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Presidential debate 101: Did Obama really double the deficit?

During the arithmetical dodge ball that constituted much of the first debate, Mitt Romney said the US deficit 'doubled' under Obama. In fact, it has declined, though it is still more than $1 trillion.

Washington鈥檚 red ink was a big topic in the presidential debate on Wednesday night. That鈥檚 unsurprising 鈥� it鈥檚 an important issue, and the federal government is spending a lot more than it's taking in.聽But President Obama and GOP nominee Mitt Romney kept throwing numbers at each other like they were playing arithmetical dodge ball. For those without accounting skills it was hard to keep up.

So as part of our effort to explain some of the discussion we鈥檒l address this point: Mitt Romney said the deficit has doubled under President Obama. Is that right?

Well, let鈥檚 look at the numbers. When President Obama took office in 2009 the deficit was already running at close to a record-setting pace. At the end of that fiscal year, it was $1.4 trillion. That鈥檚 鈥渢rillion鈥� with a 鈥淭鈥�. Ouch.

Fiscal 2012 ended on Sept. 30. The final figures aren鈥檛 yet in, but at the moment the Congressional Budget Office projects the deficit will be ... (drum roll) $1.1 trillion. So smaller. Not doubled at all.

In 2010 and 2011 the deficit was a bit higher, at around $1.3 trillion each year. That鈥檚 still below the 2009 figure, certainly not double. Measured as a share of the Gross National Product, which is how economists prefer to do it, the deficit has declined during Obama鈥檚 term in office. We won鈥檛 give you the percentages because they鈥檙e just more numbers and we鈥檙e not economists ourselves.

So what did Romney say on Wednesday, exactly? He asserted this: 鈥淭he president said he鈥檇 cut the deficit in half. Unfortunately, he doubled it. Trillion-dollar deficits for the last four years.鈥�

As we鈥檝e seen, the middle part of that isn鈥檛 true. The deficit hasn鈥檛 doubled. But the trillion-dollar-four-years part is true. So is the first part of Romney鈥檚 charge. During to a joint session of Congress on Feb. 24, 2009, the president pledged to halve the deficit during his first term. Looking at the above numbers you can see that he hasn鈥檛.

It鈥檚 possible that on Wednesday night Romney misspoke or misunderstood something in his briefing book. His advisers may have wanted him to say that the US debt, not the deficit, had increased sharply during Obama鈥檚 term.

The deficit is the nation鈥檚 annual shortfall. The debt is the shortfalls of all years added together and rolled up in a big pile of red numbers that at this point is reaching toward the sky.

On George W. Bush鈥檚 last day in office the US public debt was $10.626 trillion. On Oct. 5, 2012 (you can see the debt to the penny at the Treasury鈥檚 Bureau of Public Debt ) the total debt outstanding was about $16.161 trillion.

So as you see, the debt has gone up a lot during Obama鈥檚 time in office. About聽52 percent, if you run the numbers. That鈥檚 still not doubled, though.

Of course, in this instance the numbers are simply continuing an upwards trend that began under President Bush. The debt went up about $4.9 trillion during Bush鈥檚 time in office.

Obama has been quick to blame his predecessor (plus the bad economy) for much of the nation鈥檚 debt problem. During Wednesday鈥檚 debate he said Bush used credit to pay for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars as well as the Medicare prescription drug program.

This analysis of the roots of the deficit problem is itself only partly true, as we said when we looked at it in depth in a previous post.