For Palestinians, sudden wave of election talk rekindles hope
| RAMALLAH, West Bank
For an entire generation of Palestinians, participating in national elections is something never before experienced. Many barely recall the last time a parliamentary vote was held, 14 years ago.
But with a steady stream of pronouncements about elections back in the national dialogue, there鈥檚 an uptick in optimism among Palestinians that they may finally go back to the polls to elect a legislature and a president.
And after years of infighting and acrimony between President Mahmoud Abbas鈥� Fatah party and the Islamist Hamas that has paralyzed domestic Palestinian politics, the two bitter rivals have agreed in principle to hold a long-awaited election as a step toward mending the rift.
Why We Wrote This
It鈥檚 easy to list the obstacles to progress in the Middle East. Local residents regard promises with skepticism. Still, for a new generation of Palestinians, talk of presidential and parliamentary elections is tantalizing.
鈥淵es, I鈥檓 excited. I鈥檓 25, and I鈥檝e never voted before. I鈥檓 waiting to see who鈥檚 going to be the next president and who I鈥檓 going to vote for,鈥� says Anas Tzahboub, a soccer coach. 鈥淚t鈥檚 important for Palestinians to choose their leader.鈥澛�
To be sure, formidable obstacles remain that may prevent a vote from ever getting off the ground. For one, despite Mr. Abbas鈥� vow at the United Nations General Assembly in September to issue a decree for elections, he has yet to do so 鈥� stoking concern he might not follow through for fear Fatah might lose at the ballot box.聽聽
Then there鈥檚 Israel, which has yet to say whether it will allow Palestinians under its control in contested East Jerusalem to participate. Mr. Abbas insisted Sunday that including Jerusalemites in the voting is essential for the elections to take place.聽
Finally, there鈥檚 the feud between Fatah and Hamas, which seized power in Gaza in 2007 from the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority.
For more than a decade, the leading Palestinian parties have failed at repeated efforts at compromise 鈥� preferring divided rule despite overwhelming public sentiment on behalf of reconciliation. The enduring bad blood could play a role in snagging the vote over unresolved聽procedural details of how the elections will be held.聽
鈥淭here is a lot of frustration that the Palestinian division was the reason for the stalemate, and the inability of the Palestinians to hold parliamentary and presidential elections,鈥欌�� says Mkaimar Abusada, a political science professor at Al Azhar University in the Gaza Strip.
鈥淓lections were supposed to be the outcome of reconciliation,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut after repeated failures,聽the president said we should do it the other way around. Elections will be the key, the first step to Palestinian reconciliation.鈥�
Public sentiment
A by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research highlighted ambivalence among the Palestinian public about the prospect for a successful vote.
On the one hand, 52% of Palestinians said they expect elections to be held soon, up from 38% three months earlier. Some 68% said they would participate.
On the other hand, only 42% said they believe the elections would be free and fair. And about two-thirds of those polled said they doubted that Fatah or Hamas would cede power if defeated.
Years of mothballed domestic politics, stalemated peace talks with Israel, and violent upheaval around the wider Middle East have deflated Palestinian expectations for progress. In shops and on the streets in central Ramallah, the seat of the Palestinian Authority, the suggestion of elections 鈥� or intikhab 鈥� occasionally evokes cynical laughter.
Some said reaching a peace deal with Israel is more important.
Willah Abdel Wahab, a 30-year-old lawyer from Ramallah, says that when elections are finally called, she鈥檒l carefully consider her choice for a party, though she prefers one that isn鈥檛 Fatah or Hamas. Still, she is deeply skeptical that a vote would substantially change Palestinian politics 鈥� or that one will be called at all.
鈥淓lected officials haven鈥檛 done anything,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 going to change anything. Because it鈥檚 the same people. Even if the president is going to change it will be the same people.鈥�
Indeed, elections have been few and far between since the Palestinians got autonomous rule in 1994 following the 1993 signing of the first Oslo Accord between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization.
There have been two presidential elections: Yasser Arafat, the longtime PLO leader, was elected with 88% of the vote in 1996; and in 2005, Mr. Abbas received 63%. The 2006 parliamentary election counted as the one contest between Hamas and Fatah 鈥� a victory for Hamas. The four-year terms of Mr. Abbas and the parliament have long since expired, and last year the president said he would dissolve the legislature.
鈥淲e need elections as soon as possible. People have been deprived of their right to elections for more than 10 years, and that鈥檚 more than anyone can tolerate,鈥� says Mustafa Barghouti, who ran for president against Mr. Abbas in 2005. 鈥淲e have a whole younger generation 鈥� the vast majority of the voters 鈥� who have never had the chance to vote.鈥�
Palestinians have long since grown weary of Mr. Abbas. Nearly two-thirds believe he should resign. At the same time, frustration has grown in Gaza with Hamas鈥� rule and the economic crisis caused by Israel鈥檚 blockade of the territory.
鈥淚f elections were to take place, everyone would be shocked by the results. Neither Hamas nor Fatah would win,鈥� says Nashat Aqtash, who advised the pro-Hamas Reform and Change party in the West Bank in 2006. 鈥淚f there鈥檚 a third party that was well organized, it could win.鈥�
Why has Mr. Abbas renewed the election push after so many years?
Observers have offered several explanations. One is that the Palestinian Authority has come under pressure from European donor countries to hold a vote. Another theory is that the goal of elections will dominate the agenda because of its popularity, and distract from criticism of the PA. A third explanation holds that Mr. Abbas is seeking to pressure Hamas, which boycotted a recent round of municipal elections.
鈥淗is goal is not for better representation through elections, but rather his goal is to try to mitigate the competition from Hamas. I think he was surprised Hamas accepted,鈥� says Sam Bahour, a Palestinian American businessman and political analyst.
An Israeli veto?
The Palestinian Authority formally notified Israel this month that it planned to hold the election in East Jerusalem, which Palestinians demand as their future capital in any peace deal with Israel. Though the city鈥檚 341,000 Arab residents have participated in previous Palestinian elections 鈥� as required by the peace accords 鈥� Israel鈥檚 right-wing government has not given an answer. The push for Palestinian elections comes as their Israeli neighbors have been mired in a political crisis that has forced three general elections in less than 12 months.聽聽聽聽聽
On Dec. 29, Mr. Abbas told a meeting of the Fatah party that there would be no vote without participation of Palestinians who live 鈥渋n the heart鈥� of the city. But many Palestinians believe that elections are too important to be held up over the dispute over Jerusalem.聽聽聽
鈥淚 don鈥檛 agree with placing a veto in Israel鈥檚 hands by saying, 鈥業f Israel doesn鈥檛 allow elections in Jerusalem, elections won鈥檛 happen,鈥欌�� says Mr. Bahour. 鈥淚 think that that鈥檚 placing a strategic need in the hands of an entity that doesn鈥檛 have any interest in moving Palestinian internal politics forward.鈥�
It鈥檚 still far from assured, however, whether Hamas and Fatah are ready to agree on the details holding one unified election. Over the years of estrangement, Mr. Abbas鈥� security forces have jailed Islamists in the West Bank, and Hamas has done the same with opponents in Gaza.
Once Mr. Abbas issues a decree, the two parties must reach an accord about what force will be responsible for securing the vote, and which court will preside over legal challenges. There鈥檚 also a rule that requires candidates to聽swear allegiance to the Palestine Liberation Organization in writing 鈥� which is problematic for Hamas members who are ideologically opposed to the PLO鈥檚 peace deal with Israel.
The stymied politics from all sides have 鈥渄oused water on the fire鈥� for change among Palestinians, says Murad Odeh, a 42-year old shopkeeper with a jewelry store on Ramallah鈥檚 Al-Manara Square. Palestinian leaders, like others in Israel and countries elsewhere, suffer from an addiction to power, he says.聽聽聽聽
鈥淭he bigger problem is that someone when gets in the chair, they don鈥檛 want to leave,鈥� he says. 鈥淚 hope it鈥檚 going to change.鈥�
