Turkey鈥檚 runoff presidential election: Is democracy at stake?
| Ankara, Turkey
Two opposing visions for Turkey鈥檚 future are on the ballot when voters return to the polls Sunday for a runoff presidential election that will decide between an increasingly authoritarian incumbent and a challenger who has pledged to restore democracy.
President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, a populist and polarizing leader who has ruled Turkey for 20 years, is well positioned to win after falling just short of victory in the first round of balloting May 14. He was the top finisher even as the country reeled from sky-high inflation and the effects of a devastating earthquake in February.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey鈥檚 pro-secular main opposition party and a six-party alliance, has campaigned on a promise to undo Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 authoritarian tilt. The former bureaucrat has described the runoff as a referendum on the direction of the strategically located NATO country, which is at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and has a key say over the alliance鈥檚 expansion.
鈥淭his is an existential struggle. Turkey will either be dragged into darkness or light,鈥� Mr. Kilicdaroglu said. 鈥淭his is more than an election. It has turned into a referendum.鈥�
In a bid to sway nationalist voters ahead of Sunday鈥檚 runoff, the normally soft-mannered Mr. Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo) shifted gear and hardened his stance, vowing to send back millions of refugees if he is elected and rejecting any possibility of peace negotiations with Kurdish militants.
The social democrat had previously said he planned to repatriate Syrians within two years, after establishing economic and safety conditions conducive to their return.
He has also repeatedly called on 8 million people who stayed away from the polls in the first round to cast votes in the make-or-break runoff.
Mr.聽Erdo臒an scored 49.5% of the vote in the first round. Mr. Kilicdaroglu received 44.9%.
Mr. Erdo臒an is already Turkey鈥檚 longest-serving leader, having ruled over the country as prime minister since 2003 and as president since 2014. He could remain in power until 2028 if reelected.
Under Mr. Erdo臒an, Turkey has proven to be an indispensable and sometimes troublesome NATO ally.
It vetoed Sweden鈥檚 bid to join the alliance and purchased Russian missile-defense systems, which prompted the United States to oust Turkey from a U.S.-led fighter jet project. Yet together with the United Nations, Turkey also brokered a vital deal that allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea to parts of the world struggling with hunger.
This week, Mr.聽Erdo臒an received the endorsement of the nationalist third-place candidate, Sinan Ogan, who garnered 5.2% of the vote. The move was seen as a boost for Mr.聽Erdo臒an even though Mr. Ogan鈥檚 supporters are not a monolithic bloc, and not all of his votes are expected to go to Mr. Erdo臒an.
Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 nationalist-Islamist alliance also retained its hold on parliament in legislative elections two weeks ago, further increasing his chances for reelection as many voters are likely to want to avoid a split government.
On Wednesday, the leader of a hard-line anti-migrant party that had backed Mr. Ogan threw its weight behind Mr. Kilicdaroglu after the two signed a protocol pledging to send back millions of migrants and refugees within the year.
Mr. Kilicdaroglu鈥檚 chances of turning the vote around in his favor appear slim but could hinge on the opposition鈥檚 ability to mobilize voters who did not cast ballots in the first round.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not possible to say that the odds are favoring him, but nevertheless, technically, he stands a chance,鈥� said Prof. Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul鈥檚 Kadir Has University.
If the opposition can reach the voters who previously stayed home, 鈥渋t may be a different story.鈥�
In Istanbul, Serra Ural accused Mr.聽Erdo臒an of mishandling the economy and said she would vote for Mr. Kilicdaroglu.
She also expressed concerns over the rights of women after Mr.聽Erdo臒an extended his alliance to include Huda-Par, a hard-line Kurdish Islamist political party with alleged links to a group that was responsible for a series of gruesome killings in the 1990s. The party wants to abolish mixed-gender education, advocates for the criminalization of adultery, and says women should prioritize their homes over work.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 know what will happen to women tomorrow or the next day, what condition they鈥檒l be in,鈥� she said. 鈥淭o be honest Huda-Par scares us, especially women.鈥�
Mehmet Nergis said he would vote for Mr.聽Erdo臒an for stability.
Mr.聽Erdo臒an 鈥渋s the guarantee for a more stable future,鈥� Mr. Nergis said. 鈥淓veryone around the world has already seen how far he has brought Turkey.鈥�
He dismissed the country鈥檚 economic woes and expressed confidence that Mr.聽Erdo臒an would make improvements.
Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 campaign has focused on rebuilding areas devastated by the earthquake, which leveled cities and left more than 50,000 dead in Turkey. He has promised to build 319,000 homes within the year.
In the parliamentary election, Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 alliance won 10 out of 11 provinces in the region affected by the quake despite criticism that his government鈥檚 initial disaster response was slow.
Mr.聽Erdo臒an has repeatedly portrayed Kilicdaroglu as colluding with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers鈥� Party, or PKK, after the opposition party leader received the backing of the country鈥檚 pro-Kurdish party.
During a rally in Istanbul, Mr.聽Erdo臒an broadcast a faked video purporting to show a PKK commander singing the opposition鈥檚 campaign song to hundreds of thousands of his supporters. On Monday, Mr.聽Erdo臒an doubled down on the narrative, insisting that the PKK has thrown its support to Kilicdaroglu whether the video is 鈥渇aked or not.鈥�
鈥淢ost analysts failed to gauge the impact of Erdo臒an鈥檚 campaign against Kilicdaroglu,鈥� Mr. Guvenc said. 鈥淭his obviously did strike a chord with the average nationalist-religious electorate in Turkey.鈥�
鈥淧olitics today is about building and sustaining a narrative which shadows the reality,鈥� he added. 鈥淓rdo臒an and his people are very successful in building narratives that eclipse realities.鈥�
This story was reported by The Associated Press.
