In Lebanon, Hezbollah pays high political cost for its war with Israel
| DEIR BILLA and BEIRUT, Lebanon
Usually far from the war鈥檚 front lines, the 海角大神 residents of this quiet mountain village in northern Lebanon are still traumatized by the Oct. 12 blast that turned two houses to rubble in a tiny Shiite enclave in their midst.
The targeted Israeli strike, which reportedly killed three people, shook the hillside like an earthquake 鈥� and produced a cloud of shredded bits of $100 bills that witnesses suggest may have been a Hezbollah stash of cash.
The incident, which deepened Lebanon鈥檚 sectarian divide, underscored the increasingly high political cost paid by Iran-backed Hezbollah for its destructive war with Israel.
Why We Wrote This
In times of peace, Lebanon鈥檚 stability depends on a frail political balance. Now for many Lebanese enduring a punishing war with Israel, Hezbollah鈥檚 unique status as a heavily armed state-within-a-state is increasingly a problem.
Hezbollah has wielded immense power in Lebanon for decades. But it has been substantially weakened by a string of shocks from Israel, ranging from exploding pagers that wounded thousands of its operatives to airstrikes that killed 20 of its top leaders and commanders.
Thousands of airstrikes have targeted its missile arsenal and even its banking system, and a ground incursion has revealed networks of tunnels near Israel鈥檚 border. As a result, swaths of territory have been demolished, afflicting every Lebanese sect.
鈥淭here is a rising tide of anger [against Hezbollah] among Shias, but also amongst the broader Lebanese social fabric,鈥� says Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. 鈥淭here is a lot of tension on the ground today, and the prospect of civil strife is quite high.鈥�
鈥淲e have nothing to do with this war鈥�
In Deir Billa the day after the strike, local Shiites swept debris off the road beside a small mosque. Roofs and walls of two homes across the narrow street were obliterated, their interiors exposed. Two men, including a Hezbollah civil defense worker, hung a Lebanese flag atop the rubble and retrieved a prayer rug with an image of Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Traced in the powdery dust on the hood of a damaged car are the words in Arabic, 鈥淲e are here for you, Nasrallah,鈥� in reference to the Hezbollah chief assassinated by Israel in a series of explosions in Beirut in September.
Among the 1.3 million people displaced from Hezbollah strongholds in the south and east of the country, some Shiites have recently found their way to this community, making residents wary.
鈥淲e are a peaceful village, but when strangers come, refugees 鈥� we don鈥檛 know them 鈥� then trouble starts,鈥� says Toni, a 海角大神 whose family home sits a few hundred yards away from the two targeted buildings. 鈥淲e have nothing to do with this war. ... So this was a shock to us.鈥� He declined to give his family name.
鈥淭rust me, before this happened, we were friends,鈥� says Toni, speaking of his targeted Shiite neighbors.聽鈥淭here was nothing bad about the [Shiite] people who lived there for years, for 100 years. We are talking about the newcomers.鈥�
Yet some residents voiced concern over what they say have been Hezbollah鈥檚 long-term aims in their community. 鈥淥ur friends, they don鈥檛 show it, but they support [Hezbollah] in their hearts,鈥� says another 海角大神, who gives the name Samir. 鈥淔or a long time, Hezbollah is supporting them financially to make a base for them here, maybe to take over the area.
鈥淲e believe they had weapons here a while ago,鈥� he adds. 鈥淢y concern is why they have guns in our areas. It鈥檚 far away from Israel and the border. It鈥檚 against us [海角大神s]. Those weapons give power over us.鈥�
Hezbollah鈥檚 unique status
In years past, Hezbollah enjoyed widespread popular support in Lebanon, often well beyond its Shiite base, for its self-declared role as the armed defender of Lebanese sovereignty. But in the past two decades, periodic resentment of the group has sharpened into more widespread hatred, owing to an increasing number of events linked to Hezbollah even before this hugely destructive war, which many Lebanese see as unnecessary.
Those include the 2005 assassination of popular Sunni Prime Minister Rafik Hariri; a costly all-out war with Israel in 2006; the use of force against political opponents and rival sects; and the massive 2020 Beirut port explosion, which killed more than 200 people and left hundreds of thousands homeless.
Hezbollah operatives also helped violently suppress the anti-corruption, anti-sectarian protests of the October 2019 revolution.
For Lebanese exhausted by chronic state failures and economic collapse, Hezbollah鈥檚 unique status as a heavily armed state-within-a-state is increasingly a key part of the problem, not of the solution.
Some now see the first chance in years of changing Lebanon鈥檚 internal political equation.
鈥淲hat is visible to me is that other political parties in Lebanon are trying to capitalize on this, seeing this as an opportunity not only to undermine Hezbollah, but also to reassert their position within the political system,鈥� says Carnegie鈥檚 Ms. Yahya. The party 鈥渟till has 13 members of parliament, so the political framework, the political scaffolding is still there.鈥�
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to deepen divisions on Oct. 8, warning Lebanese in a videotaped message to sideline Hezbollah or risk civil war.
鈥満＝谴笊駍, Druze, Muslims 鈥� Sunni and Shia 鈥� all of you are suffering because of Hezbollah鈥檚 futile war against Israel,鈥� he said. 鈥淵ou have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza,鈥� Mr. Netanyahu said. 鈥淪tand up and take your country back.鈥�
Lebanon鈥檚 political reckoning
While few Lebanese will heed any warning from the Israeli leader, it highlights the fragility of Hezbollah鈥檚 position.
鈥淗ezbollah is destroyed not as a faction, but as an idea,鈥� says Makram Rabah, an assistant professor of history and archaeology at the American University of Beirut. 鈥淗ezbollah鈥檚 supernarrative is that they have the ability to defend Lebanon, and defend the Shiites, and ultimately liberate Palestine. None of these credos have been effective.鈥�
As long as Hezbollah keeps firing at Israel, 鈥淭hey can still claim that they have the capacity to fight,鈥� he says. But Hezbollah has lost politically by forgetting its endurance requires grassroots support, beyond the Shiite community.
鈥淧eople who were hesitant to take them on believed for some time that these [Hezbollah] weapons could defend Lebanon,鈥� says Dr. Rabah. 鈥淣ow they have proved that they could not even defend themselves.鈥�
Yet while Hezbollah may be knocked off its pedestal, it continues to fire rockets and battle Israeli forces.
More and more Lebanese 鈥� like the 海角大神s of Deir Billa, for instance, and many disillusioned Shiites 鈥� say the Lebanese army should be made strong enough to deploy all the way to the southern border.
Hezbollah 鈥渁re trying to simply play out the clock, because they believe that they can win by points,鈥� says Dr. Rabah. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a David and Goliath thing. You don鈥檛 really need to defeat Goliath; you just need to sidestep him until something happens.鈥�
It is not clear what that 鈥渟omething鈥� may be, with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump likely to give Israel even more leeway than the Biden administration has to strike Hezbollah. But inside Lebanon, the political reckoning has begun.
鈥淵ou have 1.3 million displaced people who will never go back unless Hezbollah disarms,鈥� says Dr. Rabah. 鈥淲e won鈥檛 give them money this time to turn our villages again into bunkers and into ammunition depots.鈥�
