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[Updated Friday 8:15 a.m. EDT]听Secretary of State John Kerry鈥檚 decision to travel to London for a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov Friday suggests the US has some hope 鈥� rapidly fading though it may be 鈥� that Russia can still be talked back from the precipice over Crimea and its aggressive stance toward Ukraine.

The results of a referendum in Crimea Sunday on whether the largely pro-Russia peninsula should break away from Ukraine and rejoin Russia are hardly in doubt, most analysts say. With 60 percent of Crimea鈥檚 population ethnic Russians 鈥� not to mention the ubiquitous yes-to-Russia billboards in Crimea鈥檚 cities 鈥� a pro-Russia vote seems a foregone conclusion.

Less certain, if only slightly, is exactly how Russia will respond to that vote. So it is really the future course of Russia 鈥� and in particular of Russian President Vladimir Putin 鈥� that Secretary Kerry, President Obama, and other Western leaders are trying to influence.

Kerry had a phone conversation with Mr. Lavrov on Thursday in which he 鈥渞eiterated the United States鈥� concern about the upcoming referendum and made clear there will be costs if Russia continues to take escalatory steps,鈥� a senior State Department official said. The 鈥渟teps鈥� include a fresh round of military maneuvers that have thousands of Russian soldiers gathered on Ukraine鈥檚 eastern border in what are seen in Kiev as deliberate intimidating measures. 听听听

A day after Kerry told members of Congress that 鈥渋t can get ugly fast if the wrong choices are made,鈥� German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday told the Bundestag, Germany鈥檚 lower house of Parliament, that Russia risks 鈥渕assive鈥� political and economic consequences if it does not reverse course and enter 鈥渘egotiations鈥� on the Ukraine crisis.

Calling Russia鈥檚 military occupation of Crimea 鈥渁 breach of international law,鈥� Ms. Merkel added, 鈥淟et me be absolutely clear: The territorial integrity of Ukraine is not up for discussion.鈥澨�

She issued an economic warning to Russia, saying that the European Union would have no choice but to alter its relationship with Russia if Moscow sticks to its current 鈥渋llegal鈥� course in Ukraine.听

In his meeting with Lavrov, which got under way Friday morning Eastern time, Kerry is expected to deliver two message: first, that Russia can still defuse the crisis by entering talks with Ukrainian officials and addressing the legitimate concerns of eastern and southern Ukraine鈥檚 ethnic Russians through dialogue; and second, that Russia will face heavy 鈥渃osts,鈥� as Mr. Obama repeated Wednesday, if it does not join the international community by 鈥渞ethinking鈥� its approach to Ukraine.

Neither message is new. Indeed, Kerry鈥檚 decision to decline an invitation to visit Moscow this week appeared to be based on the responses the US received from Mr. Putin to proposals Kerry presented to Lavrov last week for addressing the crisis.

It would make little sense for Kerry to travel to Moscow just to hear that the proposals 鈥� including the idea of a 鈥渃ontact group鈥� of countries to guide negotiations 鈥� were rejected, State Department officials say.

By the same token, Kerry鈥檚 last-minute decision to travel to London suggests that perhaps the phone conversations he has had with Lavrov in recent days offer some glimmer of hope for progress. White House spokesman Jay Carney said Wednesday that it is 鈥渁ppropriate鈥� for Kerry 鈥渢o make the case again for why a far better choice ... would be to de-escalate and for Russia to pursue its interests through the means available to it that are legal and have the endorsement of the international community.鈥�

Another reason for what is being characterized as a 鈥渓ast-ditch鈥� effort to get Russia to take what the US calls the 鈥渙fframp鈥� from a deeper European conflict over Ukraine: Events could deteriorate very fast after Sunday鈥檚 referendum.

EU foreign ministers are slated to meet Monday to consider the EU鈥檚 next steps, including a package of sanctions that could be adopted later in the week. In his Senate testimony Thursday, Kerry suggested the administration would back European action with steps beyond the sanctions it has already announced.

But Russia was not sounding Thursday like a power seeking to defuse the crisis.

In Moscow, Deputy Economy Minister Alexey Likhachev said his country is prepared to 鈥渕irror鈥� any sanctions or other punitive measures the US and the EU impose on Russia.

Ukrainian officials in Kiev were set on edge by more than 8,000 Russian troops carrying out 鈥渢raining exercises鈥� along the border with Ukraine Thursday. Kerry told a Senate committee that 鈥渙ur hope is not to create hysteria or excessive concern鈥� about Russia鈥檚 military maneuvers and potential for further military action in Ukraine. But the military exercises appeared to be leaving some Ukrainians fearful that aggressive moves against other parts of eastern Ukraine could be in the offing.

At the same time, some members of Russia鈥檚 Duma said the parliament could act in as little as two weeks after a pro-Russia result in Crimea鈥檚 referendum to annex the Ukrainian peninsula.

The final decision on reincorporating Crimea into Mother Russia would then be Putin鈥檚.