Israel-Hamas: The harder hostage negotiations still to come
| LONDON
Both Israelis and Palestinians have reveled in the results of the temporary cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
In its initial four days, the pause in fighting paved the way for the release of 50 civilian Israeli hostages by Hamas, the militant group that rules Gaza, in exchange for the freeing of 150 Palestinian security prisoners by Israel.
The pause 鈥� so far extended by two days through Wednesday 鈥� has led to tearful scenes and moments of national elation in Israel, as the daily batches of freed women and children rejoined loved ones after seven weeks of Hamas captivity.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onVery soon, Israelis and Palestinians will run out of comparatively easy things to do to extend the cease-fire. Then, they鈥檒l have to get to the hard things. How that goes will largely be determined by Israel, which faces pressure to resume fighting.
There have also been daily scenes of public jubilation and flying of the green Hamas flag in the occupied West Bank, as Palestinian women and children 鈥� some incarcerated for stone-throwing or making knives 鈥� were reunited with their families.
On Tuesday, a further 10 Israeli hostages and 30 Palestinian prisoners were released, preserving the agreed-upon 3-1 ratio.
The original cease-fire deal 鈥� negotiated by Qatar and shepherded by the United States 鈥� paused the Israeli military offensive in Gaza that seeks to 鈥渄estroy鈥� Hamas following its Oct. 7 attack on Israel, which left 1,200 people dead and 240 captured and shook the Jewish state to its core.
More than 13,000 people have been killed in Gaza, including thousands of children, in the Israeli offensive, and Israeli leaders have vowed to resume the military campaign when the cease-fire expires. High-level talks are continuing in Qatar to extend the pause.
For both sides, the hostage deal has so far involved trading low-hanging fruit 鈥撀爐he Israelis freed by Hamas, for example, include 3-year-old twin girls 鈥� but analysts say the point is swiftly approaching when the price demanded by one side or the other will become unacceptably high.
鈥淲e are running out of road very quickly, even if we get extensions, on this format,鈥� says Daniel Levy, president of the U.S./Middle East Project and a former Israeli negotiator with the Palestinians under former Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Yitzhak Rabin.
鈥淭here is a formula for civilians, for women, children, elderly, and the unwell, and that formula can go a fair bit further,鈥� says Mr. Levy. 鈥淏ut ... once it comes to soldiers and fighting-age males 鈥� the majority of whom would be considered reservists 鈥� it鈥檚 a different formula, so you need to renegotiate that.
鈥淏ut you also can鈥檛 negotiate that out of the context of what is the broader end to this phase of hostilities,鈥� he says. 鈥淟et鈥檚 put it bluntly: Hamas is not going to give up the soldiers, and not get close to giving up everyone who is not a soldier, until they have a much better prisoner offer on the table 鈥� and parameters for ending the overall campaign.
鈥淲hy would they [Hamas] give up the last ones, without something that looks like a guarantee that Israel can鈥檛 continue doing what it鈥檚 doing now indefinitely?鈥� asks Mr. Levy.
For Hamas, Israel鈥檚 stated war aims and Hamas鈥� finite number of hostages to use as bargaining chips will almost certainly raise the price of captured Israeli soldiers. Hamas leaders have spoken of an 鈥渁ll-for-all鈥� exchange of all hostages for the release of all Palestinian prisoners, who now number some 7,200 鈥撀燼 step no Israeli government has ever taken.
And for Israel, waiting for an uncertain outcome of hostage releases means delaying momentum of its聽war, while聽under increased pressure from the U.S. and other nations to ease the conflict.聽It also means聽ultimately being forced to decide if聽the聽bid to destroy Hamas outweighs the lives of scores or more of Israelis who might not yet be free.
Releasing all Palestinians is 鈥渞eally a nonstarter for Israel,鈥� says Gershon Baskin, an Israeli peace process adviser and negotiator who was instrumental in the 2011 release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who spent five years in Hamas captivity. In that deal, more than 1,000 Palestinians were released from prison, including Yahya Sinwar 鈥� the current leader of Hamas in Gaza and architect of the Oct. 7 attack.
鈥淭he red line over the last eight years has been prisoners with blood on their hands, prisoners who have killed Israelis. And looking back on the Shalit deal, I think there are people in the government who will hold fast to that,鈥� says Mr. Baskin, author of 鈥淭he Negotiator: Freeing Gilad Schalit From Hamas.鈥�
鈥淪inwar is going to start by demanding the prisoners who have served the most time, who are prisoners who have killed Israelis,鈥� says Mr. Baskin.
鈥淗is gold standard is what he said on the day he was released from prison [in 2011], and has said in every speech since, that he will empty the Israeli prisons. That鈥檚 his goal.
鈥淔orget the numbers,鈥� Mr. Baskin says. 鈥淚f it were 300 prisoners, it would be the same thing. But there are 7,200 prisoners; his goal is to release every single Palestinian prisoner.鈥�
Such a negotiation is all the more challenging for Israel, as it simultaneously tries to destroy Hamas militarily. That war aim may be possible to achieve to a degree, says Mr. Baskin, but any real solution must reach beyond the current crisis 鈥� and current leadership, on both sides 鈥� to a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
鈥淵ou can鈥檛 destroy Hamas as an idea with weapons,鈥� he says. 鈥淔or that you need a better idea, which has to be a genuine peace process, the establishment of the state of Palestine, the recognition of the state of Palestine, massive international engagement involved in rebuilding Gaza and lifting the Palestinian economy. Forcing Israel to end the occupation.
鈥淭hose are the ideas that beat Hamas,鈥� says Mr. Baskin.
鈥淪o the question is: Is [the peace process] going to be genuine?鈥� asks Mr. Baskin. 鈥淎nd what are the mechanisms that are going to demonstrate that each side is fighting its own internal insurgents against peace? No one can be sure 100% of peace, but it really depends on the effort being made.鈥�
And getting to that point may depend on the results of Israel鈥檚 deeper sweep into Gaza, and of any further cease-fire extensions. After ordering Gaza residents weeks ago to leave the north of the strip for the south for their own safety, Israeli forces have now dropped leaflets on the southern city of Khan Yunis, asking Palestinians to leave again.
鈥淚 genuinely don鈥檛 think it is so difficult on the Hamas side, because in no small measure they have won already. If this ended tomorrow, [for Hamas] what鈥檚 not to like?鈥� says Mr. Levy of the U.S./Middle East Project.
鈥淪o I think the real sticking point is on the Israeli side: Under what circumstances, what level of pressure, internal and external, can the Israeli leadership ... be talked down from, 鈥榃e are going to carry on for as long as it takes,鈥� and going into Khan Yunis and southern Gaza?鈥� asks Mr. Levy.
鈥淚 just don鈥檛 see how that happens,鈥� he adds, 鈥渨ithout some combination of an even stronger domestic push that is led by the families of the missing, that got us to this moment 鈥� we should be under no illusions that, if it weren鈥檛 for the public pressure of the families, this pause wouldn鈥檛 have happened 鈥� and of course American pressure that this has to be brought to an end.鈥�
