Is Syrian upheaval the first step to a stabler Middle East?
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Ned Temko Columnist
| London
The dizzying pace of events since the collapse of Syria鈥檚 dictatorship, including daily revelations of its brutality leavened by inspiring images of celebration, has risked obscuring the single most important aspect of President Bashar al-Assad鈥檚 demise.
It has opened up a rare and unexpected opportunity for regional powers 鈥� and their most important outside ally, the United States 鈥� to help build not only a new Syria, but a stabler, less combustible Middle East.
And that has raised a question in a part of the world where opportunities have been missed more often than they have been grasped. Will regional leaders keep their eyes on that prize, and work together to try to win it?
Why We Wrote This
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria offers an opportunity to build a less combustible Middle East. Will regional leaders work together toward that goal, or will they allow their narrow national interests to prevail?
Or will their own national interests and political agendas override efforts to make common cause?
Even if they do manage to act together, a lot will have to go right inside Syria for them to succeed. Without them, the task facing Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the main rebel group that toppled the dictatorship, will be even harder.
The good news is that both Mr. Sharaa and the key outside powers 鈥� America, Turkey, Qatar, and Israel 鈥� know what鈥檚 at stake.
All have their own reasons to want a stable, inclusive new government in Damascus, focused on rebuilding Syria from the horrors of the old regime and the destruction caused by years of civil war.
All want to avoid the worst-case alternative: a resurgence of ethnic tensions, infighting among anti-Assad rebels, and the prospect of jihadist groups like the Islamic State (ISIS) using the situation to regroup.
Yet each outside power also has its own concerns.
Qatar and Turkey view themselves as the lead players. They wanted Mr. Assad out from the start of the civil war, and backed Mr. Sharaa鈥檚 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups.
They are also well placed to help provide tools needed to rebuild the country: security ballast from Turkey, the NATO military power on Syria鈥檚 northern border, and oil millions from the Gulf.
But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an also wants something else: a military hold on the north of the country, and an end to the enclave controlled by a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which he sees as an extension of Kurdish separatist forces inside Turkey.
Turkish-backed militias have wasted no time in attacking SDF positions, and Mr. Erdo臒an has reportedly been mobilizing Turkish army units along the border.
The SDF is more than America鈥檚 key ally in defeating ISIS. It now runs internment camps where some 9,000 captured ISIS fighters remain confined.
On Syria鈥檚 southern frontier, another regional military power 鈥� Israel 鈥� seems equally determined to try to shape Syria鈥檚 future.
When Mr. Assad fell, the Israelis moved their troops on the Golan Heights 鈥� captured in the 1967 Arab-Israeli war 鈥� across the U.N.-policed demarcation line with Syria.
Their reasoning was that with Mr. Assad鈥檚 army gone, they needed to prevent other armed groups from taking control of the dividing line.
They have since advanced further into Syrian territory and taken additional positions atop Mt. Hermon, the northern Golan peak overlooking Damascus and southern Lebanon.
Israel鈥檚 key goal, it appears, is to prevent Mr. Assad鈥檚 successors from reviving Syria as a route for arms shipments from Iran to its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.
Mr. Sharaa has said that won鈥檛 happen. But the Israelis aren鈥檛 ready, at least not yet, to take him at his word. They point out that while he broke with jihadi Islam in 2016, his political roots lie with Al Qaeda.
And what of the U.S., which has strong ties to all the key regional players?
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been playing an active role in bringing together a regional coalition seeking an orderly transition. He has stressed the need to keep Syria together, head off infighting, and empower a government that respects all the country鈥檚 ethnic and faith groups.
But President-elect Donald Trump鈥檚 initial response to Mr. Assad鈥檚 ouster was a social media post pronouncing Syria a 鈥渕ess鈥� and saying America should stay out of it.
Still, the sheer scale of the political upheaval could convince both Mr. Trump and the key regional leaders to help create a stable and inclusive new Syria.
The rarity of this opportunity also makes it precious. The closest parallel was nearly 50 years ago, when then-Egyptian President Anwar Sadat jettisoned decades of enmity and abruptly announced his readiness to travel to Israel, kickstarting diplomacy that led to a peace treaty.
There are reasons for caution, too. They are perhaps best summed up in an old fable I heard when I arrived as a young correspondent in civil-war-wracked Lebanon in the 1970s.
It鈥檚 about a frog and a scorpion. The scorpion asks the frog to ferry him across the Nile, only to be told, 鈥淣o! What if you sting me halfway across, and I drown?鈥�
鈥淲hy would I do that?鈥� the scorpion replies. 鈥淚鈥檇 drown, too!鈥�
So the frog agrees. Halfway across, the scorpion does sting him. 鈥淲hy?鈥� the frog asks plaintively, as they sink.
The answer? Hayda ash-Sharq al-Awsat. 鈥淭his is the Middle East!鈥�
