Why Jeb Bush is enlisting brother George W. in 2016 campaign
George W. Bush will appear at a campaign rally for Jeb Bush Monday in South Carolina. It's a political risk but probably one worth taking.
Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush stands in front of a photo of former president and brother George W. Bush as he speaks at the New Hampshire GOP's FITN Presidential town hall in Nashua, N.H., on Jan. 23.
Mary Schwalm/Reuters
Monday night in South Carolina, ex-president George W. Bush is set to appear with brother Jeb Bush for the first time in the 2016 campaign. Former first lady Laura Bush will be there too, as Jeb! turns the dial up to 11 in advance of Saturday鈥檚 crucial Palmetto State GOP primary.
Is this a big risk for Jeb Bush? Yes, yes it is. But given his position in the polls he may have no choice. He鈥檚 lagging and time is running out. It鈥檚 quite possible that whether he drops out or continues depends entirely on South Carolina鈥檚 outcome.
It鈥檚 a risk for obvious reasons: associating with his brother only emphasizes the dynastic aspect of Jeb鈥檚 presidential run. Voters may decide the nation has had enough Bushes, to paraphrase an old remark of mother Barbara Bush.
Among US voters as a whole, the 43rd president remains a divisive figure. from last May found his favorable ratings still underwater 鈥� 52 percent of respondents had an unfavorable view opinion of his presidency, while only 44 percent had a favorable view, for a net result of minus 8.
Plus, the reappearance of W. on the national scene may reignite debate over his invasion of Iraq in 2003. Donald Trump, for one, has hammered Jeb over his brother鈥檚 decisions. At Saturday鈥檚 GOP debate The Donald charged that Bush 43 squandered billions on a needless war justified by a search for weapons of mass destruction that the administration knew did not exist.
This may reopen an argument that many Republicans wish would remain dormant. The GOP itself has mostly refrained from debating the Iraq War鈥檚 legacy, at least in public, writes right-leaning Washington Examiner .
鈥淏ut Trump has changed that,鈥� according to Mr. York. 鈥淎nd in the process he has revealed the deepest flaws in Jeb Bush鈥檚 presidential candidacy.鈥澛�
But let鈥檚 be honest 鈥� Jeb Bush is in a deep political hole regardless, and needs to do something, anything, to pull himself out.
His New Hampshire primary showing allowed him to claim a small victory, though he spent tens of millions to finish fourth, behind Ted Cruz, who spent only a fraction of that amount. Now he needs to show continued momentum or his big donors and establishment backers may defect to Marco Rubio.
And right now he鈥檚 fifth in South Carolina. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average of major state surveys, he鈥檚 attracting 10 percent of the Palmetto State vote. That鈥檚 a tick behind John Kasich, and four points or so behind Rubio.
Thus Jeb went for the W. appearance. It鈥檚 a Hail Mary, a long shot, a grasp at a straw, to mix lots of metaphors. But it鈥檚 so crazy it just might work. George W. Bush remains popular among Republican voters 鈥� the Pew poll cited above showed that about three-quarters of self-identified GOP adherents viewed Bush favorably. And in South Carolina, which has a heavy military presence and heritage, the Iraq War legacy may not weigh as heavily as elsewhere. Back in 2008, found that only 3 percent of South Carolina Republican voters thought a GOP candidate should represent 鈥渁 different approach from President Bush鈥�.
But 2008 was a long time ago, in the pre-Trump political era. Jeb Bush鈥檚 future may now depend on whether attitudes towards his brother in the state remain the same.