Ukraine crisis: What鈥檚 the point of US military activity near Russia?
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| Washington
If stepped-up US military activity with NATO partners such as Poland and Lithuania seems like a paltry response to Russia鈥檚 military occupation of Ukraine鈥檚 Crimea province, there鈥檚 a reason for that.
The modest US show of force 鈥 a handful of jet fighters in Eastern European skies and a single warship to the Black Sea 鈥 is intended more to calm the nerves of former Soviet republics and satellites nervous about Moscow鈥檚 actions in Ukraine, regional experts say, than it is designed to send Russia into retreat with its tail between its legs.
The US military activities 鈥渁re clearly meant to reassure our allies about the US commitment to NATO and to them,鈥 says Paul Saunders, executive director of the Center for the National Interest, a Washington think tank with expertise in US-Russia relations. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really an effort to demonstrate to the new NATO members in particular,鈥 he adds, 鈥渢hat the US is standing with them.鈥
As Heather Conley of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington notes, there鈥檚 even a term for what the US is looking to accomplish with its ramped up NATO-area activity. 鈥淚t鈥檚 really meant as 鈥榮trategic reassurance鈥 as they say in NATO parlance,鈥 says Ms. Conley, director of CSIS鈥檚 Europe Program.
鈥淣o one wants to escalate this situation, no one sees a military solution to what鈥檚 happening in Ukraine,鈥 she says. 鈥淏ut we do want to reaffirm to our Eastern European allies that NATO is going to be there for them.鈥 聽聽
The Pentagon announced this week that it sent six F-15 fighter jets to Lithuania to beef up a NATO air patrol mission over the Baltic states, and that it was expanding joint aviation exercises with Poland. On Friday the Navy announced it has sent a guided-missile destroyer, the USS Truxtun, into the Black Sea 鈥 where Crimea is located.
The Pentagon said the deployment of the Truxtun, which is part of an aircraft carrier strike group, was scheduled before the Ukraine crisis exploded in February.
The heightened concern of the 鈥渘ew NATO members鈥 鈥 those who have joined the Atlantic Alliance since the collapse of the Soviet Union 鈥 was displayed this week when Poland requested an emergency meeting of NATO鈥檚 North Atlantic Council.
Poland cited the mutual-defense provision that figures in the Alliance鈥檚 founding charter, the same provision NATO invoked in defense of the US after the 9/11 attacks. Turkey cited the provision last year when it sought deployment of Patriot missiles along its border with Syria.
In calling for the NATO meeting, Polish diplomats said Poland felt threatened by Russia鈥檚 鈥渁ggression鈥 in Ukraine and decided 鈥渨e could not wait any longer鈥 to seek a show of support from NATO.
鈥淩ussian military activity is not limited to blatant provocations and unlawful intervention in Crimea, or the threat of massive invasion on the territory of sovereign Ukraine,鈥 Poland said in requesting the NATO council meeting. It went on to note that Russia had also been holding a series of military exercises near the Polish-Russian border 鈥 one, it said, with Russian President Vladimir Putin in attendance.
Secretary of State John Kerry underscored the importance of responding to the jitters running through Eastern Europe when he said at a press conference in Paris Wednesday that the Pentagon鈥檚 actions were 鈥渃oncrete steps to reassure our NATO allies.鈥
What the US military steps do not portend, everyone agrees, is a US military intervention in the Ukraine crisis.
The US spent the entire cold war avoiding a direct military confrontation with the Soviet Union, says Mr. Saunders, of the Center for the National Interest, so it鈥檚 implausible that it would engage in a military confrontation with Russia in this case, he says.
鈥淩ussia is a nuclear-weapons state, and that makes it very unlikely the US would undertake military action against it,鈥 he says. 鈥淭he Russians understand we鈥檙e not going to risk a nuclear escalation over a part of Ukraine where some 2 million people live,鈥 he adds.
The downside of that reality is that it leaves Russia assuming that its actions are not going to get much push-back from the outside world, including the US.
鈥淭he administration has a real credibility problem with Russia,鈥 Saunders says.
That 鈥渃redibility problem鈥 afflicting President Obama extends beyond Russia to many US allies and partners, others say. Indeed the broader message of the US military steps in Eastern Europe may be that the US is an engaged and robust power that stands by its partners, the CSIS鈥檚 Conley says.
The problem for Mr. Obama is that such steps still leave him looking like the 鈥渞eactive鈥 president who will respond to international crises as they come up but who otherwise is focused on the domestic front, she says.
鈥淭he sense out there is that foreign policy has been a distraction to this president, who wanted to focus on domestic issues,鈥 Conley says.
鈥淓uropean leaders expressed concerns from Obama鈥檚 first term that there was a gap between rhetoric and actions, and then when the Arab awakening arrived there was a much broader sense that foreign and security policy was 鈥榠ntruding鈥 on the things that he wanted to accomplish,鈥 she says.
Beefing up NATO activities is a credible reaction to Russia鈥檚 Ukraine gambit, Conley says. But what many people around the world 鈥渁re still waiting to hear鈥 from Obama, she adds, is not just 鈥渞eaction鈥 but the president鈥檚 foreign and security policy vision.