Dissent at home, threats from abroad. Iran faces 鈥榳ar on two fronts.鈥�
| London
The events in Iran Tuesday, on the 10th day of widening protests that began over the economy, showcase the severity of the dual challenges now facing the Islamic Republic after 47 years in power 鈥� and how it might react to the pressure.
As the value of the Iranian currency fell to a record low, security forces used tear gas to disperse a sit-in at the Grand Bazaar in Tehran. It is just one incident in a wave of protests that have erupted in 26 of Iran鈥檚 31 provinces and reportedly left 36 people dead.
Triggered by Iran鈥檚 failing economy, the protests quickly turned against the regime, with street chants calling for 鈥渄eath to the dictator鈥� and the removal of Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Why We Wrote This
Iran鈥檚 leaders are juggling chronic economic malaise 鈥� caused by years of mismanagement, corruption, and U.S.-led sanctions 鈥� with a growing expectation of military conflict with Israel or, following President Donald Trump鈥檚 threats, the United States.
Yet also on听Tuesday, Iran鈥檚 Defense Council spelled out a new and unprecedented policy of preemptive military action against Tehran鈥檚 external adversaries if Iran observed military preparations for an attack by archfoes Israel and the United States.
The council 鈥� formed in the aftermath of the 12-day Israel-Iran war last June, which was capped by U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities 鈥� issued the statement after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed a warning Sunday that Iran would 鈥済et hit very hard鈥� if protesters were killed. Mr. Trump had posted on social media Friday that the U.S. is 鈥渓ocked and loaded and ready to go.鈥�
鈥淭his has been the Islamic Republic鈥檚 nightmare all along, all these years, and now it鈥檚 actually happening,鈥� says Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. Iran鈥檚 leadership has 鈥渆ffectively been fighting a war on two fronts,鈥� he explains.
鈥淚n past decades, Iran has been through war with Iraq for eight years, and it has been through different waves of protests ... but it has never had both at the same time,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat has been part of Iran鈥檚 strategic thinking and calculations, to prevent a war on two fronts simultaneously.鈥�
鈥淕rowing concern鈥� in Tehran
The result is that Iran鈥檚 leadership is being forced to juggle chronic economic malaise 鈥� caused by years of mismanagement, corruption, and U.S.-led sanctions, which Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian says he cannot solve 鈥� with a growing expectation of fresh military conflict.
And while the Defense Council statement may be a bid to restore some deterrence with Israel, it also signals 鈥済rowing concern鈥� in Tehran, says Mr. Azizi. 鈥淭his is significant, because we have never had a preemptive strategy or doctrine of the Iranian armed forces. They have always emphasized the second [response] strike and defense.鈥�
That concern has been heightened by unrest on the streets.
鈥淭he protests themselves, at this time, are not something existential,鈥� says Mr. Azizi. 鈥淏ut it is the potential that they create 鈥� as [Iran鈥檚 leaders] see it 鈥� for external actors, for adversaries, to come in that makes the situation different.鈥�
Previous waves of protests, about democracy or economic grievances, have often spread nationwide and turned antiregime, such as the 2009 Green Movement and 2022 "Women, life, freedom" protests. They lasted for months, with death tolls in the hundreds from fierce crackdowns.
For now, Iran鈥檚 leaders are signaling a cautious approach to the current dissent.
During past protest waves, Ayatollah Khamenei often painted all those on the streets as 鈥渢errorists鈥� who could be crushed indiscriminately. Yet on Saturday, in his first official response to the current unrest, he took care to differentiate between those on the streets with 鈥渓egitimate demands鈥� about the economy 鈥� who he said should be listened to 鈥� and those 鈥渞ioters鈥� bent on violence, who should be 鈥減ut in their place.鈥�
President Pezeshkian echoed the supreme leader鈥檚 distinction Wednesday when he ordered Iran鈥檚 security forces not to crack down on economic protesters.
Previous U.S. leaders have often been reluctant to openly support protesters, to deny Iranian leaders the ability to blame foreign interference. Mr. Trump鈥檚 vow Friday to 鈥渞escue鈥� Iran鈥檚 protesters took on added significance a day later, when U.S. Special Forces seized Venezuelan leader Nicol谩s Maduro in Caracas.
Few in Iran forget Mr. Trump鈥檚 post in June: 鈥淲e know exactly where the so-called 鈥楽upreme Leader鈥� is hiding,鈥� he wrote, adding that Ayatollah Khamenei was an 鈥渆asy target.鈥�
No 鈥渇oreign boots鈥�
Israel, likewise, has made no secret of its expectation of launching new military strikes against Iran, primarily aimed at Iran鈥檚 large remaining missile arsenal. During the June war, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a message to the Iranian public. 鈥淭he time has come for you to unite around your flag and your historic legacy by standing up for your freedom from an evil and oppressive regime.鈥�
Mr. Netanyahu said Sunday that Israel stands 鈥渋n solidarity鈥� at a 鈥渕oment in which the Iranian people are taking their fate into their own hands.鈥�
Yet for one Iranian protester contacted in Tehran, who gave the name Taha and says he was 鈥渓ucky not to get caught so far,鈥� such messaging is unwelcome interference.
鈥淚ran鈥檚 sovereignty is my red line. I don鈥檛 want any foreign boots in my country,鈥� says Taha, a language teacher.
鈥淲e [Iranians] are able to make change. If that change comes through reform, it鈥檚 more than welcome, but it鈥檚 very unlikely under the current system,鈥� he concedes. 鈥淭his may take blood, unfortunately. That is still better than being run by a Western power.鈥�
鈥淲e can clearly say that the biggest favor that the U.S. and the Israelis could do to the Islamic Republic is to own the street action,鈥� says an Iranian analyst with close access to policy circles, who asked not to be further identified.
What makes him 鈥渘ervous,鈥� he says, is misinterpretation of protest events in Iran, where for three decades each past episode of street anger has sparked claims of imminent regime collapse.
鈥淩egardless of what happens on the street, what matters to a government like the one in Washington is the narrative you spin out of it and the pictures you see,鈥� says the analyst. 鈥淎 peaceful march of 20,000 people is less of a story to Trump than a dozen people attacking a police headquarters. The latter doesn鈥檛 have any political meaning for the future of Iran, but it is something spectacular in the eyes of Donald Trump.
鈥淪o if the Israelis, and those in favor of regime change, do their homework 鈥� and I am quite sure they do their homework 鈥� they will present everything that is coming out of Iran, regardless of how small the size, as that being the moment鈥� to strike, for regime change.
鈥淎 shock moment鈥�
That risk 鈥� coupled with the fresh-in-mind example of America鈥檚 forced removal of Mr. Maduro 鈥� prompted the Defense Council鈥檚 embrace of possible preemptive military action.
鈥淭his is the talk of the town. Whether that translates into action is obviously a different story,鈥� says the Iranian analyst.
鈥淏ut so many times, I have heard self-criticism in terms of, 鈥業ran has been irrationally rational, disproportionately proportionate with its [military] responses,鈥欌�� ever since Israel began targeting Iran鈥檚 regional militia allies, and then Iran itself, in the aftermath of Hamas鈥� Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
鈥淪o there is a high demand to change [Iranian] behavior, [and] this really is the one thing that could change the current trend and dynamics: a shock moment, something unexpected. Because Iran has become so 辫谤别诲颈肠迟补产濒别.鈥�
Iran鈥檚 leadership would be open to a diplomatic off-ramp, but the demands on Iran have changed, say analysts. Early last year, Mr. Trump said Iran could not have a nuclear weapon 鈥� an ambition Iran insists it never held. But after Mr. Trump claimed in June that U.S strikes 鈥渙bliterated鈥� Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, he said any effort to rebuild uranium enrichment capacity would also be destroyed.
鈥淣ow, all indicators are that the U.S. side wants more 鈥� especially on missiles 鈥� and this is not something that any government in Iran is going to even talk about, let alone do a deal鈥� on, says Mr. Azizi in Berlin.
鈥淲ith all that is happening, the Iranian leadership might get more risk-taking, and less risk-averse, than in the past,鈥� adds Mr. Azizi. 鈥淭hat might mean a preemptive strike, if they really feel threatened, if they sense an immediate danger.鈥�
