Afghanistan: Taliban and government talk, but fighting feeds distrust
| London
At the negotiating table, days into landmark intra-Afghan talks to end decades of war, platitudes about the need for peace are interwoven with haggling over procedure.
But perhaps more tellingly, on Afghanistan鈥檚 weary battlefields, the killing continues, as if negotiation teams from the Afghan government and Taliban insurgents were not now meeting in Doha, Qatar.
On Thursday, the government in Kabul said at least 27 security personnel and 36 Taliban fighters had been killed in conflict across five provinces in the previous 24 hours.
Why We Wrote This
The Taliban and the Afghan government have traveled a long road, rhetorically and practically, to reach the negotiating table in Qatar. With peace and/or regime change the prize, a long road ahead looms.
One result of the continued violence is that a substantial trust deficit has grown even deeper, as each side seeks to delegitimize the other and maximize its聽gains in any new power-sharing arrangement, which could take months or even years to negotiate.
Even as talks began Sept. 12 鈥� when a government call for an immediate cease-fire was rejected by the Taliban 鈥� the defense ministry counted Taliban attacks across 18 of the country鈥檚 34 provinces.
鈥淚t would be a miscalculation to think that causing more casualties would make people more hopeful about peace,鈥� warned Abdullah Abdullah, chair of Afghanistan鈥檚 High Council for National Reconciliation.
Yet Taliban spokesman Mohammad Naeem Wardak said an enduring cease-fire first required a broader negotiated deal. 鈥淚t does not make sense to end 20 years of war in one hour,鈥� he told ToloNews Wednesday.
At stake: Regime change
The stakes could not be higher amid a U.S.-engineered peace process designed to bring the jihadist Taliban back into the halls of power and pave the way for withdrawal from America鈥檚 longest-ever war.
Analysts say the highest risk in the negotiations is to the U.S.-backed democratic republic led by President Ashraf Ghani 鈥� and the Western-style freedoms it espouses 鈥撀爄f the talks culminate in de facto 鈥渞egime change.鈥�
鈥淭he first big question is: Are they going to be able to reach a cease-fire anytime soon, in these next few weeks? And if not, what does a peace process look like with fighting at such high levels?鈥� says Andrew Watkins, the senior Afghanistan analyst for the International Crisis Group.
鈥淥n both sides, this is about more than just a lack of trust,鈥� says Mr. Watkins. Both sides 鈥渁re actively seeking to deny legitimacy to the other side. ... Very coldly, the Taliban know that the Afghan government looks weak and ineffective every time it has security problems.鈥�
And any cease-fire is a gift to Kabul, enabling it to address Afghans鈥� many other problems, if it is not preoccupied with the war.
鈥淪o on one level, why would the Taliban allow the government space to make itself more effective?鈥� asks Mr. Watkins. 鈥淚t鈥檚 terrible to think that the cost of that strategic maneuver is continuing to kill fellow Afghans, day after day.鈥�
U.S. withdrawal
These unprecedented intra-Afghan talks are the result of a deal signed last February between the United States and the Taliban 颅鈥� itself an agreement that required nearly a year of diplomacy 鈥撀爐hat the Taliban have trumpeted as 鈥渧ictory.鈥� It called for complete withdrawal of all U.S. and NATO forces, in exchange for the Taliban not allowing Afghan soil to be used for attacks abroad.
The Pentagon says the remaining 8,600 American troops will be whittled down to 4,500 by November.
For the Taliban, this sense of triumph has exacerbated the trust deficit by raising expectations that it can achieve, with little compromise, its core demands of greater Islamic rule and renewed legitimacy inside a system where it has significant control.
鈥淭his is their [most] golden time in the last 20 years. ... They are coming with the attitude of the winners,鈥� says Rahmatullah Amiri, a Kabul-based political analyst and expert on the Taliban, speaking of the arch-conservative group.
鈥淵ou see [the Taliban] brought unity among their lines, they brought everyone on board with peace talks, they brought legitimacy to their side,鈥� says Mr. Amiri. 鈥淭hey got more than what they expected in the last two years, both militarily and politically, so that鈥檚 a big boost to their morale when they come to the negotiating table.鈥�
鈥淣ow it鈥檚 the Taliban鈥檚 turn鈥�
The Taliban鈥檚 new chief negotiator, the influential religious scholar Mawlawi Abdul Hakim Haqqani, told both negotiating teams Tuesday night that the Taliban aimed to 鈥渕ake decisions together鈥� to establish an 鈥渋ndependent, Islamic system that is inclusive of all Afghans.鈥�
But another senior Taliban negotiator told CBS, anonymously, that only the Taliban have a back-up plan if talks fail: 鈥淥ur Plan A is a peaceful political solution, and Plan B, definitely a military takeover.鈥�
The current government, kept afloat by U.S. and other donor aid, is 鈥渢otally corrupt and incapable,鈥� the senior Talib official said. Any coalition would be a 鈥渟inking ship [that would] drown the Taliban as well.鈥�
鈥淣ow it鈥檚 the Taliban鈥檚 turn鈥� to lead Afghanistan for three to five years, he said, during which the militant group would work with foreigners and 鈥渆specially the U.S.,鈥� to 鈥減rove that, as the Taliban was a hard enemy, in the future we will be a solid and trustworthy partner.鈥�
The Kabul side aims to preserve the democratic status quo, which includes significant women鈥檚 rights, girls鈥� education, and media independence that have grown since the U.S. military ousted the Taliban in late 2001. But it has been plagued by corruption, crippled by political gridlock, and sapped by years of losing battles to the Taliban.
The militants, capitalizing on advances against American, NATO, and Afghan forces, have brought roughly half the country under their control and want back into the halls of power.
Afghan women
On the day the Taliban was toppled in 2001, and their strict brand of Islamic law lifted overnight, women danced in Kabul, removed their burkas to reveal their faces, and girls denied an education emerged from secret home schools.
鈥淣ow the time is over that the women of Afghanistan 鈥� Afghan girls in the bazaar or streets or stadiums 鈥撀燼re whipped,鈥� Gen. Asadullah Khalid, the acting defense minister, said Thursday, echoing the hopes of many Afghans as he called to 鈥減reserve all achievements鈥� at the intra-Afghan talks.
鈥淎fghan women in the past two decades became pilots, doctors, teachers, ministers, and deputies,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want a setback.鈥�
The Taliban say they have now evolved, will welcome women to high posts, allow girls education, and say they want to work with foreign donors to rebuild the country.
The government also is seeking to delegitimize the Taliban as 鈥渢errorists鈥� responsible for the vast majority of military and civilian deaths who don鈥檛 deserve recognition.
First Vice President Amrullah Saleh 鈥� whose convoy was targeted by an explosion on Sept. 9, killing 10 civilians 鈥� this week called the Taliban 鈥渟mall, ugly and violent鈥� and said they would be integrated into Afghan society by melting in a 鈥渃ommunity furnace.鈥�
Stonewalling on prisoners
The U.S-Taliban deal in February committed the Afghan government聽to release 5,000 captured Taliban fighters, in trade for the release of 1,000 members of the Afghan security forces. But the decision was made without the consent of the government, because the Taliban refused at the time to talk to what it called a 鈥淯.S. puppet鈥� regime.
The prisoner releases, meant to build trust and take place within days, instead took six months to complete, due largely to government stonewalling. Since the February signing, Taliban attacks killed more than 3,500 members of the Afghan security forces and 775 civilians, President Ghani said in late July.
The U.S.-Taliban deal did require the Taliban to cease attacks on withdrawing American and other foreign forces. But for Afghans, the agreement stipulated, a 鈥渃ease-fire鈥� would only be an agenda item during intra-Afghan talks.
鈥淭his moment that we sit here, tens of young people are being martyred, women widowed, children orphaned,鈥� the government鈥檚 chief negotiator Masoom Stanekzai told both sides Tuesday night. 鈥淭he biggest and most important priority of our people is to stop the bloodshed in the country.鈥�
But for the Taliban, continuing violence is their primary leverage, analysts say, and there is little reason for urgency.
鈥淭he Taliban is a body of logic; emotion doesn鈥檛 play much part,鈥� says Mr. Amiri, the Kabul analyst. 鈥淭rust building wouldn鈥檛 have much impact. 鈥�
鈥淭hey have a very firm sense of things that they discuss, and they are thinking and they want to achieve it,鈥� says Mr. Amiri.
鈥淭here is going to be some sort of regime change, whether we like it or not,鈥� he adds. 鈥淏ecause if you are talking about the future state, what is that, then?鈥�
