Taliban tussle over Mullah Omar: Is a succession crisis brewing?
The head of the Taliban's office in Qatar resigned Tuesday, issuing a statement that seemed to criticize the group鈥檚 new leader, a week after longtime leader Mullah Omar was confirmed dead.
Syed Mohammad Tayab Agha鈥檚 resignation has fueled speculation that the Afghan militant organization faces a succession crisis following the disclosure of Omar鈥檚 2013 death. The infighting comes at a crucial moment, amid ongoing peace talks between the Taliban and Afghan government. A round of talks , but delayed at the Taliban鈥檚 request.聽
Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansour was chosen as Omar鈥檚 successor, but several members of Omar鈥檚 family and senior leaders of the Taliban have reportedly Foreign Policy reports.聽
Agence France Presse called it the 鈥渂iggest leadership crisis in recent years鈥� and said it
Pakistan-based leadership called the speculation about internal disagreements 鈥渆nemy propaganda鈥� and told followers to ignore it.
"We have tried our best to distribute materials through our official websites, Facebook, Twitters accounts, cellphone messages and other means, but enemy spies are constantly suspending and restricting our access,鈥� the , according to the Associated Press.聽"So help us in this regard by sharing and distributing all materials as widely as possible.鈥澛�
Mr. Agha, the director of the Taliban鈥檚 political office in Doha, said in his resignation statement that it was a mistake for Omar鈥檚 death to have been covered up. The decision to hide it has been attributed to Mullah Mansour, who was Omar鈥檚 longtime deputy and was chosen by the Taliban鈥檚 supreme council.
鈥淭he death of Mullah Omar was kept secret for two years,鈥� Agha said, according to Agence France Presse. 鈥淚 consider this a historical mistake."
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He said previous leaders appointed outside the country going back to the invasion by Soviet forces, and the government set up after the Taliban were ousted, had "very bad repercussions."
The leader should be appointed "in presence of the courageous mujahideen in their strongholds inside the country," Agha said, referring to Islamist fighters.
The Doha office was set up in 2013 in part to facilitate peace talks.
Reuters reports that it鈥檚 unclear how serious the threat to Mansour鈥檚 leadership is, but that at the very least the talks will likely be delayed while he consolidates power, adding that several commanders have ceased fighting until 鈥渢he situation is clarified.鈥�
Mansour is perceived as being close to Pakistan, which is mediating the talks. More hardline commanders have pressed for their abandonment and a focus on fighting. Some militants see it as Pakistan 鈥渇orcing鈥� the Taliban into talks, according to AFP.
Paul Miller, the director for Afghanistan on the National Security Council under the Bush and Obama administrations, writes in Foreign Policy that Omar鈥檚 positions were incompatible with those of the US and Afghan government and that with him gone, the hard-line faction is weaker. But the Afghan government鈥檚 position , he says.聽
That does not mean peace talks with the Afghan government are imminent. The Afghan government鈥檚 negotiating position is also weak, and getting weaker by the day because of the planned withdrawal of U.S. troops by the end of 2016. The Afghan government will be weak after the U.S. withdrawal and more prone to make concessions to the Taliban, and they know it, almost certainly why peace talks have made little progress since Obama announced his withdrawal plans.
In a separate piece, Foreign Policy writes that the Doha-based leadership has been edged out by Mansour鈥檚 close relationship with Pakistan and the decision to hold the latest round of peace talks there.
But Mansour is going to struggle to hold the movement together, according to FP, because Mansour lacks the legitimacy Omar had as a perceived 鈥渓eader of the faithful.鈥�
Far more than al Qaeda, and perhaps even more than the Islamic State, the various competing interests inside the Taliban have remained nominally united due to the belief that Omar is the聽amir ul momineen聽(leader of the faithful). Omar鈥檚 spiritual status has long been the only thing holding the Taliban together. Mansour may have important friends in Pakistan but he is no leader of the faithful, and on the eve of negotiations, the Taliban seem closer than ever to splitting wide open.
