Israel enjoys upper hand as ceasefire signals Hezbollah鈥檚 limits
| London; and Tel Aviv, Israel
Before dawn on Wednesday, Israeli and Hezbollah militia guns fell silent as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire took hold, capping more than 13 months of escalating conflict that has devastated parts of Lebanon and emptied communities on either side of the Israel-Lebanon border.
Celebrations erupted in Lebanon as the 60-day truce took hold. By daybreak, roads heading south to the area hit heaviest by the fighting were clogged with thousands of cars as Lebanese residents returned to what was left of their homes.
On the other side of the border, Israelis were more skeptical. Few of the 60,000 people who had been evacuated from their homes in the face of Hezbollah shelling and missile fire seemed convinced that it was safe to go home. The Israeli army, however, emerged from the war with significant gains.
Why We Wrote This
Hezbollah has emerged from its 13-month war with Israel leaderless and weak, no longer the powerful regional force that Iran has depended on. Will Israel seek to take advantage of Tehran鈥檚 new vulnerability?
Israel battered Hezbollah 鈥� the strongest of Iran鈥檚 regional allies 鈥� demonstrating deep intelligence penetration and military prowess. It assassinated the top echelons of Hezbollah鈥檚 leadership, destroyed Hezbollah tunnel systems along the border, and claims to have destroyed the bulk of Hezbollah鈥檚 arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles.
President Joe Biden announced the ceasefire, saying that it is 鈥渄esigned to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,鈥� and that 鈥渨hat is left of Hezbollah鈥� would 鈥渘ot be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.鈥�
Israel can still attack
The deal requires Hezbollah to withdraw north of Lebanon鈥檚 Litani River, about 30 kilometers聽(18 miles) from the border, and for Israeli forces to withdraw fully from southern Lebanon. Some 5,000 Lebanese army troops, alongside United Nations peacekeepers already on the ground, will monitor the ceasefire.
A reported side agreement allows Israel to strike Hezbollah, in consultation with Washington, if it detects violations of the ceasefire terms. Israel will have to be 鈥渧ery tough鈥� and 鈥渄isproportionate鈥� in preventing the Shiite militia from rearming and reorganizing near the border, said Yaakov Amidor, a retired general and former national security adviser, during a briefing with reporters.
鈥淎fter Oct. 7, we learned the lesson,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 let the other side grow and get stronger.鈥澛�
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Hezbollah had been degraded, and was 鈥渘o longer鈥� the organization that attacked Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, in support of Hamas, which had launched its lethal raid on Israel the day before.
He gave three reasons for the ceasefire: to allow Israel to focus on the 鈥淚ran threat鈥�; to give the Israeli military time to regroup after fighting on two fronts; and to isolate Hamas. Hezbollah was obliged to drop its insistence on a ceasefire in Gaza in return for laying down its arms.
The price has been high for Lebanon, where authorities say that more than 3,800 people have been killed 鈥� mostly in Israeli bombing raids 鈥� and reconstruction costs will be monumental. Hezbollah鈥檚 reputation in the country has suffered; many Lebanese, including the militia鈥檚 Shiite supporters, are angry at the scale of destruction of a war that many saw as unnecessary.
鈥淚t鈥檚 critically important that Hezbollah looks after the social welfare needs of their constituents,鈥� says Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert in Beirut with the Atlantic Council. 鈥淭hat, to my mind, would be a more pressing matter than thinking about rearming.鈥� Already, he says, Hezbollah has made surveys of destruction in Beirut鈥檚 southern suburbs, and even issued construction contracts. Providing for people as winter comes will be a key test.
鈥淚f these folks are still living in tents on the rubble of their homes in a year鈥檚 time, their anger is going to be directed more toward Hezbollah 鈥� and Hezbollah can鈥檛 afford to have that,鈥� adds Mr. Blanford, author of 鈥淲arriors of God: Inside Hezbollah鈥檚 Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel.鈥�
Will Iran be the next Israeli target?
Both sides indulged in a frenzy of violence just before the truce came into force. Israel unleashed some of the heaviest airstrikes of war on Beirut and Hezbollah strongholds in southern and eastern Lebanon, and Hezbollah showed that, however degraded, it could still launch upward of 340 rockets into central Israel in a single day, as it did on Sunday.
But as the war鈥檚 dust settles, Israel has wrought fundamental change in the Middle Eastern balance of power.
鈥淭his conflict has eroded Iran鈥檚 deterrence,鈥� says Mr. Blanford, noting that 鈥渕utual deterrence鈥� between Hezbollah and Israel held for 17 years, the longest period of calm on the border since the mid-1960s.
鈥淏ut the Israelis ended up calling Hezbollah鈥檚 and Iran鈥檚 bluff,鈥� calculating that Tehran did not want a broader war, he says. What followed was a surge of airstrikes; an attack involving exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, which wounded thousands of Hezbollah fighters; and a wave of assassinations that included Hezbollah鈥檚 revered chief Hassan Nasrallah.
鈥淭his is going to be a big problem for Iran, because you have a Hezbollah that has been weakened militarily,鈥� says Mr. Blanford.
鈥淭he deterrence factor isn鈥檛 there anymore,鈥� he adds. That might tempt Israel to attack Iran directly, he suggests. 鈥淎nd if they do that, and if Hezbollah does retaliate, then the Israelis are just going to smash more of Lebanon.鈥�
