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Biden in Israel: A meeting of the (moderate) minds?

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Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
A worker irons an American flag as part of the preparations for President Joe Biden's visit this week, inside the Israeli president's residence in Jerusalem, July 11, 2022

Joe Biden is set to make his maiden trip as president to the Middle East this week, landing in Israel Wednesday before flying to a regional summit in Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

Much of the attention will be on the president鈥檚 meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman 鈥 once referred to by Mr. Biden as a 鈥減ariah.鈥 But in Jerusalem he will be hosted by a friendly Israeli leader much closer to the president鈥檚 own political values 鈥 a moderate with 鈥渁n aversion to extremes.鈥

Mere weeks ago, this wasn鈥檛 a given. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid assumed the top spot as caretaker late last month after the dissolution of the broad, 1-year-old government he formed and led alongside the more right-wing Naftali Bennett.

Why We Wrote This

Joe Biden鈥檚 meeting in Israel with Yair Lapid brings together two democratic leaders who embrace moderation and deplore extremism, potentially opening the door to cooperation and trust.

With snap elections scheduled for Nov. 1 鈥 Israel鈥檚 fifth ballot in less than four years 鈥 President Biden鈥檚 long-planned visit comes at a crucial moment for Mr. Lapid as he takes his first tentative steps in office while attempting to solidify his electoral prospects.

One subtext for the Biden visit: avoiding discord over fraught issues, such as Palestinian-Israeli diplomacy and Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, that could weaken Mr. Lapid鈥檚 standing.

The symmetry and commonalities between Mr. Biden and Mr. Lapid were plainly evident in their campaigns for office. In March 2021, as head of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Mr. Lapid was fighting to finally unseat the long-serving and right-wing Benjamin Netanyahu. His goals, as he said in an interview at the time, were to restore 鈥渟anity鈥 to Israeli politics, to fight against the 鈥減olitics of fear and hate,鈥 and to ensure the country鈥檚 future as a liberal democracy.

The campaign Mr. Lapid ran back then, advised by an American strategist allied to the Democratic Party, drew comparisons to Mr. Biden鈥檚 successful general election victory a few months prior 鈥 right down to the conscious effort to hover above the toxic fray and to restore a modicum of decorum to the proceedings.

鈥淚f you鈥檙e trying to represent a culture that stands in opposition to all the hate and bigotry and type of campaign talk of recent years, then you need to start with yourself. You shouldn鈥檛 be part of it,鈥 Mr. Lapid said in the interview. 鈥淣o one needs me to yell and curse, and I鈥檓 not that successful at it.鈥

鈥淭hat which unites us鈥

It worked for him. Mr. Lapid was able to cobble together a broad coalition government that was the most ideologically diverse in Israel鈥檚 history: eight parties spanning the spectrum from pro-settler right-wingers to pro-peace leftists and centrists. And for the first time in Israeli history, it included an Arab-Israeli faction.

In his inaugural speech to the nation as prime minister on July 2, Mr. Lapid spoke of the 鈥渃ommon good鈥 and 鈥渢hat which unites us.鈥

鈥淭here will always be disagreements,鈥 Mr. Lapid added in the speech. 鈥淭he question is how we manage them, and how we make sure they don鈥檛 manage us. The deep Israeli truth is that on most of the truly important topics, we believe in the same things.鈥

Israeli officials and analysts have highlighted the fact that the two leaders also believe in many of the same things. According to one senior Israeli official, who requested anonymity, they鈥檙e both 鈥渃entrists, pragmatists, and moderates who have an aversion to extremes,鈥 and truly perceive themselves as bulwarks against the rise of populist nationalism in their countries.

鈥淏oth leaders express concern regarding the illiberal winds blowing in their respective democracies, so there鈥檚 a potential bond there,鈥 says Dan Shapiro, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and former U.S. ambassador to Israel in the Obama administration. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e both aware of their responsibilities to conduct themselves according to democratic norms, institutions, and values.鈥

Ariel Schalit/AP
Yair Lapid, then Israel's foreign minister, smiles ahead of the vote on a bill to dissolve the Knesset, Israel's parliament, in Jerusalem, June 30, 2022. Mr. Lapid is now serving as caretaker prime minister until elections this fall, Israel's fifth in under four years.

The emphasis on shared values also extends to Mr. Lapid鈥檚 long-stated support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the government鈥檚 effort since taking office to repair relations with the Democratic Party in the U.S. and restore Israel鈥檚 bipartisan support in Washington.

鈥淚鈥檝e had a disagreement with Netanyahu for some time, about the fact that he completely associated Israel with the Republican Party, and not even with the entire Republican Party but with the [Donald] Trump wing of the Republican Party,鈥 Mr. Lapid said in the interview last year. 鈥淔or years I told Netanyahu 鈥 this will end badly.鈥

The Netanyahu issue

The mending of ties over the past year, according to analysts, has been successful. Major policy disagreements, particularly on the Iran nuclear threat, were managed behind closed doors, with the Biden administration careful not to press the Bennett-Lapid government on issues, like the Palestinian conflict, with the potential to destabilize its fragile hold on power.

The unstated American goal? To avoid a return to power by Mr. Netanyahu.

鈥淭he U.S. administration was very interested in [the survival of] this government,鈥 says Gili Cohen, diplomatic correspondent for Israel鈥檚 Kan Public Broadcaster. 鈥淭he diversity of the Israeli government was a major factor in this 鈥 not just ideologically, but also with respect to the number of women serving as ministers, that an Arab-Israeli was a minister, that an Arab-Israeli party was part of the coalition.鈥

To be sure, Mr. Biden will, per official protocol, meet as well with Mr. Netanyahu, now the opposition leader, albeit for a scheduled 15 minutes. According to Ambassador Shapiro, whatever the personal preference of the American president in terms of the identity of the Israeli premier, Mr. Biden is savvy enough to avoid getting entangled in domestic Israeli politics.

鈥淎ny U.S. effort to influence an Israeli election is ill-advised and likely to be unsuccessful. [Biden] will play it straight,鈥 Mr. Shapiro says. 鈥淭his will produce the best policy result and it鈥檚 the best politics too.鈥

None of this means that the expected warm embrace of the U.S. president will not be a boon for Mr. Lapid鈥檚 reelection chances.

鈥淲ithout a doubt 鈥 it will help him,鈥 says Ms. Cohen. Mr. Netanyahu, during successive election campaigns, touted his self-image as a global statesman, erecting giant billboards across the country with his picture alongside world leaders like Mr. Trump, Russia鈥檚 Vladimir Putin, and India鈥檚 Narendra Modi. The tagline: 鈥淣etanyahu: A League Apart.鈥

鈥淟apid doesn鈥檛 have those images yet, so he wants to project himself to the public as a real candidate for prime minister that鈥檚 playing in the big leagues,鈥 says Ms. Cohen. 鈥淓very moment and interaction and picture with Biden will be seized on by Lapid.鈥

During the next four months ahead of election day, Mr. Lapid will try to show the voting public that he is up to the job of running the complicated and fractious country.

鈥淭he public will reward a prime minister doing a good job, who they feel they can trust,鈥 says the senior Israeli official.

Outreach to Palestinian leader

What Mr. Lapid does in the office, and how he chooses to govern, will be made clearer in the coming days alongside Mr. Biden on a host of policy issues, although no major shifts are expected from his partner Mr. Bennett鈥檚 tenure. 鈥淒ifferent nuances perhaps, but not huge differences,鈥 adds the Israeli official.

Mr. Lapid, this past weekend, already spoke by phone with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, a step Mr. Bennett refused to take. and some small-bore measures are being countenanced to help support the Palestinian economy and health system.

Israel also expects further moves toward normalization with its Arab neighbors to come out of the Biden visit, including possible aviation links with Saudi Arabia and progress toward a regional air defense system. And according to Israeli officials, Israel鈥檚 opposition to the Iran nuclear agreement 鈥 which the Biden administration has aimed to restore 鈥 will continue, albeit with the aim of further coordinating Israeli and U.S. positions in the event that talks with Iran completely collapse.

Fundamentally, however, the two leaders鈥 wholehearted and almost unconditional support for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship is expected to be the main guiding theme for the coming days. Mr. Biden has long described himself as a Zionist and repeatedly highlights the fact that he has met with every Israeli premier dating back to the early 1970s.

鈥淏iden鈥檚 emotional attachment to Israel has been central to his politics during his decadeslong career,鈥 says Ambassador Shapiro. 鈥淪o a visit to Israel early in his term is very natural.鈥

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