Why quakes that razed homes may raise up Turkey鈥檚 Erdo臒an
| Antakya, Turkey
Meryem Eger has suffered more than most mothers.聽
When her apartment in downtown Antakya began to crumble during the 7.8-magnitude earthquake on Feb. 6, and furniture blocked the way out, she thought she鈥檇 never see her family again.
In fact, they all survived. But her husband lost his job as a driver. Her son, partially deaf, lost his medical treatment. Her daughter is still out of high school. Today the four live in a tent, in the hills above this southern Turkish city, where many homeless fled, preferring the security of the rocky outcrop to the soft earth of the valley below.
Why We Wrote This
Pundits predicted that earthquake victims would take out their anger on President Erdo臒an. They were wrong. In Turkey, political preferences have hardened into polarized identities.
Given the hardships they are facing, Ms. Eger and her new neighbors might have been expected to vote against President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an at elections two weeks ago. It turned out, though, that far more earthquake survivors than predicted cast their votes for the president 鈥� helping to prolong the race to a second round this Sunday.
Their votes drew harsh criticism from President Erdo臒an鈥檚 opponents, and Ms. Eger feels unfairly targeted. 鈥淲hen we saw bad words about us, we felt deep pain,鈥� Ms. Eger says. 鈥淭o live through what we have experienced, I wish to God nobody ever experiences this.鈥�
The blame game has served to reinforce the polarization that has defined Turkey under Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 leadership, even after the February earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people and spread shared grief across ethnic and political lines. And it helps explain why Erdo臒an loyalists still predominate in the hills of Antakya despite the president鈥檚 authoritarian grip 鈥� and despite his government鈥檚 responsibility for lax construction regulations and a chaotic emergency response that exacerbated the disaster.
鈥淭his聽is a very divided country, right down the middle,鈥� says聽Asl谋 Ayd谋nta艧ba艧, a Turkish analyst at the Brookings聽Institution in Washington.聽鈥淧eople who have hated聽Erdo臒an聽have come to see it as just a story of utter failure,鈥� while his supporters have 鈥渂ought the narrative that this is God-given ... and that Erdo臒an聽is doing his best.鈥�
In the chasm between the two lies an enormous potential for misunderstanding.
Defying expectations
Political observers initially thought that the earthquakes鈥� impact, turning victims against the authorities, might finally usher in change after 20 years of Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 rule. In the run-up to presidential and parliamentary elections, polls showed Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚聽national support slipping amid economic woes, including high inflation.
Instead, President Erdo臒an鈥檚聽Justice and Development Party聽(AKP)聽came out on top in parliamentary elections in 10 of 11 provinces hit by the quakes. In Hatay province, of which Antakya (once known as Antioch) is the capital, Mr. Erdo臒an failed to secure an outright majority of the votes by only five-hundredths of a percentage point.
Nationally he prevailed with 49.5% of the vote over 44.9% for his opponent聽Kemal K谋l谋莽daro臒lu of聽the opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP). That made Antakya campaign territory this week.
Here the AKP is the face of relief efforts. Mr. Erdo臒an visited Antakya last Sunday to inaugurate a new hospital and a container city. 鈥淒espite what they say,鈥� he told the crowd, 鈥測our government is here for you.鈥�
Mr. Erdo臒an has promised to rebuild everybody鈥檚 homes within a year 鈥� a goal everyone wants to believe in but which most experts consider unrealistic with hundreds of thousands still homeless.
As recovery grinds into a fourth month, Mehmet G眉zelmansur, a national assemblyman for the CHP in Hatay province, faults the AKP for making promises it can鈥檛 keep. But they are attractive promises and Mr. Erdo臒an is a familiar face. 鈥淭he people know Erdo臒an,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey hear Erdo臒an is going to construct new houses,鈥� and they trust him.
That message is carried across a media landscape that is largely controlled by the government, say observers. Mr. Erdo臒an cracked down on dissent after a 2016 coup and changed the way Turkey is governed, from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system that has consolidated power in the hands of the executive.聽
鈥淭he media聽portray the government as an effective political party providing the citizens in the region with relief,鈥� says Berk Esen, a professor of comparative politics at Sabanc谋 University.
It seems to work. 鈥淗e is doing everything for the south,鈥� says聽Mehmet Hilmi Bilge, a retired construction worker who lost his home and is now living in a container. 鈥淭he container has everything I need,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t鈥檚 much better than a tent.鈥�
But perhaps the real explanation of why the AKP came out on top in the first round of elections in the earthquake zone overall is simply that much of the region has long been traditional AKP territory. And as in the United States and Brazil today, 鈥減olitical preferences have turned into identities,鈥� says Emre Erdo臒an, a professor of political science at Istanbul Bilgi University.
On the shores of the Orontes River in Antakya鈥檚 Atat眉rk Park 鈥� named after the founder of modern Turkey, who secularized the country and sought closer ties to Europe 鈥� Mr. K谋l谋莽daro臒lu addressed his many supporters on Tuesday against the backdrop of near complete ruins, promising honesty and democratization. Supporters chanted back: 鈥淭he hope of young people 鈥� K谋l谋莽daro臒lu!鈥�
鈥淲e want our freedom as women,鈥� says nursing graduate Ay莽a Dal, attending the rally with her family and friends who also say they want Islam to play a less significant role in Turkish politics.
But their vision is starkly different from that commonly found in poorer neighborhoods, in surrounding mountain towns and heartland provinces, where conservative religious voters聽have long made up President聽Erdo臒an鈥檚 intensely loyal base.
When the president called the earthquakes 鈥減art of destiny鈥檚 plan,鈥� many dismissed it as a crude political ploy, but others found solace in it. 鈥淭hey have a lot of trauma to deal with,鈥� Professor聽Erdo臒an says,聽鈥渁nd maybe religion helps them.鈥�
At the mercy of aid
Sultan Ero臒lu鈥檚 hillside house is only moderately damaged. But聽Ms. Ero臒lu聽is so fearful that a new tremor will destroy it that she has pitched a tent outside the family home for herself and her husband, young son, and elderly mother-in-law. It鈥檚 just up the sidewalk from where Ms. Eger鈥檚 tent stands.
A deeply pious woman, Ms. Ero臒lu is angered by those who posted messages on social media after the first round of elections declaring that they would no longer support earthquake victims who had voted for President聽Erdo臒an. 鈥淲e are at the mercy of those who help us,鈥� she says.
In fact, the women here on a recent day, who care for each other鈥檚 children, feel forgotten; the elections are far from their minds. Ms. Ero臒lu holds a baby who was just 10 days old when the earthquakes struck. She is preoccupied with the care of her own 9-year-old son, whose spinal problems prevent him from walking properly.
As she speaks, a truck arrives to distribute boxes of diapers, baby food, and staples like rice. No one seems to know, or care, about the politics behind the aid, which has come from a city on the other side of the country.聽
And yet her vote for Mr. Erdo臒an is instinctive, without any fuller explanation than her conviction that he is the man to defend their interests as they try to restore their lives. 鈥淗e,鈥� she says, 鈥渋s the one who will support us.鈥�
