Do the US and Iran need trust to strike a nuclear deal?
| Istanbul
As the聽first signs of thaw between the United States and Iran聽arise, can decades of angry rivalry, vicious rhetoric, and violence give way to some form of d茅tente?聽
In the days since presidents Barack Obama and Hassan Rouhani made a historic 15-minute phone call, the highest-level direct contact since before Iran鈥檚 1979 Islamic revolution,聽both Tehran and Washington have shared an obsession with the word 鈥渢rust鈥� 鈥� specifically, how little trust each has in the other.聽
But is trust necessary 鈥� or even possible 鈥� after years in which both sides humiliated and undermined each other, racking up lists of grievances that have calcified into unbending narratives of the enemy?聽As Iran and the six world powers prepare to meet in Geneva next week to continue talks on Iran's controversial nuclear program, some portray any progress 鈥� more so than reaching a new level of trust 鈥� as a critical first step.聽
鈥淭he problem is both sides go in with these assumptions about the other side,鈥� says John Limbert, a former senior US official who witnessed the sharp end聽of the US-Iran聽divide. He was among the 52 US diplomats held hostage in Tehran by militant students for 444 days from 1979-81.
That seminal crisis is but one of a long list of events that have kept both sides far apart and crying foul: a CIA-orchestrated coup in 1953, US support for Saddam Hussein in the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, a covert war to slow Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, and Iran鈥檚 targeting of Americans in Lebanon and more recently聽Iraq, along with steady threats to US-ally Israel.聽
Those actions 鈥渃onfirm what you already believe, [that] the other side is infinitely evil, duplicitous, and arrogant, and will do anything to harm you,鈥� says Amb. Limbert, who was US deputy assistant secretary of state for Iran until 2010. 鈥淎nd if you look at statements and events over the past 10 or 20 years, you鈥檙e going to find things that are going to prove that.鈥�
'Deception is part of the DNA'
Iran wants a deal within six months. When Mr. Rouhani spoke at the United Nations on Sept. 25, he said Iran 鈥渄oes not seek to increase tensions鈥� with the US, and that both could 鈥渁rrive at a framework to manage our differences.鈥澛燞e said his surprise election victory provided 鈥渁 unique opportunity 鈥撀爁or us all.鈥�
Later, Rouhani told CNN that he had a message of 鈥減eace and friendship from Iranians to Americans,鈥� who are 鈥渧ery near and dear to the hearts of the Iranian people.鈥�
Yet a different tone came from Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader聽on Saturday, when he said aspects of Rouhani鈥檚 New York diplomacy were 鈥渘ot appropriate鈥� 鈥撀燼n apparent reference to the Obama-Rouhani phone call.
鈥淲e are pessimistic about the Americans. We do not at all trust them,鈥� Ayatollah Khamenei told graduating Army cadets, according to a translation on his official website. The US 鈥渋s an arrogant, unreasonable and untrustworthy government which is completely under the influence of the international Zionist network.鈥�
On the US side, Mr. Obama聽noted in his UN speech, also on Sept. 25,聽that US-Iran 鈥渕istrust has deep roots,鈥� though a nuclear deal can be a 鈥渕ajor step down a long road towards a different relationship, one based on mutual interests and mutual respect.鈥� He assured the Iranians that the US is not seeking regime change.聽
As Iran鈥檚 top nuclear negotiator from 2003-2005, Rouhani negotiated a suspension of Iran's uranium-enrichment with the European Union. But at the same time, Iran increased its number of assembled centrifuges, though it did not use them to enrich. Rouhani has since stated that move was in keeping with the original deal, but critics see it as evidence of trickery.聽
When US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman聽was asked聽while testifying before the Senate last week聽if the US trusted Rouhani聽after those events of a decade ago,聽she replied,聽鈥淪enator, I don鈥檛 trust the people who sit across the table from me in these negotiations,鈥澛�
Referring to that period, Sherman, who is the top US negotiator at the nuclear talks, said, 鈥淲e know that deception is part of the DNA.鈥�
A middle way?
Iranian officials indicate there may be a preferred middle way that can account for past grievances and recognize today鈥檚 mutual interests.
In his writings, Iran鈥檚 new Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has said US ties would be useful, but can 鈥渘ever be friendly.鈥� And in the past week, his deputy Abbas Araghchi struck a similar note.
鈥淒efinitely, a history of high tensions between Tehran and Washington will not go back to normal relations due to a phone call, meeting or negotiation,鈥� said Mr. Araghchi, according to Iranian media. 鈥淲e never trust America 100 percent. And, in the future, we will remain on the same path.鈥�
US Secretary of State John Kerry stated last Thursday that it would be 鈥渄iplomatic malpractice of the worst order鈥� not to attempt a deal with Iran. However, he said, 鈥渘othing we do is going to be based on trust, but is going to be based on steps.鈥�
But can either side accommodate worldviews that, almost by definition, require US-Iran rivalry and conflict?
鈥淭he question of trust boils down to 'what are the ultimate objectives of one side or the other?'鈥� says an Iranian academic now in Washington, who asked not to be named.
One model may be Russia and the US, which cooperate and have embassies, but also 鈥渞eally have deep-seated differences,鈥� says the Iranian academic.
鈥淣o matter how normalized the Islamic Republic becomes, being a revolutionary state, you can鈥檛 divorce that history from the Islamic Republic, of being the champions of the downtrodden, of the poor in the region,鈥� adds the academic.
This also leaves space聽in Iran's political sphere for聽hardliners like Brig. Gen. Masoud Jazayeri,聽who have not hidden their distaste for Rouhani's US outreach.聽 The senior Revolutionary Guard commander says the upcoming聽Nov. 4聽anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the US Embassy聽will see the "Death to America" chant "resonate across the cities and villages of Islamic Iran."
鈥淭he crimes of the Americans and international Zionism in confronting the great nation of Iran will ever be erased from minds and memories,鈥� Brig. Gen Jazayeri said.
Former hostage Limbert recalls a Persian proverb: 鈥淥ne crazy person, one fool, can throw a rock down the well. And a thousand smart people can鈥檛 get it out.鈥�
鈥淭here are going to be setbacks,鈥� says Limbert. 鈥淧eople are going to say stupid things, people are going to do stupid things. Are both sides good enough to keep focused on what they want to accomplish?鈥�
Total recalibration
Both Obama and Rouhani face conservative backlash at home for even attempting to reach out.聽Those聽political forces have successfully torpedoed past engagement efforts.
鈥淚t鈥檚 very, very vulnerable, the situation. Each side expects the other to make an impressive move and [if] they don鈥檛 see it they [will] again fall back to, 鈥業 told you so, it won鈥檛 work, they are not sincere.鈥� It鈥檚 fragile,鈥� says a veteran Iranian analyst in Tehran who asked not to be named.
鈥淪ome things send a very clear message, like when Obama said, 鈥榃e are not after regime change,鈥� that was very big,鈥� says the Tehran analyst. 鈥淭his is a new chance, a new opportunity [with] a seriousness鈥he like of which I don鈥檛 remember for decades.鈥�
For the Iranians, any turn toward the US also requires a recalibration, after 34 years of revolutionary anti-Americanism codified by chants of 鈥淒eath to America鈥� and flag burning among hardliners at聽Friday聽prayers and official rallies.
After toppling the pro-West Shah in 1979, revolution leaders vowed to be beholden to 鈥渘either East nor West.鈥� US and Soviet flags alike were painted on streets to be walked and driven over in contempt. In recent years, Iran has also led an 鈥淎xis of Resistance鈥� against US and Israeli influence in the Middle East, which includes Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Palestinian militant groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
In a fierce denunciation of the US last February, Khamenei listed a lifetime of grievances and ruled out direct talks.
鈥淚 believe the Leader is not ready鈥� for US-Iran rapprochement, says an Iranian diplomat who asked not be named. 鈥淔or 30 years we told the world that the US was the great enemy. If all of a sudden we reverse that, everything changes.鈥�
