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GOP candidates in the Tea Party crosshairs

The Tea Party movement is taking aim at Republican incumbents, including Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch, Sen. Olympia Snow of Maine, and Sen. Scott Brown of Massachusetts. Will it succeed in unseating them?

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by almost any measure, but these days that鈥檚 not enough to shield him from the right. There鈥檚 a credible challenger in the wings and a real possibility that the Utah senator could become the first establishment casualty of the 2012 season.

The Tea Party movement first demonstrated its clout last year by knocking off Hatch鈥檚 Utah colleague, . Now the movement鈥檚 activists have served notice that they are displeased with several big-name Republican senators. Hatch, like most of them, is cultivating the grassroots, moving rightward, and hoping to fend off a serious primary challenger.

It鈥檚 already too late for that in Indiana, where state treasurer Richard Mourdock is taking on . And it may be too late for Hatch, who could well face , a self-described 鈥渄efinite maybe鈥� who will decide after Labor Day whether to run. Others drawing conservative scrutiny and complaints are Olympia Snowe of Maine, Scott Brown of Massachusetts, and Bob Corker of Tennessee.

RELATED: How well do you know the Tea Party? Take the quiz

What all this amounts to is nothing less than a redefinition of conservatism鈥攐r, at least, the brand of conservatism acceptable to those who have the power to boot Republicans who have long toed what used to be the party line. The no-longer-acceptable column includes a willingness to negotiate or form partnerships with Democrats, or even to back the aims of the last Republican president.

The GOP establishment is standing behind its incumbents. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is holding a fundraiser for Hatch on Monday in New York.

Some of Cornyn鈥檚 primary picks鈥攔emember ?鈥攄idn鈥檛 fare so well in 2010. But a wholesale housecleaning of GOP incumbents before the general election looks unlikely for now. One reason is the lesson of 2010, not just for senators trying to preserve their careers but also for the conservative groups deciding where to focus their money and activism.

Viability is a watchword for FreedomWorks and the Club for Growth, two of the three juggernauts that use similar criteria for their primary picks. As for the third, the Tea Party Express, founding strategist Sal Russo told me his group is willing to back candidates with 鈥渁 tougher course鈥� to victory, but 鈥渃learly we鈥檙e trying to win elections.鈥�

Hatch has a solidly of 89 from the American Conservative Union. But the logic of campaigns is narrow and sometimes unfair. Hatch is from a state so Republican that anyone who could best him for the nomination would be a near shoo-in in a general election (unlike, say, swing state Nevada or Democratic-leaning Delaware). And Chaffetz is eminently credible.

He鈥檚 no Sharron Angle (who lost to Harry Reid in Nevada), Christine O鈥橠onnell (who lost to Chris Coons in Delaware), or Joe Miller (who beat Lisa Murkowski in Alaska鈥檚 GOP primary but lost when she ran as an independent).

RELATED: How well do you know the Tea Party? Take the quiz

The Club for Growth endorsed Angle last year but was disappointed in her general-election campaign. 鈥淲hen you鈥檙e on that big a stage and you鈥檝e got that many people offering you help, we were hopeful that she might have taken some of it,鈥� Club President Chris Chocola told me.

While Chocola defends the Angle endorsement, it鈥檚 notable that his first pick against an incumbent this time around is Chaffetz, promising him money in a recent email headlined 鈥淩un Jason Run.鈥� 鈥淚f we make an endorsement, we ask our members to invest their money. We鈥檙e not going to ask our members to do that if we don鈥檛 think a candidate鈥檚 viable,鈥� Chocola says.

Utah has a multi-tiered nomination process that starts with neighborhood caucuses, proceeds to a convention, and then, if no candidate wins 60 percent of delegates, to a primary. Utah strategists and the senator has been reaching out to the new Tea Party activists in his state for years and is building a strong organization. 鈥淚 intend to win, and we will win,鈥� he told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. He dismissed Chaffetz as a publicity hound, adding, 鈥淚 think he could possibly be a halfway decent congressman in the House if he would concentrate on it.鈥�

Many of Hatch鈥檚 alleged sins, as reeled off by Chaffetz and the Club for Growth, involve his support for such George W. Bush initiatives as TARP (the bank bailout), the Medicare prescription-drug benefit and the No Child Left Behind education act. He also backed earmarks (unfashionable these days), raising the debt ceiling (once considered a responsible vote to avoid default), and a 2007 extension of the State Children鈥檚 Health Insurance Program. Hatch was not an outlier on the children鈥檚 health program鈥斺�攂ut that was the least of it. Ten years earlier he had joined Ted Kennedy to create it.

Hatch, who declined a Daily Beast interview request, has apologized in a half-hearted way for ; introduced a balanced-budget bill with fellow Utah Sen. Mike Lee; and insisted on spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt limit. 鈥淎nybody who says I鈥檓 no fiscal conservative is, I don鈥檛 want to be rude, but they鈥檙e lying,鈥� Hatch told Hewitt. But Chocola says 鈥淯tah can do better.鈥� FreedomWorks, which helped Lee oust Bennett in 2010, also anticipates being active in Utah this year. Meanwhile Lee, a Tea Party favorite, has said he .

One of Hatch鈥檚 selling points to voters is that he鈥檚 in line to chair the Finance Committee if Republicans take over the Senate鈥攏o small matter since the panel handles taxes, trade, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Chaffetz is not impressed. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e not voting right,鈥� he told me, 鈥渟eniority doesn鈥檛 matter.鈥�

He says Hatch was 鈥渟wept in鈥� with Jimmy Carter in 1976 after a campaign in which Hatch asked Utah voters, 鈥淲hat do you call an 18-year senator? You call him home.鈥� Hatch already has been in office twice as long as that long-ago opponent and wants to stretch it to 42 years with a seventh term. 鈥淚t鈥檚 time for a new generation to take a stab at these problems,鈥� Chaffetz says.

Indiana is another hotbed of unrest. Most of the state鈥檚 GOP establishment has endorsed Mourdock and all three national groups are looking at the race. Lugar, facing what conservative 鈥溾�� blogger Scott Fluhr habitually calls 鈥淟ugargeddon,鈥� has removed his name from the to help children of illegal immigrants. He recently signed on to a bill to replace the income tax with the 鈥�,鈥� a national sales tax.

How鈥檚 it playing? Russo says Lugar 鈥渃ontinues to express his hostility鈥� toward the Tea Party movement. FreedomWorks also expects to play in Indiana. The Club for Growth is still cogitating after what Chocola called 鈥渁 disappointing first quarter鈥� in Mourdock fundraising. 鈥淢ourdock needs to prove he can raise the resources to be competitive,鈥� he says.

Snowe, who won her 2006 race with an astonishing 74 percent of the vote, is the most liberal of the quintet. She was a crucial vote for President Obama鈥檚 stimulus program in 2009 and supported a health-reform bill in committee. Just recently she voted against the budget pushed by Paul Ryan, expressing concern about its plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program. It can鈥檛 hurt Snowe to cast herself as a protector of the medical program for the elderly in a state with the highest median age. Nor does it hurt that Maine鈥檚 Tea Party governor, Paul LePage, has endorsed her. It鈥檚 personal; her first, late husband helped the dirt-poor, French-speaking teenager get into college, and he has never forgotten.

So far Snowe has two challengers hoping to capitalize on conservative frustration: Scott D鈥橝mboise, a small businessman aligned with the Tea Party, and Andrew Ian Dodge, who heads Maine Tea Party Patriots. Neither is getting much traction. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think either one of them is electable,鈥� says Pete Harring, founder of MaineTeaParty.com. 鈥淚 honestly don鈥檛 see anybody in the state strong enough to overthrow Olympia Snowe.鈥� Russo praised Snowe for backing a balanced-budget amendment and repeal of Obama鈥檚 health law. The Tea Party Express is 鈥渙pen to her seeing the light,鈥� he says.

Corker, who has negotiated with Democrats over financial reform and auto bailouts, is a of RedState.com founder Erick Erickson. 鈥淗e pushes the Senate GOP left and toward capitulation. He is contemptuous of conservatives,鈥� Erickson wrote last month. Yet Corker fits squarely in his state鈥檚 bipartisan tradition of centrists, and so far no challenger has surfaced.

The same is true in Massachusetts, where Brown won a stunning upset last year for Kennedy鈥檚 old seat. 鈥淚 find it hard to believe you could do much better than Scott Brown in Massachusetts,鈥� says Adam Brandon, a spokesman for FreedomWorks. 鈥淢aybe you could prove me wrong. That鈥檚 the unknown. What is known is that we could have the ground game in Utah and Indiana to be successful.鈥�

That鈥檚 pragmatism talking. There鈥檚 been no donning of hair shirts over 2010, even from Russo, whose group backed the losing Angle-O鈥橠onnell-Miller trifecta (he says the candidates weren鈥檛 鈥渁s bad as some people said they were鈥�). But will these groups go to the mat next year for conservative challengers who are inexperienced or erratic, who display sub-par fundraising, communication, or organizational skills, in hard-to-win liberal or moderate states? Probably not. For the moment, at least, it seems the maturing Tea Party movement has raised the bar.

Jill Lawrence is an award-winning journalist who has covered every presidential election since 1988. Most recently, she was a senior correspondent and columnist for PoliticsDaily.com. Her other positions have included national political correspondent for USA Today and national political writer at The Associated Press.

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