Israel takes its conflict with Hezbollah to the brink of war
| London
As Israeli jets continued to pound Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, and Hezbollah extended its barrage of rocket fire ever deeper into Israeli territory, concerns grew that brinkmanship could tip the Middle East into a wider regional war.
For the time being, Hezbollah appears unwilling to raise the stakes. The heavily armed militia 鈥渋s ready鈥� for an all-out war, says one of its fighters in Beirut, but is 鈥渢rying to avoid鈥� such an outcome for fear of heavy civilian casualties. 鈥淏ut if we are pushed into a corner, yes, we will fight,鈥� he says.
Hezbollah鈥檚 patron, Iran, also appears cautious. 鈥淲e do not want to be the cause of instability in the Middle East,鈥� Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian told reporters in New York on Monday. 鈥淚ts consequences could be irreversible.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Israel鈥檚 unusually heavy bombardment of Hezbollah positions in Lebanon puts militia leader Hassan Nasrallah in an awkward spot, balancing his credibility with his desire to avoid full-scale war.
But he pledged that Tehran would 鈥渄efend any group that is defending its rights and itself,鈥� and later told CNN that 鈥淗ezbollah cannot stand alone against a country that is being defended and supported and supplied鈥� by the U.S. and Western countries.
Israel, meanwhile, is acting unusually belligerently, stepping up hostilities last week with two mass attacks on Hezbollah communications networks. In the most lethal day of conflict in Lebanon for decades, on Monday, 558 people died as Israel struck 1,600 targets and claimed to have destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rockets.
鈥淚srael is on the fast track to war, even if the public has not been told,鈥� military analyst Amos Harel wrote in Tuesday鈥檚 Ha鈥檃retz newspaper.
Who wants war, who doesn鈥檛?
This has put Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an awkward spot, as he seeks to maintain his group鈥檚 credibility while avoiding all-out war that could leave Hezbollah in shreds. Balancing those two considerations will not be easy in the middle of such a swift spiral of escalation, this time driven by Israel, after a year of carefully calibrated increases in Hezbollah rocket fire.
鈥淚t is evident from Hezbollah鈥檚 [limited] actions that they still don鈥檛 want a war and won鈥檛 be goaded into it,鈥� says Nicholas Blanford, author of 鈥淲arriors of God: Inside Hezbollah鈥檚 Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel.鈥�
鈥淚 think the Israelis have concluded that, because Hezbollah does not want a war, because Iran doesn鈥檛 want a war, it gives them more leeway to escalate, in the knowledge that there is little risk of a major blowback,鈥� Mr. Blanford suggests.
Notably, in a bid to find an acceptable balance, Hezbollah has shown no signs yet of being ready to use its high precision long-range guided missiles that could wreak havoc on Israeli cities. Nonetheless, warns Mr. Blanford, 鈥淭he intensity of fighting on both sides has risen much closer to that threshold which, when crossed, will lead to war.鈥�
The two sides last waged an all-out conflict in 2006, for 34 days. Since then, mutual deterrence has prevailed, as each side has spent the intervening years preparing for a decisive, final fight against the other 鈥� while also avoiding such a costly and destructive battle.
Those calculations may now be changing, after a year of ever-widening regional conflict triggered by Hamas鈥� cross-border attack from Gaza on Oct. 7 last year, which left 1,200 Israelis dead and 250 hostages.
What鈥檚 it all about?
Israel鈥檚 declared goal for its current wave of air raids on Hezbollah rocket installations is to 鈥渃hange the security balance, the balance of power in the north鈥� of Israel, in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu鈥檚 words.
That would then make it safe for the region鈥檚 60,000 residents to return home, after having been evacuated last October when Hezbollah, in support of Hamas in Gaza, began rocketing Israeli towns and villages in the area. Hamas is a member of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance against Israel.
Some observers, however, see a broader aim behind the stepped-up Israeli operation than ensuring security for Israeli citizens in the north of the country.
鈥淭here appears to be a change in the Israeli approach 鈥� for something deeper 鈥� breaking down the Axis of Resistance that supports one another,鈥� says Ehud Eiran, a professor of International Affairs at Haifa University. 鈥淚f Israel can take Hezbollah out of the equation, that鈥檚 a big statement on the limitations of the [anti-Israel] alliance.鈥�
Such an effort, though, would almost certainly provoke an Iranian response in support of the most powerful arm of its Axis of Resistance. It would likely also prompt Mr. Nasrallah to play his trump card 鈥� the precision guided missiles 鈥� in a last ditch effort to force Israel to back down.
In the meantime, says Mr. Blanford, an analyst with the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank, 鈥渢he Israelis are now intensifying, presumably in the hope that Hezbollah will say 鈥極K, we give up, we鈥檝e had enough, stop.鈥欌��
鈥淭hat鈥檚 never going to happen,鈥� he predicts. 鈥淭hat is not in Hezbollah鈥檚 DNA. They will not stop because that would be tantamount to surrender and defeat, and then they would face a massive backlash from the Lebanese 鈥� for dragging Lebanon into a costly war without getting anything out of it.鈥�
Special correspondent Dina Kraft contributed reporting to this article from Tel Aviv, Israel.
