Five predictions for cybersecurity's role in the 2016 presidential race
There might be more than 400 days before Election Day, but the 2016 presidential campaign is well under way. With both the Republican and Democratic fields largely solidified, the 22 candidates have begun to lay out their policies and make their cases for why they should be commander-in-chief. While jobs and the听听have dominated the campaign, this election cycle could see cybersecurity play its largest role yet. Recent events like the hacks of听,听,听and the听听have brought the issue to public attention, and听听how their administrations would defend America鈥檚 interests in cyberspace.
罢丑别听听听听that the next occupant of the Oval Office will spend an increasing amount of time working on cybersecurity, but no candidate has offered specific policy ideas. Here are a five predictions on how cybersecurity could play out on the campaign trail prior to election day:
1. The rhetoric against China will continue and escalate
While we likely won鈥檛 see Lincoln Chafee demand that Xi Jinping tear down the听, we should expect to see many of the candidates continue their anti-China rhetoric, particularly if future data breaches are linked to the country, confirmed or otherwise. Republicans听听for the recent OPM hack and听. Among democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton has taken the toughest stance on China鈥檚 actions in cyberspace,听accusing the Chinese听of 鈥渢rying to hack everything that doesn鈥檛 move in America.鈥�
In a presidential election听, and where democrats may see speaking out against China as a way to听听that their party is weak on that issue, it would be a surprise to see a candidate soften his or her language prior to November 2016.
2. Privacy advocates won鈥檛 see the debate they鈥檇 like
Few of the leading candidates, Democrat or Republican, have made privacy concerns a central issue. Of the 22 declared candidates, only four 鈥撎齋ens.听听(R) of Kentucky,听Ted Cruz (R) of Texas, Bernie Sanders (D) of Vermont,听and听听(D) of Rhode Island 鈥攈ave embraced the privacy debate as part of their campaign, and none looks likely to be the nominee for either party.
On the right, Sen. Paul鈥檚听.听, but is听听to government surveillance programs. Former Gov. Jeb Bush, Senator Marco Rubio (R) of Florida and other听leading republicans generally 听and its programs.
On the left, Sen. Chafee,听. Sen. Sanders, who is polling much better,听, but has not elevated privacy as a central issue. Mrs. Clinton听, but听听on what she views as the proper balance between surveillance and security.
With the leading privacy advocates struggling to make headway, privacy issues will likely take a backseat through 2016.
3. Candidates will back stronger offensive cybermeasures
Most of the talk on the campaign trail so far has been about defense.听听听听the need to improve the country鈥檚 ability to secure critical networks and defend corporations from cyberattacks, but there has been only听听of offensive capabilities.
The Obama administration鈥檚 recent decision that听听against the perpetrator of the recent OPM hack looks set to change that. With the idea of deploying offensive capabilities听听in Washington, it is likely only a matter of time before it reaches the campaign trail. The broadness of the issue and the range of offensive responses will allow for some space between positions, making it an issue where candidates can potentially differentiate themselves from their opponents. Backing offensive cyber measures should also appeal to voters:听, a data security firm, found that 92 percent of Americans believe 鈥渁ction against a nation-state is necessary following a data breach.鈥�
4. Hackers will target campaign websites
Beyond crafting cybersecurity policy, candidates should focus on the security of their campaign operations as well. During the 2008 election, both the Obama and McCain campaigns were听. Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin听听into that year, as well.听, hacking both the Obama and Romney camps.
While the 2008 and 2012 attacks targeted campaign computers and databases, in 2016 the candidate鈥檚 donation pages could also be targeted.听听often via credit card, they make for potentially lucrative targets.
5. Cyber becomes a stand-alone issue
In a听听article, Dominic Basulto asked, 鈥淲hen will cybersecurity become a major campaign issue?鈥� The answer could be 2016. Cybersecurity is often thought of as a part of defense policy or of intelligence policy, and that鈥檚 still more-or-less where it fits now. But with the number of hacks听, and sectors like health insurance,听听and听听becoming targets, cybersecurity could make the jump into the 2016 mainstream. It will never top the economy in an issue poll, but as our interconnectedness and exposure increase in tandem, voters would be right to expect their presidential candidates to defend against, and respond to, their cybersecurity concerns.
Brett Ekberg is a research associate in the Digital and Cyberspace Policy Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.听This piece was originally published on听, a blog by the Council on Foreign Relations.
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