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Can a terror prison spark a boom?

US Officials say a prison for 鈥楪itmo鈥� detainees will boost rural Thomson, Ill. Don鈥檛 count on it.

It鈥檚 a familiar story: Faced with shuttered businesses, dying downtowns, and consolidated schools, rural communities across America grab the chance to host a new enterprise, maybe a meatpacking factory or a landfill. In Thomson, Ill., it鈥檚 a local prison revamped to house terror suspects from Guant谩namo Bay and other federal prisoners.

Hopes are high that the proposed facility will turn Thomson鈥檚 fortunes around. 鈥淲e need to be safe, we need to give people hope, we need to give people opportunities to keep their families here,鈥� says Jerry 鈥淒uke鈥� Hebeler, village president. 鈥淭his is our shot to do all three.鈥�

The Obama administration is equally upbeat. Under federal management, the Thomson prison would create as many as 2,960 jobs and 鈥渓ocal residents will be excellent candidates鈥� for half of them, says a report by the president鈥檚 Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). It predicts that the county unemployment rate, 12.1 percent in December, could fall by as much as four percentage points.

But such predictions are almost always overstated, the hoped-for benefits mostly illusory, say researchers who have studied the economics of rural prisons. Studies over the past decade conclude that prisons have done little to change the economic realities of rural communities.

鈥淢ost of the communities that I鈥檝e talked to have been somewhat disappointed after they see what happens,鈥� says Thomas Johnson, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri in Columbia. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 a mistake. But they don鈥檛 find the economic benefits that were suggested.鈥�

In some circumstances, research suggests, prisons have actually done harm.

鈥淭he towns that get prisons, especially the most desperate communities, tend to be worse off,鈥� says Gregory Hooks, a sociology professor at Washington State University and author of two studies of rural prisons. 鈥淭hat was a surprise.鈥�

Mr. Hooks and other researchers have used census data to compare rural counties with and without prisons. These studies show that prisons fail to increase total employment, raise incomes, or reduce poverty. It鈥檚 not clear why. One reason may be that local people get relatively few prison jobs because they lack the skills and qualifications needed to work as guards or administrative staff. Researchers also speculate that prisons may displace other economic activity.

Moreover, unlike factories and other economic development, prisons generate little extra business. They are centralized institutions with their own distant suppliers. 鈥淧risons have had nowhere the positive economic benefits people say they will have,鈥� says Boyce Sherwin, a former director of community development in Malone, N.Y., a town with three prisons.

Before the 1980s, most prisons were built in urban areas. But the 1980s and 鈥�90s saw a prison boom in rural areas, in part because stricter sentencing guidelines spawned a growing population of prisoners. Rural towns welcomed and even competed for prisons. Some struggling areas, like Michigan鈥檚 Upper Peninsula, have become centers of the prison industry.

No surge in Rush City

When Minnesota opened a prison in Rush City in 2000, some officials predicted big economic benefits. But it generated fewer jobs for residents and less economic boost than many hoped. 鈥淚 guess I鈥檝e not seen where it鈥檚 made any difference in our city,鈥� says Mayor Nancy Schroeder.

In recent years, the opening of new prisons has ebbed. Budget woes have forced some states to close prisons. But new prisons are still under construction, such as a federal prison in Berlin, N.H.

The White House says studies 鈥渃onfirm the essential point that prison openings tend to raise employment and prosperity in the local community.鈥� Researchers object that their studies confirm no such thing. 鈥淭here鈥檚 nothing in the literature I鈥檝e seen to justify the optimistic predictions the CEA makes,鈥� says Hooks. (Neither the White House nor the CEA responded to requests for comment.)

Decision may await federal budget

Illinois aims to sell the Thomson prison, built in 2001 and virtually empty. The White House鈥檚 fiscal 2011 budget plan includes $237 million to buy and renovate the prison. But Republicans oppose moving Guant谩namo prisoners to the mainland and may try to block the purchase. President Obama has said he can鈥檛 close the facility as soon as he had promised.

Experts on rural development say that prisons are just one example of a number of controversial enterprises, including landfills and power stations, that end up in desperate rural communities. These communities have alternatives, they say.

鈥淭he strategies that work build on assets in the community rather than pulling in something it doesn鈥檛 have,鈥� says Deborah Tootle, community development professor at the University of Arkansas and president-elect of the National Association of Community Development Extension Professionals. A prison 鈥渋s going to bring in a few jobs. [But] is it going to benefit the community over time? It鈥檚 really a question of scale and time.鈥�