Why US assassination of Soleimani is unlikely to deter Iran
| London
Iran鈥檚 most powerful, revered, and feared military commander long said he dreamed of being a martyr for the 鈥渞esistance.鈥� And in the early hours Friday morning that wish was fulfilled, when an armed American drone assassinated Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.
U.S. officials portrayed the targeted killing as a 鈥減reemptive鈥� action against the chief of Iran鈥檚 elite Qods Force and the leader of the Iraqi Shiite Kata鈥檌b Hezbollah militia traveling with him. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said they were planning an imminent attack that he asserted would have cost 鈥渄ozens or hundreds of American lives.鈥�
Yet rather than acting as a deterrent, the U.S. strike is being seen in Iran as an acute escalation that amounts to a declaration of war and requires a military response.
Why We Wrote This
The decision by President Trump to launch the strike that killed a top Iranian general is being seen as an acute escalation, raising questions about what the administration expected. Was there a disconnect?
It is the latest in a series of events to raise tensions in Iraq in the past week 鈥撀爄ncluding the killing of an American contractor on an Iraqi base, a U.S. retaliatory strike that killed at least two dozen members of the Iran-backed Kata鈥檌b Hezbollah, and, in turn, an attack led by that militia on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Together, they have brought the smoldering U.S.-Iran standoff to a new level of violence, and could trigger a much broader and more lethal direct conflict.
President Donald Trump tweeted a picture of an American flag shortly after the United States claimed responsibility for the drone strike. He later tweeted that General Soleimani 鈥渒illed or badly wounded thousands of Americans鈥� and 鈥渟hould have been taken out many years ago.鈥�
But many are raising questions about the administration鈥檚 calculations in killing one of Iran鈥檚 most popular and iconic symbols of resistance. Despite ample opportunities, past American presidents and Israeli commanders had refrained from taking him out amid the high risk and uncertain consequences of global retaliation by Iran and its loyal proxies.
As tensions flare, questions are also being raised about the apparent disconnect between policymakers in Washington and the realities in Iraq and Iran where, analysts say, American boasting about the assassination of General Soleimani is likely to energize and motivate Iranian-led retaliation.
鈥淭he irony here is that an action that was supposed to deter additional Iranian attacks in the region is now bound to do the exact opposite,鈥� says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.
鈥淧resident Trump has helped to consolidate the most hard-line elements within the Islamic Republic,鈥� says Mr. Vaez, contacted in Oman.
Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 鈥渋s averse to demonstrating weakness, and if Iran fails to respond, that鈥檚 how it鈥檚 going to be interpreted in Washington, and would invite additional U.S. attacks,鈥� says Mr. Vaez. 鈥淚ran has developed this network of proxies and partners throughout the region precisely for this moment.鈥�
U.S.-Iraq ties at risk
The assassination has also jeopardized U.S. ties to Iraq, and galvanized calls for the expulsion of more than 5,000 American troops deployed there. Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi called the killing 鈥渁 dangerous escalation鈥� that will ignite a 鈥渄evastating war in Iraq, the region and the world.鈥�
鈥淭his is just the beginning,鈥� says an Iraqi official in Baghdad who asked not to be named. 鈥淪o far you鈥檝e had a few bits of glass broken [at the U.S. Embassy] ... a few walls that were spray-painted. There鈥檚 much more to come.鈥�
鈥淚 personally believe that the United States misread the situation,鈥� says the official. 鈥淭hey are able to tell their audience back home that, 鈥榃e got the guys that have been targeting us, and we were able to respond strongly.鈥欌��
But the American troops in Iraq, adds the official, are 鈥渓ow-hanging fruit,鈥� and vulnerable to attack by Iran and its Shiite militia allies. Indeed, Iranian commanders have warned for decades that they would respond to any American attack by targeting U.S. forces ringing the region, from the Persian Gulf to Afghanistan.
In Washington, the Pentagon announced Friday that the U.S. was sending 3,500 more American troops to the Middle East.
Iran reacted with fury over the death of聽General Soleimani, who has masterminded an unprecedented expansion of Iranian influence in the past decade, as the Qods Force 鈥撀爐he elite branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that handles operations abroad 鈥� marshaled Shiite militia forces from Lebanon to Syria and Iraq to Yemen, to battle Iran鈥檚 enemies.
Ayatollah Khamenei on Friday praised聽General Soleimani鈥檚 鈥渓ofty status鈥� as a martyr and warned in a tweet that 鈥�#SevereRevenge awaits the criminals who have stained their hands鈥� with聽General Soleimani鈥檚 blood.
鈥淭he Americans have been scrambling for a time not knowing what to do, but basically watching as those they consider to be their biggest enemies gain more and more influence over the Iraqi state,鈥� says Renad Mansour, an Iraq expert at the Chatham House think tank in London.
鈥淭his for them was to perhaps reassert its dominance with air power. But obviously the backlash would lead one to believe it wasn鈥檛 a wise move,鈥� says Mr. Mansour.
鈥淚t seems some of the more political parts of the American political establishment 鈥� the National Security Council, the White House 鈥撀爂ot a bit excited about all the anti-Iran sentiment coming out of Iraq.鈥�
Media campaign in Iran
Unique among Iranian commanders,聽General Soleimani 鈥撀爓ho cut his teeth as a military leader during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s 鈥� was the subject of a media campaign devoted to showing him in charge on the front lines against the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria.
General聽Soleimani and the Shiite militias he helped to create in Iraq are often credited with swiftly intervening to save Baghdad in mid-2014, when ISIS swept across Iraq. But the continued influence and corruption of those Iran-backed militias 鈥撀燼nd the role of聽General Soleimani himself, who brokered the deal that created Iraq鈥檚 current government 鈥撀爃ave in recent months raised anti-Iranian sentiment among Iraqi protesters demanding political reforms.
Iraqi protesters have also bristled at reports that the Iranian general helped orchestrate the tough crackdown and use of snipers against Iraqi protesters that took more than 500 lives.
In response, Iranian consulates in the Shiite shrine cities of Najaf and Karbala have been attacked and burned multiple times, and the offices of pro-Iranian militias and their political parties torched.
But analysts say the retaliatory U.S. airstrikes on bases of the Iran-backed Kata鈥檌b Hezbollah on Dec. 29, following the death of the contractor and several rocket attacks by Shiite militias, were seen by many in Iraq as disproportionate, resulting in the breach of the American Embassy and providing evidence of a lack of U.S. political awareness in Iraq.
For example, a senior State Department official, when asked by a journalist about the possible consequences of the missile strikes, said, 鈥淲e don鈥檛 have any fears in this regard.鈥� Yet within hours, the Baghdad embassy was subject to an unprecedented attack, during which U.S. diplomats were in hiding for nearly two days and the walls were daubed with pro-Soleimani slogans.
Iran 鈥渟et a trap鈥�
鈥淚t is another example of U.S. foreign policy being disoriented, as it has always been, regarding Iraq,鈥� says Abbas Kadhim, director of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
Iran or their allies in Iraq, he says, 鈥渟et a trap鈥� for the U.S. by killing the American contractor, which elicited the missile strike on the Shiite militia 鈥� and fanned anti-American sentiment.
鈥淪trategically, this is exactly giving the provocateurs what they wanted, which is turning the United States from an ally that helps Iraq fight its enemies, into a force that is bombing Iraqis,鈥� says Mr. Kadhim.
The result simply tapped into the fact that Iraqis today often reject all foreign influence, American as well as Iranian.
鈥淲e have a lot of people [in Washington] who are thinking in jingoistic terms, which is completely detached from the reality on the ground in Iraq,鈥� says Mr. Kadhim. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very popular in Washington to give a narrative that, 鈥極h, we are loved in Iraq,鈥� and, 鈥楬ow dare you say that the Iraqis don鈥檛 like us to be there, and we are better than the Iranians.鈥� This is just nonsense.鈥�
The result is that the death of聽General Soleimani 鈥� the man who has garnered the highest approval ratings in Iran,聽with polls showing that 2 out of 3 Iranians held a favorable opinion of him 鈥� will have an impact, if not on Iran鈥檚 ability to exact revenge.
鈥淲ithout any doubt, it鈥檚 a severe blow to the Qods Force, but it鈥檚 certainly not a fatal one,鈥� says Mr. Vaez of the International Crisis Group. Iran immediately named聽General Soleimani鈥檚 longtime deputy, Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, as the new Qods Force chief.
General Ghaani 鈥渕ight not have the same strategic vision or tactical skills,鈥� says Mr. Vaez. 鈥淏ut the entire network that Soleimani has already laid throughout the region is for sure going to remain functional and will pose a threat to U.S. interests.鈥�
