Can Lebanon鈥檚 young uprising withstand embrace of the 鈥榤achine鈥�?
| AMMAN, Jordan
And now, the 鈥渕achine鈥� strikes back 鈥� with a warm embrace.
Lebanese activists whose anti-corruption protests led Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his government to resign are confronting the reality that they are facing down more than just a government, but an entrenched political class that is refusing to give an inch.
Even as the young protesters united across sectarian lines to demand a strengthened judiciary and government accountability and transparency, so too are Lebanon鈥檚 political elites closing ranks in the face of the popular will, going to any length to prevent such reforms from taking place.
Why We Wrote This
At the heart of Lebanon鈥檚 strife is a classic confrontation between an idealistic protest movement angered by corruption and an entrenched political elite with much to lose and many levers to pull.
It鈥檚 testing the resilience of the economic recession-fueled movement, which is calling for an end to a sectarian system that has allowed political leaders to mismanage services with impunity while awarding themselves billions in government contracts.
After floundering for days when the nationwide protests took them by surprise on Oct. 17, Lebanon鈥檚 political leaders are trying every tack: dismissal, condemnation, intimidation, violence, and division.聽
But even the tried-and-true accusations of a 鈥淶ionist plot鈥� or a U.S.-backed conspiracy have failed to stick.
Now, with the resignation of Mr. Hariri last week, leaders of the various sectarian political groups are trying to co-opt the protest movement, embracing demonstrators in a bid to regain supporters while heading off discussions of deeper structural reforms.
After a week of rising violence in which he blamed foreign powers for the protests and warned of 鈥渃haos鈥� if the government resigned, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah appeared in a televised speech on Friday urging that 鈥渢he new government must listen to the demands of the people who took to the streets.鈥�
鈥淭here must be serious work, because time is tight and so is people鈥檚 patience,鈥� Mr. Nasrallah said.
Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, whose Shiite party Amal joined in the physical assaults on protesters, said he now supported a 鈥渢echno-political鈥� cabinet that 鈥渞epresents the protest movement.鈥�
In a televised address Friday, President Michel Aoun, a 海角大神 ally of Hezbollah, called sectarianism a 鈥渄estructive disease,鈥� adding that 鈥渕inisters should be chosen according to their competencies and expertise, not political loyalties.鈥�
And, trying to riff on protesters鈥� trademark chant demanding government resignations of 鈥渁ll of them, means all of them,鈥� the aging President Aoun proclaimed Sunday: 鈥淚 love every one of you; and 鈥業 love all of you,鈥� means all of you.鈥�
Even Mr. Hariri is reportedly waiting in the wings for a return to government and is trying to rebrand himself as a reformer who took a stand by stepping down.
The deeper crisis
But despite the verbal concessions there has been little talk of what ignited the protests: the abuse of state funds and the political leaders鈥� power to enrich themselves and leave citizens dependent on mafia-like patronage networks that encompass government contracts and public employment.
鈥淭he Lebanese political class refuses to acknowledge that this is not only an economic crisis, but a deep crisis at the heart of the Lebanese political system,鈥� says Makram Rabah, a Lebanese analyst and lecturer at the American University of Beirut.
鈥淭hey simply do not want a technocratic government or an independent judiciary because they do not want to give up control of the judiciary or bureaucracy,鈥� says Dr. Rabah. 鈥淏ut the main reason protesters are in the streets is the fact that we don鈥檛 have a separation of powers, and more importantly, we don鈥檛 have accountability.鈥�
Instead, leaders are retreating to their sectarian audiences to claim that they are reformers being obstructed by the other political groups and, implicitly, sects.
鈥淭hese leaders are saying 鈥業 am trying to reform the system, but my partners are stopping me,鈥� without saying who their partners are and what reforms they are proposing,鈥� says Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at American University of Beirut.
鈥淓veryone is trying to depict themselves as a reformer fighting against a corrupt political system, but in reality they are just protecting each other鈥檚 backs.鈥�
Hezbollah
The most influential player in Lebanese politics is the one with the most to lose, Hezbollah.
The Shiite paramilitary-political group dominates the Lebanese government with its coalition of Shiite and 海角大神 allies holding a majority in parliament and key cabinet portfolios and its close 海角大神 ally, Mr. Aoun, serving as president.
Analysts say Hezbollah sees protesters鈥� demands 鈥� particularly a nonsectarian technocrat government and a separation of powers 鈥� as a direct threat.
Greater independence for government institutions could threaten the group鈥檚 supply of materials, weapons, and funds from Iran that enable it to retain military superiority in Lebanon and act as an Iranian security pressure point against Israel.
Any change to monetary policy, such as floating the Lebanese pound or adjusting the peg to the U.S. dollar to curb rising inflation on local markets, would immediately hit Hezbollah鈥檚 coffers. Various U.S. sanctions and restrictions on global financial institutions have made the group heavily reliant on the Lebanese currency.
Hezbollah itself has alleged that the protests were a conspiracy to 鈥渦ndermine鈥� and 鈥渄isarm鈥� the movement, which has fought a war with Israel and most recently was instrumental in propping up the Assad government in Syria. Its military power surpasses even that of the Lebanese Army.
Last week, Hezbollah showed how far it would go when it launched a campaign of violence and intimidation on its own constituents in southern Lebanon before sending its enforcers to break up protest camps in the heart of Beirut and assault unarmed women.
Analysts say this threat of violence is not meant to tip Lebanon into civil strife, but is a tactic meant to intimidate protesters and push them to consolidate back to their sectarian lines, where they are divided and dependent on political elites.
Sectarian 鈥渕achine鈥�
But what makes Hezbollah even more impervious to pressure is the political mechanism that activists and observers liken to a 鈥渨all鈥� or a 鈥渕achine.鈥�
Even if protesters succeed in pushing for the formation of a technocrat government to enact reforms, observers warn that the new government would be up against an entire system built and fortified as a sectarian patronage network.
鈥淭hey are calling for a technocrat government, but then that government will have to report to parliament, which is divided along sectarian lines,鈥� says Dr. Khashan. 鈥淭he government will also have to deal with the bureaucracy and institutions, and the bureaucracy in Lebanon is sectarian to the bone.鈥�
Yet analysts say activists are likely to push on.
鈥淲hen protesters say 鈥榓ll of them, means all of them,鈥� they actually do understand that these people might stick around, but they are insisting they stick around under new measures and new rules,鈥� says Dr. Rabah, the analyst.
鈥淲e cannot import politicians from Mars, but certainly these people must realize that the only way forward is a transition from this current archaic political system to a more modern one that fits the 21st century.鈥�
