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The one factor driving Lindsey Graham into the GOP race

With the entry of the South Carolina senator, the Republican presidential field swells to nine.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of the Senate鈥檚 most experienced defense hawks, has one motivating factor behind his long-shot candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination: It鈥檚 a dangerous world out there, and he wants to do something about it.

That, and he wants to neutralize Rand Paul.

鈥淚鈥檓 running because of what you see on television. I鈥檓 running because I think the world is falling apart,鈥� the senator from South Carolina said in an appearance on 鈥淐BS This Morning鈥� last month.

He says, for instance, that the US needs to increase its troop level in Iraq from in order to reverse gains by the Islamic State.

But does the crowded field of Republican presidential candidates really need one more national security hawk?

With the exception of Senator Paul, the libertarian who forced the expiration of surveillance provisions under the Patriot Act on Sunday, the skies are thick with GOP raptors promoting a robust foreign policy.

Chief among them is Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who recently staked out that territory in a at the Council on Foreign Relations. Senator Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, is a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and has made national security his signature issue.

With the Islamic State making gains in Iraq and Syria, China flexing its maritime muscles in Asia, Russia on the prowl in eastern Europe, and the outcome of an Iranian nuclear deal uncertain, national security challenges look more formidable than even a few years ago. The outlook has forced even the cautious Paul to change some of his positions.

But even so, foreign policy alone is not usually a winning issue in an election. It鈥檚 jobs and the economy that tend to drive presidential elections.

Senator Graham, who is announcing his candidacy in his hometown of Central, S.C., on Monday, is not deterred.

鈥淲hat I'm best known for seems to be on the mind of voters, so that's a pretty good coming-together of a profile of a candidate and the issues of the day," said the folksy Graham at fundraiser on Capitol Hill in March.

Unusual for a senator, Graham holds another title: colonel in the US Air Force Reserve (though he announced his retirement last week). He鈥檚 served in some capacity as a lawyer and judge in the Air Force for more than three decades, both at home and abroad.聽

Combined with his years on the Senate Armed Services Committee and his many trips overseas (he's just back from Israel), that puts him head-shoulders above his nearest foreign policy rival, freshman Senator Rubio 鈥� at least in terms of experience

Quite simply, Graham is the 鈥渕ost qualified鈥� of the candidates when it comes to national security, says Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona, of his best friend and colleague on the Senate Armed Services Committee, which Senator McCain chairs.

Conversely, said McCain in an interview Sunday, Paul is the 鈥渓east qualified.鈥�

It鈥檚 an opinion that both McCain and Graham state openly about Paul, who has called them part of a group of 鈥渓apdogs鈥� of President Obama. Ratcheting up his rhetoric about Graham, last week that 鈥淚SIS exists and grew stronger because of the hawks in our party.鈥� Graham鈥檚 鈥渆pic eyeroll鈥� during Paul鈥檚 disruption of surveillance legislation several days ago became its own .

鈥淚 have a theory about Lindsey Graham 鈥� I think he鈥檚 basically running to be the anti-Rand Paul,鈥� says Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics in Charlottesville. 鈥淕raham wants to make sure that Paul鈥檚 ideas are snuffed out.鈥�

Like the Democrats鈥� Bernie Sanders, Mr. Kondik says Graham is a 鈥渕essage candidate鈥� who can influence debate but has no real chance of winning the nomination.

Graham may be well known among some Republicans, but not for the right reasons, he says. Tea party folks and evangelicals don鈥檛 like him because of his habit of working with Democrats 鈥� backing Obama鈥檚 Supreme Court picks, for instance, and working on bipartisan immigration reform (dubbed 鈥淕rahamnesty鈥� by some). At one point he even worked across the aisle on greenhouse gas legislation.

Being a potential 鈥渇avorite son鈥� in the early primary state of South Carolina is unlikely to help the third-term senator in the long run, says Kyle.

鈥淓ven if Graham were to win South Carolina, where does he go from there? Generically, he鈥檚 just not a popular guy.鈥�

Graham sees his bipartisan history as an asset at a time when Americans decry a dysfunctional Washington. He also can tout his 鈥渂ootstraps鈥� story to struggling Americans: He grew up in the back room of his family鈥檚 bar and pool hall, lost both his parents while he was still in college, and legally adopted his 13-year-old sister to care for her.

Still, a foreign policy theme 鈥� even with a compelling personal story 鈥� is not enough to carve out a path to the presidency, agrees political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, of the nonpartisan Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report.聽

鈥淚 don鈥檛 see a path for Lindsey Graham. I don鈥檛 see a path for three-quarters of the people in the race,鈥� says Mr. Rothenberg. 聽鈥淏ut that doesn鈥檛 stop them.聽 And apparently he wants to talk about it.鈥�