Will Iran's charm offensive to the US be blocked - by Iran?
| New York
Can Iran鈥檚 current charm offensive be stalled or blocked by the Revolutionary Guard and other elements of the regime?聽
Hardliners in Iran increasingly fear that the new centrist President Hassan Rouhani鈥檚 promise to engage with the US and the West 鈥� especially to bring new 鈥渢ransparency鈥� to resolve Iran鈥檚 nuclear case 鈥� will compromise revolutionary ideology.听
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly declared it a duty of every power center in Iran to back Mr. Rouhani鈥檚 government, this week invoking a 7th-century peace deal to say Iran was ready to show a 鈥渉eroic flexibility.鈥澛�
Yet the Revolutionary Guard has carefully pushed back, saying 鈥渉eroic flexibility鈥� should not be interpreted as 鈥渞etreat from fundamental rights.鈥澛�
鈥淥ur fundamental framework is permanent and it is inflexible and our ideal goals will never be reduced,鈥� the deputy聽Islamic聽Revolutionary Guard聽Corps (IRGC)聽chief Hossein Salami said in recent days on Iranian state TV. He included 鈥渢he right to have peaceful nuclear energy鈥� which 鈥渃annot be modified.鈥�
鈥淗eroic flexibility does not include passivity or surrender,鈥� said Brig. Gen. Salami, according to a translation the Al-Monitor website.
Hardline聽elements have a history of stopping past Iranian attempts by Iran to reach out, but this time may be different, analysts say.听
Khamenei and Mr. Rouhani have both addressed the powerful Revolutionary Guard in recent days, clearly reminding them that the revered father of Iran鈥檚 1979 Islamic revolution prohibited a political role for any military or security force 鈥撀燼 role that the Guard has increasingly assumed for itself over the last decade.听Despite signs of grumbling from some commanders, the IRGC issued a statement saying it "will support any measure within the framework of the Supreme Leader's strategies."聽
A history of spoilers
The history of spoilers to past outreach attempts is well known. Former President Mohammad Khatami praised Americans and their history, but his bid for d茅tente abroad (and looser social restrictions at home) was stymied by hardliners at every turn.听
Iran helped the US defeat the Taliban and form a new Afghanistan government in late 2001, for example. But the discovery by Israel in January 2002 of a ship carrying Iranian weapons destined for Palestinians in Gaza prompted President George W. Bush to include Iran in his 鈥淎xis of Evil鈥� speech.
Could聽a spoiling action happen again? Not too effectively, some say, because Khamenei himself has backed Rouhani鈥檚 outreach strategy in ways that he never stood behind Khatami. That view is also a turnaround for Khamenei, who earlier this year berated the US聽and ruled out any direct talks.
鈥淭he extremists over here have lost their teeth,鈥� says a source in Tehran who has observed Iranian politics for three decades. 鈥淎ny [spoiler] action anyone tries like that would be cut off at the knees right away. Whoever would do that would be pretty much ending their own career.鈥澛�
The new approach is already bearing initial fruit: In New York today, Iran鈥檚 Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. That prompted an invitation to meet in coming days with foreign ministers of world powers negotiating with Iran 鈥撀爄ncluding US Secretary of State John Kerry.
Ms. Ashton said today: 鈥淚 was struck by the energy and determination on the part of the minister.鈥�
'Reject' optimism
But for those in Tehran wary of compromise, the feel-good factor beamed to world capitals by Iran鈥檚 new government is a dangerous risk.
Brig. Gen. Masoud Jazayeri said Iran "must view America with a pessimistic look and any optimism in confronting America's suggestions and propaganda鈥ill be rejected." Former IRGC chief Mohsen Rezaei warned that "we must be careful that the enemies do not take advantage of our heroic flexibilities."
Some media echoed those sentiments.听The hardline Javan Online website said 鈥撀爄n a story titled: 鈥淭he wall of mistrust will not collapse with a diplomatic smile鈥� 鈥撀爄t was premature for some to be 鈥渙verwhelmed with joy鈥� at the prospect of new talks.听
Even beyond the chances of a nuclear deal and speculation that President Barack Obama might bump into Rouhani in the halls of the UN 鈥撀爓here both will address the General Assembly聽tomorrow聽鈥� the Javan writer Ali Rezaei said it was wise to remember the US-orchestrated coup in Iran in 1953 and other US historical actions against Iran.听
The 鈥渄ifferences and conflict with America is not about the nuclear issue or human rights [but] our main issue with America is the accumulation of several decades of American interference and Iranian resistance,鈥� wrote Mr. Rezaei,聽.听
US naysayers
There is no shortage of naysayers on the US side of the equation. Some in Congress are pushing for more sanctions against Iran, on top of the crippling array already in place.听
The result is that the 鈥渂ehavior of the Americans鈥� is contradictory to easy friendship, Rezaei writes, listing events that 鈥渢oday has built a dark image of the American government in the minds of the Iranian people, a dark image that with a diplomatic smile will not be erased.鈥�
Still, could that translate into spoiler action from Iran, or indeed from the US side?聽
鈥淎ll it would take is a really negative, big story鈥� 鈥� such as the Karine A 鈥� 鈥渁nd we鈥檝e had these in the past and they come out of nowhere to stop everything in their tracks,鈥� says Gary Sick, an Iran expert at Columbia University and principal White House aide during the Iranian revolution and hostage crisis.听
鈥淭hings like that happen鈥omething coming out of left field, something that is inexplicable, or embarrassing to one side of or the other, so it looks like somebody is not dealing in good faith, and I fully expect a lot of disinformation,鈥� says Mr. Sick.
