Healthcare reform vote: Which Democrats are most vulnerable?
Some Democrats in the House of Representatives worry that a 'yes' vote on healthcare reform could cost them reelection. But history suggests the dynamic isn't that simple.
Tom Perriello, pictured here in a July 4, 2008, file photo, was one of the biggest upset winners of the election that followed that November. He's now one of the more vulnerable Democrats in the 2010 elections, and the healthcare reform vote could complicate his reelection campaign.
Rob Chaddock/Newscom
Washington
Remember Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky?
Anyone over a certain age who follows politics does. She was the first-term Democratic congresswoman from Pennsylvania who cast the decisive 218th House vote for President Clinton鈥檚 budget reconciliation bill in 1993 鈥� and then went on to lose reelection in 1994.
Today, as the Democrats work to lock down just enough votes to pass an unpopular healthcare reform bill, 鈥淢MM鈥� isn鈥檛 far from thought. No one wants to be the MMM of 2010. But there are several who could suffer that fate.
One obvious place to look is the 49 Democrats elected in 2008 from districts that voted for Republican John McCain for president. Most of them, in fact, are fine; either they don鈥檛 face tough opponents in the fall or they are otherwise secure in their seats.
Ultimately, 鈥渨e鈥檙e talking about a relative handful of members whose careers could be ended by the healthcare vote,鈥� says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville.
What's happened in the past
But even a 鈥渘o鈥� vote on healthcare by a Democrat in a Republican-leaning district isn't a guarantee of reelection. Maybe he or she is likely to lose anyway, in a midterm cycle that typically punishes the president鈥檚 party.
In 1994, six incumbent Democrats lost their seats anyway after voting "no" on the deficit reduction bill, recalls Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Hotline political website, who worked for MMM at the time. And there were six incumbent Democrats from swing districts who voted 鈥測es鈥� on deficit reduction and survived.
In fact, most Democrats survived reelection. But 鈥渢hose who lost office in 鈥�94 were disproportionately those who had supported Clinton on some tough votes and represented Republican-leaning districts,鈥� says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego.
Virginia alone has three Democratic House members currently in tough reelection fights 鈥� Tom Perriello (one of the biggest upset winners of 2008), Glenn Nye (another freshman upset winner), and Rick Boucher (a 14-term member who represents a very conservative part of the state).
Any of them could think, 鈥淲ell, I鈥檓 going to lose anyway, so why not take one for the team, and vote for healthcare reform?鈥�
But it鈥檚 not so simple. No individual is guaranteed to lose, no matter how tough the odds. For example, in Congressman Perriello's race, there could be a 鈥渢ea party鈥� candidate or two in the mix, splitting the opposition and allowing Perriello to win reelection with 45 percent of the vote.
Charges of flip-flopping may accompany a changed vote
Another potential problem is the flip-flop charge: Some say that if a member voted 鈥渘o鈥� on health reform the first time around, it鈥檚 safer to stick with 鈥渘o.鈥�
鈥淚s it better to take a hit and vote the same way, or take a different kind of hit by having to explain why you flip-flopped?鈥� asks Mr. Sabato. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e better going with your instincts, whatever they are.鈥�
Aside from wanting sweeping reform of the healthcare system, Democrats are eager for a major legislative victory to run on in November. But for Democrats from conservative-leaning districts, the best option may be to run on the Republican argument: 鈥淚 could not support this expensive, big-government program.鈥�
In that case, a Republican challenger won鈥檛 be able to use healthcare to beat up the Democratic incumbent as effectively as if the member had voted 鈥測es.鈥�
But there鈥檚 no guarantee that this Democrat would gain support by voting 鈥渘o,鈥� says Mr. Jacobson.
On Wednesday, one of the big news flashes of the day came from Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) of Ohio, who switched his 鈥渘o鈥� vote on healthcare to 鈥測es.鈥� But Congressman Kucinich can afford to flip-flop. He occupies a safe Democratic seat. And his reason for changing his vote was atypical: He had opposed the Democratic reform plan because he prefers the more liberal government-run 鈥渟ingle payer鈥� healthcare system.
Most of the Democrats voting 鈥渘o鈥� on healthcare are in conservative-leaning districts.
And on a lighter note, former Congresswoman Margolies-Mezvinsky remains in the news for an entirely different reason: Her son Marc Mezvinsky is set to marry former first daughter Chelsea Clinton this summer.