Do Israeli voters still trust Netanyahu?
| Tel Aviv, Israel; Washington
The scene in a new campaign ad is instantly recognizable to Israelis as a reference to the attack by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. The camera zooms out from a food-laden family dinner table, with half-filled beverage glasses 鈥� but no one is in the bullet-riddled, smoldering home.
The political message of the ad, put out by a prominent Israeli opposition figure, is clear: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is failing to keep Israelis safe 鈥� and it is time for new leadership.
Mr. Netanyahu has led the conservative Likud party for most of the last three decades, and is Israel鈥檚 longest-serving prime minister. He currently heads a government that is widely recognized as the most hard-line, right-wing coalition in Israel鈥檚 history. Now the reputation that this prime minister has spent years cultivating as 鈥淢r. Security,鈥� the core of his political appeal, is under assault. And yet, Mr. Netanyahu remains a political force, analysts say, with outsize skill in creating disparate but highly effective partnerships that help him maintain a grip on power even as his popularity wanes.
Why We Wrote This
Israel is entering election season, and the leading opposition politicians are trying to undercut the incumbent, Benjamin Netanyahu, on security issues. The prime minister has lost some supporters, but he鈥檚 always been a political survivor.
Israel is in election season, with voting to be held by Oct. 27. Opposition politicians, including former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot 鈥� whose Yashar party released that campaign video 鈥� are quick to remind Israeli voters that the Oct. 7 attack happened on Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 watch; that the prime minister鈥檚 often-repeated vow to achieve 鈥渢otal victory鈥� in Gaza has fallen short; and that Mr. Netanyahu is giving in to pressure from Washington to let up on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite militia in Lebanon.
鈥淚n the north, we are losing faith,鈥� says Daniel Dorfman, a pizzeria owner in a town along Israel鈥檚 northern border with Lebanon. He says shelling and drone attacks from Hezbollah that resumed in March are making the whole region unlivable.
Mr. Dorfman says he voted for Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 party in the past, because he liked the prime minister鈥檚 ideology and leadership stature. But now, he is thinking about voting for the party of Naftali Bennett 鈥� a right-wing contender for the prime minister role 鈥� or perhaps the party of Avigdor Lieberman, another longtime right-wing rival to Mr. Netanyahu.
Along with many Israelis, Mr. Dorfman says the prime minister still needs to take responsibility for failing to prevent the Oct. 7 attack.
In a recent released by Israeli news outlet Channel 12, 53% of respondents said that Mr. Netanyahu should not run in the upcoming elections.
The prime minister鈥檚 鈥渋nability to bring successes on the war front is actually becoming apparent to his own followers,鈥� says Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
鈥淗amas is still in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the ayatollahs in Iran,鈥� she says. 鈥淭his is where the people that used to vote for Netanyahu, because of security, lose their trust.鈥�
Mr. Netanyahu has always been a political survivor. And when voters are asked who is most suitable to be Israel鈥檚 prime minister, he still generally performs strongly against main opposition contenders. But that advantage might be eroding.
A Channel 12 poll published Thursday, for example, found that Mr. Eisenkot (38%) had passed Mr. Netanyahu (35%) as the most suitable for the role of prime minister. He and Mr. Bennett have both outpaced Mr. Netanyahu in some other recent polling, though what will determine the prime minister鈥檚 hold on power is whether his bloc has enough votes to form a coalition.
Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 enduring political success has stemmed not so much from love for him, analysts argue, but from his genius in keeping his coalition partners happy and the inability of opposition parties to present one unified candidate around whom voters can focus their attention.
鈥淭here is no agreed leader of the opposition,鈥� says Ms. Talshir.
Mr. Netanyahu, who is also standing trial on corruption charges, has a very stable base of supporters 鈥� as high as 47% 鈥� who 鈥渢hink he is the best,鈥� says Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli political analyst and pollster. She says the base still believes he has 鈥渟kill, the gravitas, and the experience鈥� to run the country.
鈥淗e鈥檚 been in power for so long that it becomes difficult to imagine anybody else reaching his stature,鈥� Ms. Scheindlin adds, noting that Mr. Netanyahu is seen as a tough leader who knows how to take decisive action and manage relationships with Israel鈥檚 allies.
Carmel Market, a large, open-air fruit and vegetable market on the south side of Tel Aviv, is known as a stronghold for the prime minister鈥檚 Likud party. Alongside stacks of plump tomatoes and spices sold in bulk, people鈥檚 opinions pile up, alongside the produce, in defense of Mr. Netanyahu.
鈥淓veryone in the market knows what I think, and I鈥檓 not afraid to say he鈥檚 the best,鈥� Avner Mizrahi, a greengrocer, boasts of his admiration for Mr. Netanyahu as he packs coriander and green onions in a bag.
鈥淚 am also a huge fan of Bibi,鈥� interjects Tikva Chanimov, a customer, using Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 nickname. 鈥淚 will vote for him once again,鈥� she adds. 鈥淣obody can manage this country like Bibi with all our war fronts and all of the enemies we have in the world.鈥�
Anshel Pfeffer, The Economist鈥檚 Israel correspondent and author of 鈥淏ibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu,鈥� says the prime minister does not have a hold on the Israeli electorate, 鈥渂ut on the Israeli system and that, together with a lack of a clear challenger, makes him difficult to replace.鈥�
鈥淚f there was someone who could unite the very diverse opposition and challenge him, that would be a different story,鈥� he adds, saying that Mr. Netanyahu has 鈥渓earned to bend the system to his needs ... breaking the rules or rewriting the rules of Israeli politics, and doing it again and again.鈥�
A key part of the prime minister鈥檚 career playbook has been acquiescing to the demands of his coalition partners, most notably political parties from the Jewish ultra-Orthodox community in Israel.
Even during this time of war, ultra-Orthodox leaders insist that their young people be legally exempt from mandatory military service, which impacts most Jewish Israelis at age 18. This has become a major liability for Mr. Netanyahu, in a country where young soldiers and reservists on extended tours of duty are dying in the name of national defense. In the past month, despite a declared ceasefire with Lebanon, more than a dozen soldiers have been killed, including one on Thursday.
Keeping his current coalition intact going into the next election will be a priority for Mr. Netanyahu. Analysts say the prime minister is willing to make whatever deals might be necessary. This has included breaking long-standing taboos against appointing far-right ideologues as senior Cabinet members.
In interviews with more than a dozen of Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 supporters, several said they believe that the prime minister is facing 鈥渄eep state鈥� plots against him. And that he is still the most capable person to lead Israel through the most challenging period since its founding as a modern-day state in 1948.
Even the shaky ceasefire arrangement with Iran, which has left the Islamic Republic in power and, as many Israelis see it, was imposed by the White House, does not deter Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 die-hard supporters.
Early this week, U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly cursed out the Israeli prime minister over a planned bombing of southern Beirut, just as the United States was trying to negotiate a peace deal with Lebanon and reach an accord with Iran. But the prime minister can still count on his enduring appeal that comes from an emotional level, says Tamar Hermann, senior researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.
鈥淗e鈥檚 kind of the father of the nation for many,鈥� she says.
