After US deal, Afghans see long road to peace. Still, they hope.
| KABUL, Afghanistan
The modest Khorshid Party Hall, damaged in a September bombing, has been rebuilt with the same ingredients Afghans are now applying to the landmark U.S.-Taliban withdrawal deal signed Saturday: a measure of hope, and a heavy dose of caution.
It was a Taliban suicide attack on a checkpoint near this hall in downtown Kabul that killed an American and more than a dozen others and prompted President Donald Trump to abruptly end nearly a year of closed-door talks with the Taliban as they were on the cusp of a deal.
Today this wedding venue has been repaired 鈥撀爄ts bouquets of fake flowers restored, its small glass chandeliers rehung 鈥撀爓ith the hope that weddings and spending will flourish once again, if intra-Afghan talks due to start March 10 yield a long-term peace.
Why We Wrote This
Hope is powerful, and hard to relinquish. So Afghans, no strangers to violence and uncertainty, are holding on to hope for peace, even as the details of the U.S.-Taliban deal require they do so cautiously.
But after sweeping up the glass smashed by the Sept. 5 blast, builders replaced it with plywood 鈥� hidden by curtains and wallpaper 鈥� as a precaution, in case this peace effort fails to stop the war in Afghanistan, and explosions resume.
U.S. officials heralded the deal, which followed a seven-day reduction in violence, as a 鈥渕onumental鈥� step toward ending America鈥檚 longest-ever war, with an initial drawdown from some 12,000 to 8,600 U.S. troops by May.
But the conditional, step-by-step process spelled out in the four-page document, signed with such fanfare Saturday in Doha, Qatar, is very specific on the withdrawal of 鈥渁ll foreign forces鈥� in 14 months, while very vague on how intra-Afghan talks will reconcile sworn enemies with opposing worldviews.
Indeed, the day after the signing, President Ashraf Ghani 鈥撀爓hose government was left out of the U.S.-Taliban negotiations 鈥撀爎ejected the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners, in exchange for up to 1,000 government detainees held by the Taliban, which the deal requires before March 10.
In response, the Taliban spokesman announced Monday that the reduction in violence was over, and that the insurgent group would resume 鈥渘ormal鈥� operations against Afghan security forces 鈥� though not U.S. targets.
As a result, many Afghans are tempering their hope, and recognize that the heavy lifting to end conflict here has barely begun.
鈥淓veryone wants peace, and we are hopeful for this deal,鈥� says Mohammad Najib Nasrat, manager of the wedding hall, who still bears a deep shrapnel scar on his leg from the explosion.
鈥淣ot only us 鈥� all Afghans are happy,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut we don鈥檛 know our future.鈥�
No cease-fire in deal
That uncertainty has only been amplified by the U.S.-Taliban deal for many Afghans, who were surprised to read that a 鈥減ermanent and comprehensive cease-fire鈥� 鈥撀爄n a war that has been killing and wounding 10,000 civilians a year since 2014 鈥� is no more than an agenda item in talks between the Taliban and 鈥淎fghan sides.鈥�
The deal does not name the official U.S.-backed government of President Ghani, which the Taliban dismisses as illegitimate, but which will by necessity lead a team at intra-Afghan talks.
And the jihadist force that the U.S. ousted from power in 2001, in the weeks following the 9/11 attacks, is described elliptically in the text as 鈥渢he Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban鈥� 鈥撀燼 legitimizing nod to Taliban insistence that they be called by the name of their former Islamist government.
The Taliban are repeatedly sending messages to their estimated 80,000 fighters that the withdrawal deal marks a victory for them, and the surrender of a superpower.
Taliban chiefs in Pakistan have also been sending voice messages encouraging fighters to kidnap local officials, to increase leverage for a prisoner exchange.
By sundown in Wardak Province alone, the Taliban stronghold southwest of Kabul, officials reported that three policemen and 55 civilians had been kidnapped.
Agreement as prologue
鈥淚n the book that鈥檚 written about the peace process that hopefully ends and resolves the 40 years of conflict in Afghanistan, [the Doha deal] is the Prologue, this isn鈥檛 even Chapter One,鈥� says Andrew Watkins, senior analyst for Afghanistan for the International Crisis Group.
The deal is the culmination of a difficult, 18-month process, he notes, and the two opposing Afghan sides have yet to even sit down at the same table.
In terms of global conflict resolution, from that point of face-to-face talks onward, it took four years to achieve peace in Colombia, and became multi-year processes in both the Philippines and South Sudan 鈥撀燿espite far weaker insurgencies in every case.
Analysts and Afghans alike note that colossal, even existential issues remain, from the shape of any interim government and final power-sharing structure, to the mechanism to possibly integrate Taliban fighters and Afghan security forces after years in which the insurgents portrayed their enemy as infidels.
鈥淭his deal doesn鈥檛 guarantee anything. ... It is very, very conditional,鈥� says Mr. Watkins. 鈥淭he U.S. government has written [it] in a way that allows them to cancel all of this withdrawal, if they are uncomfortable or unsatisfied with the Taliban鈥檚 behavior at any point.鈥�
And while President Trump has made clear his desire to end the 18-year American war in Afghanistan, the Taliban have sent mixed messages.
On one hand, the Taliban since last year began referring less to the government as a U.S. 鈥減uppet,鈥� and instead say 鈥淜abul administration.鈥� Shortly before signing the deal Saturday, Taliban leaders staged a small parade in Doha with a conciliatory message.
鈥淔or them to speak to their followers, in their most victorious moment of this conflict ... one of the first things out of their mouths is, 鈥楤rothers, don鈥檛 be inflammatory, don鈥檛 taunt your Afghan brothers, don鈥檛 use this as a chance to pick a fight,鈥欌�� says Mr. Watkins. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 an interesting message, that鈥檚 new language.鈥�
Deal is with U.S., 鈥渘ot Afghans鈥�
On the other hand, a Taliban spokesman stated Sunday that the insurgents struck a deal with the U.S. alone, 鈥渘ot Afghans.鈥� That suggested that the Taliban have changed little, especially to those in Kabul supportive of the U.S.-backed government, which has overseen years of significant progress in women鈥檚 rights and civil society.
鈥淭hat was confusing us. We were just worried about what that means: Are they going to harm Afghan forces, or the nation, again?鈥� asks Mina, a twenty-something who works at the Afghan Finance Ministry and would only give her first name.
鈥淔or decades we were kept away from education and from our basic rights, especially women were so harmed. ... Unfortunately since childhood we have those dark memories,鈥� says Mina, who wears turquoise nail polish and a headscarf that slips off while she talks.
鈥淎s a citizen of this country, of course we are all striving for peace. [The deal] was again making me happy and giving me strong feelings [of] a brighter future,鈥� she says.
But the text makes no mention of preserving women鈥檚 rights, about access to education, or not wearing the all-enveloping burqa 鈥撀燼ll issues the Taliban strictly forbade when in power in the late 1990s.
Other issues abound. For the government, Mr. Ghani was only last week declared to have been reelected in a September vote, but his main challenger disputes the result, leading to disunity 鈥撀燼nd therefore a weaker hand 鈥� among the political elite, says Fawzia Koofi, a former lawmaker and the first woman head of an Afghan political party, the Movement for Change in Afghanistan.
The Taliban also must control fighters who may prefer war over peace.
鈥淚 think it will give them zero credibility, if [the Taliban] continue to respect their agreement with the Americans but fight with Afghans,鈥� says Ms. Koofi, who twice met with Taliban leaders in Moscow in the past year.
鈥淪ome of these Taliban are born and grow up fighting. ... Their weapons give [them] a life and identity,鈥� she says. 鈥淗ow do you distance them from that identity, how do you bring them back to normal life? That is an opportunity, but that is a challenge.鈥�
