US-Iran ceasefire leaves Israelis feeling sidelined, their war aims unachieved
| Washington
Israelis reacted with alarm Monday to news that the United States, on its own, had secured an agreement ending the unprecedented joint military campaign both had launched in late February against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The concerns being expressed across the country were that the U.S.-Iran agreement not only completely sidelines Israel but also puts at risk its very security and the relationship with its vital ally, the U.S.
From the political and security establishments to news commentaries and conversations at caf茅s, there was a sense of dread that the war Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had marketed as a chance to quash Israel鈥檚 archfoe with the help of a friendly American president is ending with none of its aims met.
Why We Wrote This
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal leaves many Israelis feeling vulnerable and abandoned by their most important ally. They expressed concern for Israel鈥檚 security and freedom of action against its enemies. Some criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for failing to achieve his war aims.
Even more jarringly, there鈥檚 a sense that the end of the conflict is a disaster leaving Iran, not Israel, in the more dominant strategic position.
Although details of the deal have not been disclosed, it reportedly does not include a demand for Iran to halt production of its ballistic missile arsenal, which it has deployed against Israel and Tehran鈥檚 other regional adversaries. Nor does it address Iran鈥檚 web of proxy armies around the Middle East, its "Axis of Resistance," which it funded and built to attack Israel and which includes its most potent ally, Hezbollah, in Lebanon.
Lebanon has been an active war front even in the weeks since a shaky ceasefire was signed in early April. Most disturbingly for Israelis in that regard is that the U.S.-Iran agreement could effectively tie Israel鈥檚 hands in responding to Hezbollah鈥檚 attacks on Israeli forces currently in southern Lebanon and in Israeli communities near the country鈥檚 northern border with Lebanon.
Nuclear threat
The agreement also leaves open Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 long-proclaimed reason for seeking war with Iran in the first place: to remove its nuclear threat. Iran has threatened to 鈥渨ipe Israel off the map,鈥� despite repeated denials from Tehran that it was developing the capability to build a nuclear weapon.
鈥淭he war threat may be over, but there is likely a diplomatic disaster facing us,鈥� Ohad Hemo, a Channel 12 journalist who covers the Arab world, told his followers on social media. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 what happens when Netanyahu鈥檚 entire foreign policy rests with one person [U.S. President Donald Trump] and there鈥檚 been no investment in other ties, not in the Middle East, and not in Europe.
鈥淎nd when the messiah turns on us, all of us, without exception, are in trouble,鈥� said Mr. Hemo, before concluding, 鈥淚srael has lost its ability to protect its borders.鈥�
Israelis woke up Monday swimming with questions and anxiety about what will happen next with Iran and Hezbollah, and where they stand with the U.S., whose perceived abandonment of Israel in this deal arguably leaves the country weaker and more isolated than ever, both regionally and internationally.
A day earlier President Trump, regarded by many Israelis as the 鈥渂est friend鈥� Israel has ever had in the White House, reportedly chewed out Mr. Netanyahu in profanity-laced language for recklessly provoking Iran by ordering an attack on Hezbollah positions in Beirut.
鈥淥n the nuclear program, the jury is still out. There is fear here that in the 60-day negotiating period [provided for by the ceasefire deal], whatever tactical achievements were made in the recent war will be eroded and an agreement [on nuclear issues] could be pushed down the road. It鈥檚 difficult not to think of this as a strategic failure,鈥� says Shira Efron, an analyst with the Israel Policy Forum, a Washington-based think tank.
鈥淭here is a sense in Israel of disillusionment with its own leadership and with declarations of 鈥榓bsolute victory,鈥� when at best we are getting a mediocre agreement,鈥� she says, noting the caveat of not yet seeing the details of the agreement.
鈥淚srael鈥檚 issues with Iran are far from solved. ... The regime is now dominated by hard-liners with no different rhetoric on Israel and an [unresolved] nuclear situation. It鈥檚 hard to imagine a good outcome,鈥� she says.
Referring to the situations in both聽Iran and Lebanon, she adds, 鈥淭here is frustration because there were so many opportunities when Israel could have been in a stronger strategic position, but it isn鈥檛 because of its continuous overreach.鈥�
Upcoming elections
The ceasefire agreement lands in the middle of Israel鈥檚 election season. Mr. Netanyahu was already fighting for his political survival, trying to distance himself from the stain of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack, Israel鈥檚 greatest intelligence and military failure.
For a while, it appeared to many Israelis that Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 government was succeeding in pulling off a security 鈥渃omeback鈥� through its devastating attacks on Hezbollah in the fall of 2024 and a 12-day war with Iran last June.
On Monday, trying to reassert Israel鈥檚 security ethos of self-defense, government ministers claimed Israel would not be bound by the Iran deal.
Yet opposition candidates immediately framed Mr. Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for decades, as a failure, the opposite of his self-proclaimed 鈥淢r. Security鈥� persona.
Yair Golan, a reserve general and head of the center-left Democrats party, posted on social media that Mr. Netanyahu had squandered Israel鈥檚 deterrent power, leaving its enemies stronger and itself weaker.
He鈥檚 the 鈥渇ather of Israel鈥檚 greatest strategic failure in its history,鈥� Mr. Golan said. 鈥淣etanyahu is good for Hamas. Netanyahu is good for Iran. Netanyahu is good for Hezbollah. Netanyahu is not good for Israel.鈥�
Mr. Netanyahu sought Monday to defend his legacy. Describing his fight to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons as his 鈥渓ife mission,鈥� he vowed it would never have them on his watch.
鈥淚 hear people asking, 鈥榃hat have we achieved?鈥� And I answer them, 鈥榃hat have we achieved? We have removed the threat of immediate annihilation.鈥�
鈥淚f we had not acted as we did, Iran would already have atomic bombs. ... The meaning is that millions of Israeli citizens, you who are listening to me now, all of you were in terrible danger of mass death.鈥�
He also said Israel would remain in 鈥渢he security zones as long as it takes to protect our country,鈥� referring to swaths of land inside the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and Syria that the Israeli military seized after the Oct. 7 attack.
Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 political future remains to be seen, but the U.S.-Iran deal signals the end of the 鈥減ost-Oct. 7 wars,鈥� along with illusions of 鈥渢otal victory,鈥� wrote Lazar Berman, diplomatic correspondent of The Times of Israel.
鈥淚srael will continue to face threats from the same adversaries and will have to fight wars against them sometime in the future, whatever Trump or subsequent American presidents have to say.鈥�
