海角大神

Can McCain rally the GOP?

In his speech Thursday he must knit the party together 鈥� and reach out to independents.

When John McCain takes the stage here Thursday to accept his party鈥檚 presidential nomination, he will have to be as much political acrobat as statesman.

The Republican National Convention was supposed to be an uncomplicated week of rousing speeches and raucous parties. Instead, it has been blown off course by two storms 鈥� one real, the other the revelation that the unwed teenage daughter of Senator McCain鈥檚 conservative running mate is pregnant.

Republicans, more than Democrats, needed a full four days of nationally televised razzmatazz to excite voters in a tough year for the GOP. Instead, their convention has been a tangle of rewritten speeches and muted celebrations that has competed with hurricane Gustav for airtime.

The latest Gallup poll shows the Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. Barack Obama, with his widest lead ever over McCain. McCain鈥檚 job at the Xcel Energy Center Thursday night will be nothing less than to take control, say political analysts.

With few of the warm-up acts that preceded Senator Obama鈥檚 rock-star acceptance speech at the Democratic convention last week, McCain will have to summon a forceful case for his candidacy, draw together disparate factions of his party, reach out to independents, and distance himself from an unpopular president who is still his party鈥檚 putative leader.

If a speech Tuesday night by first lady Laura Bush was any indication, he is also likely to underscore his vice presidential choice 鈥� Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin 鈥� in a play for working-class women in swing states where support for Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton ran deep.

The task will be particularly daunting for a man more at ease in a town hall than in a 650,000-square-foot hockey arena.

鈥淚t will be interesting to see how the Republicans pivot back into convention mode,鈥� says Martin Johnson, a political scientist at the University of California, Riverside. 鈥淭he really tough thing for him is he鈥檚 got these two audiences: a core Republican audience inside the convention hall and the audience on national television,鈥� some of whom will be tuning in to the race for the first time.

鈥淭he finesse he has to get right,鈥� Professor Johnson adds, 鈥渋s simultaneously offering a continuation of the things the base of the party likes and communicating to a national audience that he is someone different and can be a meaningful change agent.鈥�

Though hurricane Gustav has proved a bedeviling distraction for convention planners, McCain is likely to allude to his response 鈥� a visit to a Mississippi command center, consultations with Gulf Coast governors, and a call for supporters鈥� help with relief efforts 鈥� to reinforce his image as a steady hand in times of crisis.

But at least in this speech, he is likely to stop short of explicit contrasts with President Bush, whose handling of the response to hurricane Katrina three years ago McCain sharply criticized on the campaign trail earlier this year.

鈥淗e has an opportunity to throw George Bush under a bus,鈥� says Rick Perlstein, a historian and author of 鈥淣ixonland: The Rise of a President and the Fracturing of America.鈥� 鈥淏ut his coalition is so fragile that he can鈥檛 even risk that.鈥� He has to tread so delicately in so many different directions.鈥�

Obama devoted stretches of his speech in Denver last week to tarring McCain as a sequel of the Bush administration. What remains to be seen is just how hard McCain will punch back Thursday.

A parade of speakers here Tuesday night gave clues to attack lines that may come into sharper focus as the week wears on.

鈥淪enator Barack Obama is a gifted and eloquent young man who I think can do great things for our country in the years ahead,鈥� Sen. Joseph Lieberman, a Connecticut independent, told the convention hall. 鈥淏ut my friends, eloquence is no substitute for a record, not in these tough times for America.鈥�

Fred Thompson, a former Tennessee senator and GOP presidential candidate, said that the Senate 鈥渉ad more than its share of smooth talkers.鈥�

Delegates interviewed at the Xcel Center Tuesday night said McCain鈥檚 aim Thursday should be introducing 鈥� or reintroducing 鈥� himself to voters only now paying heed to the race.

鈥淗e鈥檚 got to talk about jobs, he鈥檚 got to talk about energy, he鈥檚 got to talk about eliminating the debt, and he has to do it in a way that doesn鈥檛 like an economics professor,鈥� says Ralph Seekins, an auto dealer and former state senator from Fairbanks, Alaska. 鈥淗e has to do it in a way soccer moms can relate to 鈥� 鈥楬ow鈥檚 it going to affect my life?鈥欌��

Lori Sotelo of Mercer Island, Wash., the chairwoman of the King County Republican Party, says she thinks that McCain鈥檚 trump with undecided voters is his biography as a decorated Vietnam war hero.

鈥淗is life story I believe will resonate,鈥� she says. 鈥淗is personal narrative speaks volumes about who he is.鈥�