly dumped cold water on some assertions.

For example, Trump claimed that the US gets no oil from Libya and that the Chinese are Libya鈥檚 biggest customers.

鈥淲rong,鈥� wrote Glenn Kessler in The Washington Post 鈥淔actchecker鈥� column. 鈥淭he United States is not a big consumer of Libyan oil, but it gets some, while China is far from the biggest customer.鈥�

Italy and France receive far more Libyan oil than China, which gets about 11 percent of Libyan oil, writes Mr. Kessler, who cites the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration.

One Republican strategist speaking on background said he would take a possible Trump candidacy seriously when and if he hires 鈥渟ome top-flight politicos,鈥� such as a respected pollster. But so far, that hasn鈥檛 happened.

Some analysts are convinced that the Trump spectacle is all about boosting ratings for his TV show, 鈥�The Celebrity Apprentice,鈥� not about a serious play for the presidency.

鈥淭rump is less than the sum of his parts,鈥� says political scientist Cal Jillson of Southern Methodist University in Dallas. 鈥淏ut one thing he has is an instinct for the camera and how to keep it trained on him.鈥�

As a potential presidential candidate, Trump has the same problem as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin 鈥� suspicion about what he actually knows about the major issues of the day.

鈥淲hat does he know about the wave of democracy in the Mideast, about European finances, let alone our own?鈥� says Mr. Jillson. 鈥淎ny fool can do a sentence or two on most major issues, but talking sensibly in paragraphs about serious issues is another matter.鈥�