海角大神

Will cruise industry recover? Some passengers yearn to reboard.

Jules Sher, a retired insurance agent in San Juan Capistrano, California, still remembers his first Caribbean cruise in 1973. 鈥淚 love cruising. I love to get away and to unwind,鈥� he says.聽

Like other pre-pandemic cruisers, though, he鈥檚 had to rethink his travel plans. He recently canceled a 61-day Pacific cruise scheduled for September, figuring it may not sail anyway. But he reckons the worst of the COVID-19 outbreak may already be over in California, and is itching to get back to sea.聽

鈥淭he minute things turn around I鈥檒l be on a cruise,鈥� he says.

His wife Carole鈥檚 voice crackles in the background. He laughs into the phone. 鈥淪he says she鈥檚 not going with me,鈥� he explains.

That, in a nutshell, is the cruise industry鈥檚 acute challenge: What would it take to convince travelers, particularly the retired boomers who cruise the most, that it鈥檚 safe to sail again, and will their wanderlust eventually win out, despite their health fears?聽

Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service,聽all our coronavirus coverage聽is free. No paywall.

Just as cruisers like Mr. Sher and his wife are weighing the risks of cruising during a global pandemic, so too are leisure travelers in general, prolonging the pain for near-empty hotels, airlines, and theme parks as summer season looms.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not just the cruise ships. Are people willing to travel? Are people willing to go to聽restaurants? Movie theaters? If they鈥檙e not prepared to do those things then they鈥檙e not getting聽on cruise ships,鈥� says Andrew Coggins, a professor of management at Pace University who聽studies the industry.

For now, the cruise industry is in free fall, unable to sail and sinking into debt, amid lawsuits from聽passengers sickened on cruises and indelible images of people stuck at sea after ports聽refused to take COVID-19 patients. Even as states begin easing lockdowns, cruise operators聽can鈥檛 restart until a 100-day no-sail order by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expires in July.

Cruise ships carry around 30 million passengers a year, and while families and younger聽travelers book short cruises and may take summer vacations on board, the industry relies on聽retirees to fill longer routes, particularly in winter and spring. Some retirees book back-to-back聽sailings and barely touch land. 鈥淧eople like to cruise. The industry has a very high repeat rate,鈥� says Professor Coggins, a retired聽U.S. Navy commander.

But medical experts say that loyal demographic is most vulnerable to COVID-19 because of their age and underlying聽health conditions, putting the industry in a bind as it tries to rebuild.

Arthur Birken鈥檚 next cruise is booked for November, a 20-day sailing from Athens to Dubai, via聽Israel and Egypt. 鈥淚鈥檝e always wanted to see the pyramids,鈥� he says. After that, he and his wife聽Judy had committed to three more long-haul cruises in 2021.

But Mr. Birken, a retired judge in Broward County, Florida, is loath聽to board, not until there鈥檚 a vaccine or cure for a deadly virus that spreads in confined spaces聽like cruise liners. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 want to be with crowds. It鈥檚 not just on the ship. What about the聽excursions? What if you get sick in the middle of nowhere?鈥� he asks.

Cruise companies are vowing to sail again. On Monday, Carnival for new excursions starting at the beginning of August. Companies have promised a raft of measures, from advanced ventilation and enhanced聽health screenings, to win back customers. At least one carrier now requires all over-70s to聽produce a doctor鈥檚 note about chronic conditions before boarding. Other changes may include聽ending self-service buffets and social distancing in restaurants and other venues.

A social-distancing cruise may be a tough sell, says Chris Owen, a travel agent in Florida. 鈥淎 big聽part of the ship is the shared experience,鈥� he says. For an industry that needs roughly 85%聽occupancy to break even, it鈥檚 also not clear they can afford to carry fewer passengers.聽鈥淯ntil there鈥檚 a vaccine the cruise business doesn鈥檛 have a chance of coming back to where it聽was. Not a chance,鈥� he says.

Ellen Silverberg, a retiree in Boston who winters in Florida, says she won鈥檛 take another cruise聽until the pandemic ends. 鈥淲e鈥檒l stay home for a while,鈥� she says. Even traveling back to Boston聽isn鈥檛 risk-free. She debated with her husband if it was safer to drive than fly. Then she thought聽about the motel stops and decided to stay put for another month.

Mr. Owen had clients on board the ill-fated Princess Grand, which was held for several days off聽California in March amid a coronavirus outbreak. Two passengers died and over 100 tested聽positive. Princess Cruises has denied negligence in not warning passengers about an outbreak聽on the previous voyage that may have been spread by cruisers who stayed on board.

Even that debacle probably won鈥檛 deter diehard cruisers, says Mr. Owen. 鈥淭he clock is ticking.聽We鈥檝e only got so many years left to do these things.鈥�

Singling out cruises as infection hotspots is unfair, given how hard crews work to sanitize ships聽and keep passengers safe, says Harry O鈥橠onoghue, an Irish musician who performs often on聽cruises. 鈥淚t鈥檚 cleaner on a cruise ship than on an airplane. We all know that,鈥� he says.

Mr. Birken agrees. He鈥檚 not flying anymore and is resigned to a year or more without travel. But聽he may soon have a new companion. 鈥淲e haven鈥檛 gotten a dog because of all the traveling聽we鈥檝e been doing,鈥� he says. 鈥淣ow we鈥檙e [talking about] getting one.鈥�

Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service,聽all our coronavirus coverage聽is free. No paywall.