Romney vs. Obama: Why isn't someone pulling ahead?
Despite the gaffes, what's striking about the presidential race heading into the Republican National Convention is its stability. Obama is holding ground, despite the lackluster economy.
President Obama speaks during a campaign stop in North Las Vegas, Nev., on Aug. 22. Mr. Obama needs to remind voters why they loved him in 2008. Mitt Romney needs for voters to get to know and like him better. At upcoming party conventions, both will look to find a way to fire up core backers without alienating undecided voters.
Isaac Brekken/AP/File
Attention voters: We鈥檙e taking a break from breathless coverage of every development of the 2012 campaign to alert you to the fact that if one word described the race so far, it would not be 鈥渞oller-coaster." It would be 鈥渟table."
Yes, we nattering nabobs in the media like to pretend otherwise. In the press, every compelling story becomes a potential game-changer, and there鈥檚 a compelling story almost every day.
Remember 鈥�Etch-A-Sketch?鈥� We didn鈥檛 think so, so we鈥檒l remind you: An aide suggested that Mitt Romney might reset his positions for the general campaign. It seemed important at the time. Since then it鈥檚 been a regular Gaffe-a-palooza, from President Obama鈥檚 maladroit 鈥渢he private sector is doing fine鈥� comment to the current uproar over GOP Senate candidate Rep. Todd Akin鈥檚 statements on abortion.
But the polls aren鈥檛 whipsawing in response. In fact, they鈥檙e just bouncing around within a narrow range, taken as a whole. On June 1, Mr. Obama led Mr. Romney by 46.8 to 44.3 percent in the . As of Aug. 23, that measure was 46.3 to 45.3 percent.
The shows a similar drift over approximately the same period. Obama led 46.5 percent to Romney鈥檚 44.2 percent on May 31 in this major poll average. Currently, it鈥檚 Obama 46.0 percent to Romney鈥檚 45.1 percent.
Romney gained a bit in both those polls, but the gain is within their statistical margin of error. For extra credit, we鈥檒l kick in The New York Times FiveThirtyEight polling blog prediction of the popular vote, which over the corresponding almost-three-month period has jumped from Obama 50.6 percent, Romney 48.3 percent to ... Obama 50.6 percent, Romney 48.3 percent.
鈥淣ot much has changed in the last two months,鈥� writes George Washington University political scientist John Sides on the Monkey Cage political blog. 鈥淚n fact, explaining the lack of change 鈥� namely the stability in the polls 鈥� is probably the most important task here on the eve of party conventions, which should finally produce at least some change.鈥�
Mr. Sides has studied the statistical fundamentals of the 2012 campaign in depth for his new e-book on the election, 鈥淭he Gamble.鈥� (You can read a chapter for free .) In the book, he concludes that polls show that Obama has persistently performed well in voter measures of likeability. In addition, he鈥檚 benefited from the rise of partisan identification 鈥� among Democrats, he鈥檚 the most-liked president since John Kennedy.
These are advantages with which Obama entered the campaign. Since then, poor job numbers have weighed on his reelection chances. But other economic measures, including the stock market, haven鈥檛 been so bad.
鈥淭he unemployment rate is pretty unusual for an incumbent, but other aspects of the economy are just positive enough to give him the edge,鈥� said Sides on a recent MSNBC appearance.
Meanwhile, veteran political prognosticator that given current economic conditions it is shouldn鈥檛 be close. Why isn鈥檛 Obama losing? That鈥檚 the mystery of the polls so far, according to Mr. Cook.
Perhaps voters just can鈥檛 relate to Romney, he writes. Cook also says the Romney campaign should have begun running biographical spots much earlier, to try to establish a bond between the candidate and American voters. And Romney could have done more to reach out to Hispanic voters.
Still, incumbents just don鈥檛 get reelected with unemployment over 8 percent and poor GDP numbers, according to Cook.
鈥淩omney may still win this election. It鈥檚 awfully close,鈥� he writes.
OK, enough substance. Back to GaffeWorld! Has Joe Biden said anything interesting today?